Does anyone know why the UK is exploding to worst-in-the-world levels of COVID?

[NewsCenter28]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Their vaccination rate is higher than the US's, but yet cases way higher (for now). Also, is the UK explosion a warning that the world may be about to enter a 4th horrific wave, or 5th?

I'm sure good ole Boris is a large part of the reason. Another Russian stooge.

Please do explain if possible.

Contrast that to the UK's biggest Commonwealth country who had just 494 cases! Canada!

51,000+ cases on a weekend! My god!

[abqtommy]

1. The short answer is: The Brit political leaders are a bunch of Tory wankers.

The long answer starts out: 4.5 billion years ago the planet we know as Earth was formed...

[Budi]

8. Well yes. I was going to say BORIS, but it may indeed go back a billion yrs..

Here's to you BORIS anyway:

[RealityBasedNewYorkr]

2. Cases rising, hospitalizations flat

The magic of vaccines. Rampant spread of Delta, but mortality / morbidity pretty much flat

[LisaL]

14. UK's hospitalizations are also rising.

NT

[hlthe2b]

3. They have a high single dose vaccination rate (69%), but two-dose compliance 63%

so still a lot of unvaccinated, just as in the US. UK, though is NOT vaccinating anyone younger than 18 years old. None administered to 12-17 yo, unlike the US and children have emerged as a large part of this new surge.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

[Ex Lurker]

4. Several reasons

They stretched out the time between doses so fewer are fully vaccinated.

Astra Zenica has a lower efficacy rate than the Mrna vaccines

Also, while the cases are exploding, hospitalizations and deaths are not, which is very good news. The vaccines, even with lower efficacy and partial administration, are keeping people from getting very sick and dying.

[NewsCenter28]

10. Awesome to hear

About hospitalizations. Takes a great deal of my anxiety away.

[LisaL]

15. It might be awesome to hear, but it's not true.

UK's hospitalizations are going up.

[Scrivener7]

5. They've also had Delta a few weeks longer than we have.

[LisaL]

7. Yea, we are usually a month behind the UK.

NT

[LisaL]

6. Delta covid.

Same as here.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. It's the delta variant. And still spreading among the young

who are less vaccinated (the UK went very much in age order). Controls are now lax, and about to be lifted completely in England, so it'll probably get even worse.

The Guardian has a good summary page: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

Near the bottom, a "case rates by age group" shows how much the cases are in the young - about 650 per 100k in the 20-39 group, but under 100 per 100k for 60+.

At the bottom of this page there's a 'heatmap' showing how age groups have had the vaccine - the 2nd shot is the important one for the delta variant.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

50+ have all been over 80% since 30 June (and it takes about 2 weeks for the full vaccine effect). Then, 30-34 was only at 22%.

Going back to The Guardian's page, the graphs comparing the advance of the 2nd wave last autumn and this wave show the cases are increasing faster (in the same period, there are about double), but the hospitalization is about half - and deaths lower still. This again shows being fully vaccinated has helped - it was older age groups most at risk of serious disease, but the delta variant spreads fast, especially in the unvaccinated.

The government strategy is now "we got the older age groups vaccinated; we'll go for herd immunity among the young by getting them infected". They explicitly said that removing restrictions now, in summer, would mean less infection in the autumn and winter, when there would be other pressures on hospitals, and they prefer that.

[NewsCenter28]

11. Thanks a lot for the details Muriel!

Very helpful and calming to understand just exactly what is going on! Also, I'm a regular reader of your site, DL. Love love love it FYI!

[muriel_volestrangler]

22. Thanks, though I think you're crediting me with someone else's site

because I don't have a site, and don't know what 'DL' is. It's possible there's another 'Muriel Volestrangler' out there (it's a pseudonym from British comedy).

[11 Bravo]

23. Damn! For 18 years I've assumed you were a serial killer of meadow mice!

[LisaL]

12. And why wouldn't they go for vaccinating the young instead of getting them infected?

NT

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. It's a little hard to tell what's going on with vaccination rates in the young

Vaccination for 1st dose has been open to anyone over 18 since 18 June (in England; not sure on the dates the other 3 nations had, but England is over 80% of the UK population). Here's a graph I put together from the heatmap data a few days ago:



Thick lines are first doses, thin are 2nd. A further complication is which vaccination is used; the decision, when cases were lower, was to use the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, which has rare blood clotting problems more in the young (who are less at risk anyway), only for the over 40s. So all the under 40s have to come from the Pfizer or Moderna supply, and I think that's restricted. Doctors have been told not to give 2nd doses before 8 weeks after the 1st (it's thought to be best either to do it within 3, or wait for 8), but the rollout of the 1st hasn't been that quick in the young age groups, as you can see. Some doctors said they had limited supplies, but it hasn't been much talked about, so I tend to think that wasn't the main reason. It looks a bit more that many of the young (especially 25-29) thought things were going OK when they hadn't been vaccinated, and the government is opening everything up, so why bother?

(This article does seem to indicate there have been some supply restrictions for doctors giving jabs, recently: https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/gps-will-be-able-to-order-as-many-covid-jabs-as-they-need-in-booster-programme/ )

[Mr.Bill]

13. More likely to use public transportation?

[Disaffected]

17. Canada -

Commonwealth's biggest in area but not population (38 mil vs 67), however much lower population density which might explain some of the huge case load difference.

And to think certain US politicians are agitating to open the Canada/US border. When it does open however (mid-August), only the vaccinated will be allowed entry.

[Yavin4]

18. So far, the UK is actually a good news story.

Their cases are indeed peaking back to their highest levels at the beginning of the year, but their hospitalizations and deaths remain relatively flat at the moment.

This means that the vaccines are working as expected. It's keeping the hospitalizations and deaths down. Covid zero is not zero cases. Rather, it's the ratio of negative outcomes (serious illness, hospitalizations, and deaths) to positive cases. If that number is essentially zero, then that's the endgame to this pandemic.

People are over reacting to the rise in positive tests. Chris Paul tested positive three weeks ago, and now he's playing in the NBA Finals.

[Crunchy Frog]

19. I think they mostly got vaccinated with the Astra Zenica

Which is apparently not very effective against the Delta variant.

Their death numbers so far don't seem to be shooting up, so hopefully they're at least getting partial protection.

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. AstraZeneca is reasonably effective against serious disease, after 2 doses

Remembering that the total case numbers include asymptomatic cases, this is the overall effect of the vaccines the UK has used:

Analysis of routine testing data in the UK up to the 13th June suggests that a single vaccine dose is 35% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant but 80% effective against hospitalisation and for two doses that rises to 79% and 96% respectively.

In general, the pattern shows that the vaccines work less well against getting symptoms with the Delta variant compared to the Alpha but just as well at preventing a hospital admission. There has been some debate about vaccine effectiveness in immunosuppressed patients.

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/gps-and-data-indicate-continued-rise-in-double-vaccinated-covid-cases/

[Crunchy Frog]

21. That would explain why there's lots of cases but few deaths.

Hopefully that pattern will hold.

[Saffron Walden]

24. There were no travel restrictions between the UK and India

when the Delta variant was running rampent through India. The UK towns which saw the first major increases in cases were towns with high Indian populations such as Bedford and Bradford. People were going to India to see/help sick relatives and then returning to the UK.

[rockfordfile]

25. If true, wow what a bunch of idiots.