Florida reports massive Covid surge 6,425 new cases today

[Johnny2X2X]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

71 deaths.

FL, MO, AR, TX, and CA are about 60% of the cases right now, things are going to get really bad in some of those states in the coming few weeks.

[PortTack]

1. It's only a matter of time b4 all states, maybe with the exception of highly vaccinated states will

Seeing surges

Wear your mask!

[LisaL]

2. Delta is able to break through the vaccines.

So it will likely go up in all states.

[LifeLongDemocratic]

11. Rare

It is rare for a vaccinated person (J&J, Moderna or Pfizer vaccines) to get COVID and if they do it is a very mild case.

[LisaL]

13. Not necessarily true.

Vaccinated people can get seriously ill and die.
And with delta, it's not so rare for it to break through.

[Ms. Toad]

24. There are people on DU who have long-haul COVID

acquired post-vaccination. and others who have had relatives die from COVID acquired months after vaccination. So it is not necessarily mild.

And no, it's not rare - 5% (mRNA) -25% (J&J) is not rare, and the percentages are significantly higher with the Delta variant.

[Prendy]

41. Huh?

Source?

[Ms. Toad]

42. They have posted in General Discussion,

So the source is the DU members who reported on their own experiences in this forum.

I'll take a quick look, but feel free to search for yourself.

ETA: PA_Jen's father: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215542785 (ultimately, he died: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215549050)

ETA#2: OhioChick & her son (long-haulers post-vaccination): https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15623979; Son's Girlfriend fully vaccinated - sick with COVID (I found it earlier, and lost it again.)

[Johonny]

43. California is highly vaccinated

It's just has a lot of people so even with 60 percent with one shot that's millions unvaccinated.

[Ocelot II]

3. We got 386 new cases here in MN, a slight uptick.

Why is FL so much worse?

[Johnny2X2X]

5. DeSantis

They didn't limit much in terms of capacity and refused to enforce mask mandates.

[Ocelot II]

7. Yeah, I know. My question was rhetorical.

We have a Dem governor. GOPers fought him every inch of the way on mask mandates but he mostly won.

[ProfessorGAC]

40. Similar Here In Illinois

578 cases yesterday. FL had about 11.5x the cases.
I know there's lots of tourism, but this is still a huge per capita difference.

[marybourg]

4. AZ had a really bad case report today also:

1945.

[raccoon]

6. whoopee we're all gonna die! Nt

[LisaL]

9. Some sooner than others.

NT

[LifeLongDemocratic]

12. No, they are all going to die.

We are vaccinated

[Aristus]

8. Wow, Florida. That must really suck.

It's a shame there was nothing you could do to prevent it...

[LifeLongDemocratic]

10. Karma

Should have gotten vaccinated. No lines, no waiting. Thin out that republicon herd.

[lagomorph777]

14. Huh! I wonder why?

Looks like Guvnor DeSatan is succeeding in his goal to kill as many Reptilian Florida Men and Women (and innocent children) as possible.

[liberal_mama]

15. I live in Erie County, New York and our daily new cases have been very low

Like 4 or 5 cases a day. We even had a recent day where we had no cases. Then yesterday we had 20 cases. Now today, we have 48 cases. I hope we're not about to have another surge.

[FloridaBlues]

16. In Florida you would never know we are in a surge. Minimal coverage in papers and tv.

And a Governor who never talks about it.

[LisaL]

17. A good way to get an even bigger surge.

NT

[Baitball Blogger]

18. Happy Fourth of July, y'all!

[Jim__]

19. I guess if we have a serious resurgence of the pandemic, the trumpers can blame it all on Biden.

So, their "strategy" will be a success.

[global1]

37. Can't Blame It On Biden If The Majority Of The Cases, Hospitalizations & Deaths Are...

in the unvaccinated. Biden has done everything he can to make the vaccine available and provide sites where people can get vaccinated.

If the majority of cases, hospitalizations & deaths are because people are unvaccinated - it is on them and those that are fueling the conspiracies about the vaccinations and not Biden.

[modrepub]

20. Probably Underestimated

Any numbers are probably a floor. You aren't going to capture anyone who's asymptomatic (and spreading COVID). Even minor cases are not going to make it into any reports if no one actually feels sick enough or is made to take a test. You'll only get a real feel for the impacts at the hospital level.

Take any COVID numbers with grains of salt. Any reports you see are going to under represent actual numbers. It's probably nearly impossible to get an actual independent accounting since medical information is not public information. Also keep in mind most county and state health departments are under funded, under staffed and probably operate using antiquated reporting systems/software. It's a perfect opportunity for a cluster f*ck.

[roamer65]

21. If you are vaccinated, wear masks.

You should be fine.

A decent mask should protect a vaccinated person and you may not catch influenza or noroviruses either!

You don’t want the flu or gastroenteritis with SARS-CoV-2 hanging around.

[Ms. Toad]

22. US Cases are up 109% over 14 days ago.

If cases continue to grow at this rate, we'll be at around 200,000 cases/day by early September.

Hope people start recognizing COVID is not done with us yet so we can stop this while it is still possible to stop.

[LisaL]

23. Doesn't exponential growth accelerate?

If so we will get there sooner.

[Ms. Toad]

34. The exponental is built into the process of doubling.

Each double is twice as big as the pevious one, since the base is larger. We're currently doubling at between 13 and 14 days.

There's roughly 12000 cases/day on average over the last 2 weeks. (FWIW - we're over 20,000 already today, with 3+ hours to go)

Two weeks from now that would be 24,000(July 28)
Two weeks later that would be 48,000 (August 11)
Two weeks later that would be 96,000 (August 25)
Two weeks later that would be 192,000 (September 8)

Note: I do not have the robust database I used for predictions Spring 2020 - Spring 2021. (Keeping up with the corrections were killing me - nearly every time I entered data I had to modify close to a year's worth of data. Now that we're going back up again pretty rapidly I'll take the time to update it sooner rather than later.)

So this is just a very rough warning-flag-calculation based on the NYT data that had a 94% increase (yesterday), and a 109% increase (today) (each over a 14-day perod)).

[LisaL]

28. Again, it's not accurate.

It's not per week.

[LisaL]

32. Look at NYT calculator.

Fl is averaging close to 6 k per day.

[Pobeka]

33. Yes, the 6k per day is (kinda) right (and so is my assertion it's once a week reporting).

I assumed the worldometer had used the daily increment, but apparently it is averaging by week now too.

I don't know where world-o-meter gets it's base data from, but at 24k a week, the daily average should be about 3400. FL isn't due to update it's numbers for 2 more days...

It will certainly increase, and 6400 could be in the ballpark.

Sorry for the confusion. (I'm deleting my posts)

[LisaL]

38. 24k was last week (From Fl Cdc website).

This week is going to be higher.

[Pobeka]

39. Yep. I think it'll be about 35k

Again, sorry for the confusion of the once a week thing.

I went looking for world-o-meters data sources, and found nothing. CNN had an article about world-o-meter that suggests maybe it's not the best data source. I think for USA data Johns Hopkins is probably much better curated.

[Pobeka]

45. Wow, FL is 45k for this last week (Jul 9 - Jul 15) !

Essentially doubled.

[LisaL]

26. No.

Fl is not having only 6,000 per week. It was over 24,000 last week.

[LisaL]

30. Look at NYT calculator

Fl is averaging close to 6k per day.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html

[Nanjeanne]

35. Thank God CT is a highly vaccinated state. I was bemoaning the 141 new cases yesterday.

But every state except Maine I think was up. And once those southerners start coming up north - it’s going to affect us all. It’s extraordinary how political a vaccine that we can see data on helps bring the cases down has become. Scary to be so blind.

[malaise]

36. Blame Deathsentence

[Solly Mack]

44. I feel so owned.

Snort.