Could Covid 19 blow up to pre vaccine levels?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Could Covid 19 blow up to pre vaccine levels if thirty percent of the population refuses to be vaccinated and what are the ramifications?

[unblock]

1. Well certainly if the unvaccinated incubate a breakthrough variant...

Absent that, we'd have to have even more than double the pre-vaccine infection rate if you assume 30% unvaccinated.

That's possible, though one would hope by the time it approached that some sense would start to dawn on these people...

[Cracklin Charlie]

2. Already has in my state.

My daughter is afraid that she’s facing another virtual year.

[former9thward]

10. What state?

[Cracklin Charlie]

25. Missouri

Southwest Missouri is a disaster.

I am hearing that this outbreak has lots of the vaccine hesitant rushing to get the vaccine. Some places are offering them ways to receive it secretly, so they don’t have to feel the shame of taking a life saving vaccine.

[former9thward]

31. Missouri is not clsoe to what it was at the heighth of the pandemic

As of July 15th , 7 day average is 1791 cases. On March 13, 2021 it was 7167. On Nov 19, 2020 it was 5007. The deaths have gone from a 7 day average in Dec, 2020 of 75 a day to 15 a day in July 2021.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/missouri-covid-cases.html

[FBaggins]

35. Even lower than that

The 7-day average for MO COVID deaths has fallen to the low single digits on worldometers

[Ocelot II]

3. No, do the math.

If 30% won't vaccinate that means 70% will. It's probably not enough for herd immunity but it's enough to prevent the widespread illness and deaths that we saw last year. It will be (and already is in some areas) very bad in those areas where the vaccination rate is low and morons won't wear masks but it will not be the same in areas where there are high vaccination rates. Nationally it will not reach the levels seen last November.

[Ms. Toad]

16. The baseline is 15%, since 15% of the population are under the age of 12 -

and ineligible to be vaccinated. So IF 70% of those eligible get vaccinated, that still leaves only 60% of the population vaccinated.

Of those 60%, some are vaccinated with J&J - which is ony 75% effective against the original variant, and likely considerably likely against the Delta variant

And the Delta variant is considerably more effective at transmitting itself than the original variant - which means more illness for the same exposure. The effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines is only about 80% after taking into account the smaller exposure needed. the J&J vaccines are only about 50% as effective for the same exposure.

There are plenty of folks still around who are unvaccinated - or could become breakthrough cases. We are nowhere near herd immunity - and with the increased infectiveness and decreased effectiveness of the vaccine we are on track to be there in September/October.

(At the rate we were growing 2 days ago, we hit 200,000 cases around the 1st week in September. The doubling time has decreased - as of a couple of hours ago we are up - nationally - 121% over 14 days ago based on total cases in that 2-weeek period.)

[Quixote1818]

17. It's going to rampage through the giant pockets with only 25 to 30% vaccinated.

It spreads twice as fast and they are not likely to put in many restrictions this time until hospitals are full. That means low vaccinated areas are going to get absolutely clobbered this round! I mean absolutely obliterated! It could reach 200,000 cases a day if you factor in all those large pockets of low vaccination rates. We will see.

[lagomorph777]

29. It will have very significant effects on electoral outcomes.

High correlation between MAGATS and antivaxxers / antimaskers means the Reptilians are decimating the ranks of their own voters. We stand to gain. I don't give a shit how much suffering they inflict on themselves. I'm just happy they are weakening their filthy party.

Of course, I am very sad for their children, who are likely to suffer almost as much from Delta as their idiot parents.

[sheshe2]

4. Yes.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. No, not really.

And keep in mind that the vaccinated are almost never hospitalized and they don't die. Which isn't to be casual about the seriousness of a covid infection, but still. . . .

[Peppertoo]

6. Not in terms of hospitalizations or deaths

[roamer65]

7. Depends on how efficient Delta is in it's spread.

We will see.

[LisaL]

23. It seems to have no problems spreading around.

NT

[BigmanPigman]

8. I don't think so but looking at the UK today

know I could be wrong.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[Decoy of Fenris]

9. Only about 10% of Americans have been exposed to Covid pre-Delta (35 mil)

Given that vaccine breakthroughs can happen (if rarely) and given that 100-ish million people are still unvaccinated, I think there's -plenty- of room for far more damage to happen, even if it solely and exclusively hits the unvaxxed and disregarding breakthroughs completely.

There's a ton of 'If' still on the table, and I believe it's entirely possible that the worst is still before us. The prudent thing to do would be to re-enter lockdowns like Australia does (Two cases? Lock down a state for a week), just give the virus nowhere to go. Pure and utter lockdown, a month of "No one leaves their homes unless they're picking up essentials like food and water, enforced by police."

Combined with masking and distancing, it would be a small inconvenience to safeguard tens of millions of lives, vaxxed or not.

[former9thward]

11. No, the exposed is far higher.

The CDC says the number of Covid cases in the U.S. is 115 million. Many either unreported or assymptomatic. You might argue thousands of lives are at risk (unvaxxed) but millions, let alone tens of millions are not at risk. The math is not there.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

[Decoy of Fenris]

13. Aye, CDC's numbers are different than Worldometers.

I think Worldometers are confirmed cases and CDCs are just estimates based on statistics, and may or may not include a whole bunch of other variables like retransmission. I honestly don't know, I'm not a specialist. I'm going to stand by what I said earlier, that it's still a significant threat for millions:

Even if 115 mil have been introduced to Covid, that still leaves 213 mil untouched, meaning 60 mil+ unvaccinated and vulnerable. Considering we're back up to 40k new infections a day and rising, the threat is still very much a real one, IMO.

[NickB79]

28. A substantial number were infected over 6 months ago

And natural immunity wanes over time. Coupled with the new Delta variant, natural immunity is no guarantee against reinfection

[Sgent]

12. We have seen

some ability of Delta to break-through vaccinated people (although they fair MUCH better). I wonder how efficient it would be breaking through the immune response of a mild infection last fall. That's the real question IMHO, if it can't break through prior infections or vaccines, it may surge but it will probably be limited in deaths.

[Ms. Toad]

14. Does 200,000 cases a day satisfy that standard?

We're on track to reach that level around the first week of September. Cases right now are doubling rougly every 14 days. (We're up 121% over the past 14 days - so that will get us there even faster.)

Ramifications? People get sick. People get hospitalized. People get long haul COVID. People die. Hospitals will, again, run out of room. And the kids will be hit hardest since 0-12 are not likely to be able to be vaccinated until mid-winter.

You see on DU extreme resistance to return to layers of mitigation (i.e. not just vaccination, but vaccination + masking + social distancing).

With exposure at the levels we're talking about, there will be more and more vaccinated people getting sick. The number of vaccinated individuals who get sick is directly proportional to the level of exposure. And when I dive into the underlying data on death and serious illness - I don't see a distinction between vaccinated and not as to the range of severity. So more breakthrough cases = more severe cases, deeath, etc.

I'm just about as discouraged as I was at the beginning of the pandemic when I kept trying to warn about what was coming, and I kept getting shouted down. It's been happening again since the CDC guidance on masks was issued - and the creep up in cases has been happening just about as long. Except that the power of exponents means that no one thought it was an issue until it may be too late to do anything about it.

[Quixote1818]

19. That sounds about right. Very high likelihood of 100,000 a day

at the very least.

[Ms. Toad]

30. That number is a quick calculation based on the NYT data

I Ned to update my chart - I haven't been able to keep up with the data corrections that go back more than a year, in some instances. But since we're going up again, I need to bite the bullet and just do it so i have more faith in that quick prediction.

[North Shore Chicago]

26. Thank you for this analysis!

[Quixote1818]

15. Yes if many places don't put in many restrictions this time

1. This variant spreads twice as easily
2. There are almost no restrictions and they probably want things to blow throw now rather than this winter like the UK is doing.
3. I don't think restrictions will be put into place in most places until hospitals are full. People are done with them and those not getting vaccinated have made their choice.

If this all occurs, then we could be hitting 300,000 cases a day again or at least 150,000 to 200,000 and 75% of it will be in low vaccinated areas. They will be an utter bloodbath in the next couple months. If not now then this winter!

[Demovictory9]

18. I hope not. scary to think about

[Thtwudbeme]

20. Well, hell yes

it already is in some places. Right now, I am staring at photos of a large group of folks I work with who traveled to Nashville on vacation- sitting in bars with cowboy hats on and cracking jokes about "friends in low places."

Yes- things will start shutting down again by the end of August.

[LisaL]

21. Easily.

The minute our covid numbers got lower, people started to act as if pandemic was over. Pandemic-what pandemic?
Here comes delta.

[OrlandoDem2]

22. Just take a look at Florida's curve. We are seeing a spike that is going straight up

We’ve tripled in 2 weeks. Our death curve is starting to turn upward now. I imagine it’ll spike soon.

We are at about 54% vaccinated.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

[Klaralven]

24. Yes, about 30% of the vaccinated are susceptible to getting mild Covid from Delta

That's enough to keep the disease spreading and increasing, since the replication number is higher and social distancing is now ineffective.

Plus they will help spread Delta among the other 30+ % of adults that are unvaccinated, who are likely to get severe Covid disease.

Plus children under 12, who will not get very sick, but can infect family members and caregivers.

So I expect a big wave of Delta this Fall/Winter, although most vaccinated people won't get very sick.

[Tarc]

27. Well that 30% will be quite gutted if the Delta variant sweeps through it, so...

[Amishman]

32. Local hospital just reported they have zero covid patients - 1st time in 14 months

https://www.readingeagle.com/local-news/after-17-months-of-pandemic-reading-hospital-has-no-covid-patients/article_b6c4f642-e311-11eb-b259-8ba6b1ce0bb9.html

The overall area the hospital serves is fairly red, but I haven't heard much anti-vax BS around here.

I think return overall to peak pandemic conditions is not possible, however we will see some nasty localized outbreaks in low vax areas.

[Elessar Zappa]

34. I doubt it.

It’ll run wild in low vaccinated areas but overall it won’t reach pre-vaccine levels unless a mutation arrives that evades the vaccine.