Hybrid war could replace 'forever war' in Afghanistan

[Klaralven]

...

The grand strategy
As in Syria, local Afghan militia groups can be brought into the fight against the Taliban. Afghan warlords have worked with the Pentagon and the US Central Intelligence Agency previously. Equally, the lobby of Pentagon contractors is very influential in the Washington Beltway and the White House is all but certain to extend their contracts.

The grand strategy appears to be: a) beef up the capacity of the Afghan forces, which would prevent an outright Taliban takeover but without the US taking on any combat duties; b) copy from the Russian playbook in Syria by heavily using airpower without putting boots on the ground; and c) make the Taliban realize through a war of attrition that there is no alternative to a negotiated settlement.

In an interesting role reversal from Syria, the US will claim that its involvement in Afghanistan is at the invitation of the Kabul government. Indeed, if the strategy is seen to be working, other NATO countries can be expected to join the fray, as happened in Syria and Iraq, embedded in the militia groups or Afghan military units.

The strength of the Pentagon contractors is put at 18,000 personnel, the bulk of whom have served in the US military previously. The activities of the Wagner Group in Libya and some African countries apparently provide an inspiring model for the Pentagon.

...

Most important, the Taliban’s success through the coming six to eight weeks to batter, demoralize and destroy the Afghan armed forces and shift the politico-military balance in their favor will be a key factor in the shape of things to come.

This is where Afghanistan is fundamentally different from Syria. The US is overlooking the big role Iran played in tandem with Russia to turn the tide of the Syrian conflict.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/hybrid-war-could-replace-forever-war-in-afghanistan/

[rampartc]

1. lolololol oh great! "vietnamization? "

here we go again! arming and training more enemies.

[Act_of_Reparation]

2. "War of Attrition"

A strategy so dim it is probably true.

We've spent the better part of my adult life killing Taliban in Afghanistan, and it seems to have had little effect on them. That's the advantage to leading a cadre of god-bothering zealots: you'll never want for goobers unafraid, if not eager, to die for the invisible wizard in the sky.

For the Taliban to start feeling the attrition part of this war thereof, they need to lose assets they cannot replace. That means curbing recruitment, and there's only so much we can do about that.