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brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 10:33 AM Jul 2021

Tell me the difference between these two lists:

List A
Marjorie Taylor-Greens
Lauren Boebert
Matt Gaetz
Louie Gohmert
Jim Jordan


List B
David Valadao
Mike Garcia
Kim Young
Ashley Arenholz
Yvette Herrell


Answer: List A is five of the most well-known, right-wing extremists in Congress. People you know and hate. You're likely to receive emails from Democratic candidates who are targeting these Republicans, and are appealing to your visceral hatred of them for support. They're ALSO in virtually safe seats (R+20 or better) and absent a criminal conviction, the chances of beating them are minimal.

List B is a group of Republicans you probably haven't heard of. Each beat a Democratic incumbent in a competitive district in 2020 (Biden won several of them)

In 2022, its essential for us to hold on to the House, and we'll have to deal with the impact of gerrymandering and voter suppression, especially in Red-leaning States. If you're going to to financially support candidates, which group of seats is more likely to be winnable?
18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

FakeNoose

(41,936 posts)
1. Dems need to concentrate on the most vulnerable, winnable seats
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 10:38 AM
Jul 2021

That's the only way we can keep the majority.

Let's go Democrats! Let's get to work!

Elessar Zappa

(16,385 posts)
3. That was the mistake
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 10:45 AM
Jul 2021

a lot of progressives made in 2020 by donating to the opponents of McConnell and Graham, races we were very unlikely to win. If more had focused on Maine and North Carolina we would be in much better shape right now. As for 2022, I’m in Yvette Herrell’s district and I plan on doing everything I can to ensure she loses.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
4. I understand that local voters fall in to a unique category...
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 10:47 AM
Jul 2021

But a lot of fundraising (certainly the requests I get) are on a national scale.

 

brush

(61,033 posts)
5. Also there was the "defund the police" stupidity. And AOC calling herself...
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 11:07 AM
Jul 2021

a socialist. We lost several House seats over those.

dsc

(53,416 posts)
7. I don't see what money would have done in Maine
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 11:55 AM
Jul 2021

as the candidate had nearly 7 figures remaining at the end. I don't know what Cunningham had left, but I doubt any amount of money would have made a difference in NC either. In NC we had a bunch of statewide races (3 supreme court justices, several appellate judges, Gov, Lt Gov, AG, Treasurer, Sec of State, Labor Commissioner, AG Commissioner, Supt of Public Instruction, Insurance Commissioner, Auditor) We won a grand total of 4, Gov 4.5, AG by 0.26, Auditor by 1.7, and Sec of State by 1.3. All 4 were incumbents, Cooper Gov, and Stein AG were running for their first reelection, while both Wood Auditor and Marshall SOS were long term incumbents. Wood has been auditor since 2009 while Marshall has been SOS since 1997. All four had strong brands going in and it should be noted only Cooper won comfortably.

The rest of the open races were lost by us by fairly close to the same amount. Open races Lt Gov 2.7, Ins 3.5, Labor 1.7, Supt 2.7. The 2 with a GOP incumbent Ag 7.7, Treasurer 5.1.

Judicial races all GOP wins Chief justice 401 votes out of 5.4 million cast, seat 2 1.4, seat 4 2.4 only the Chief Justice had an incumbent who was a Democrat. Appellate judges 5 seats margins of 3.5, 2.5, 1.9, 3.5 and 2.3.

We also had Biden and Cunningham

Biden lost by 1.3, Cunningham by 1.7. So Cunningham out performed every Dem on the ballot except the four winners and two of the 3 Supreme Court justices one of whom was an incumbent, and Biden. I highly doubt an extra million or two would have changed that outcome.

https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=0

above is link to results

The Magistrate

(96,043 posts)
6. Hear Hear, Sir
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 11:13 AM
Jul 2021

This is a triage situation. Trying to be strong everywhere can make you weak everywhere instead. Force must be concentrated, and aimed to obtainable objectives.

Response to The Magistrate (Reply #6)

Lonestarblue

(13,521 posts)
10. We need a federal law requiring all voting machines to have paper backups.
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 12:29 PM
Jul 2021

WaPo has an article today on how wrong polls were in 2016 and even more so in 2020. But what if the polls were not so wrong? In every state (Kentucky, South Carolina, Maine) where polls showed a close race between candidates, the Republican won by a large, unexpected margin. Every one of those states, along with the majority of Republican-run states, uses ES&S voting machines with no paper backups. Given Trump’s expectation that Georgia could simply change votes, I wonder whether that has happened with ES&S machines and he knew that. Of course, Georgia had Dominion machines with paper backups that showed a very close matchup of totals.

McConnell won in Kentucky counties with heavy Democratic constituents. How? Jaime Harrison was essentially tied with Graham on election day, but Graham won with a margin of more than 12%. Were the polls truly that wrong, or were Republican elections officials cheating? Given the Republican Party’s purge of people like the Georgia Secretary of State for refusing to create votes for Trump, I cannot help but suspect cheating. After all, it is Republican elections officials who certify voting machines for elections. Also, ES&S has sold some voting machines with wifi connections. These machines are not supposed to be connected to the Internet.

CrispyQ

(41,013 posts)
18. Media should have questioned the republican attack on Dominion only & not ES&S.
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 01:38 PM
Jul 2021

Electronic voting without paper ballots is just wrong. We need election standardization. My state makes it incredibly easy to register to vote & to vote with DMV registration, same-day registration, mail-in voting, early voting, ballot drop-off boxes, & our elections are secure & we have backup paper ballots with audits. It's not democratic that it's easier to vote in CO than other states. BTW, CO repubs are working to make it harder to vote in CO, but fortunately our state legislature is blue. But they will keep trying.

nevergiveup

(4,815 posts)
11. Lauren Underwood (Illinois 14)
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 12:43 PM
Jul 2021

only won by I believe 2000 votes In November. Most monies I have will be going to her as the Repubs are going to be pouring a ton of money into this district to defeat her. We must save her seat.

Ford_Prefect

(8,632 posts)
12. Unfortunately it is far more about controlling the vote and the dialogue
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 12:50 PM
Jul 2021

than about the money per se.

For what it is worth progressives have a right to representation and have a meaningful place in this party and party history right up to half an hour ago.

If Democrats do not contest seats everywhere we concede the debate if not the actual power to those who howl the loudest, and with the biggest war chest. To silence even a losing campaign is to abandon those in that district and the surrounding area.
I lived in NC when the Democratic National Committee came calling in NC to hunt up votes for several Presidents and Senators while it ignored the impact of national GOP strategy and money on local candidates. That was a bad move every single time, and the concept that we should now apply it elsewhere is stunningly naïve, not to mention cruel.

Initech

(108,943 posts)
13. Yes, Young Kim is unfortunately my district representative.
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 12:54 PM
Jul 2021

Beat Gil Cisneros and the election was mostly based on bullshit, which is 99% of the conservative argument these days.

11 Bravo

(24,323 posts)
16. Pragmatism doesn't always play well here, but this can't be repeated too often.
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 01:12 PM
Jul 2021

Let's keep an eye on what matters, and expend our time, energy, and money where they're most likely to make a difference.

Tommymac

(7,334 posts)
17. Better Yet Run For Something
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 01:16 PM
Jul 2021

STATEHOUSE FUTURES: A Progressive Policy and Strategy Summit for a New Generation of Leaders

Run for Something Action Fund and the Democracy Policy Network invite you to an afternoon summit on progressive strategy and policy on July 28th. The summit features panels on transformative policies your fellow leaders plan to push next year and workshops on approaches to help you raise up big ideas in your state. Whether you're on the campaign trail, governing from the statehouse, or advocating in your community, these ideas are for you. In just three hours, you’ll walk away connected to state leaders across the nation, informed and empowered to advocate for bold ideas that will deepen democracy in your state.

https://hopin.com/events/statehouse-futures-a-progressive-policy-and-strategy-summit-for-a-new-generation-of-leaders?link_id=0&can_id=cb8befb88beb12cc4ebeeabe98b388ec&source=email-this-summit-has-everything-progressive-policy-ideas-messaging-strategy-elected-officials-national-experts-a-cocktail-hour&email_referrer=email_1235042&email_subject=invitation-summit-on-progressive-strategy-policy-for-firstname-default-your-state-july-28th-4-7pm-et


https://runforsomethingaction.net




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