43% of new covid cases in MA are breakthrough cases

[femmedem]

Last edited Wed Jul 21, 2021, 06:48 PM - Edit history (1)

"Numbers from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health show there have been 5,166 cases of COVID-19 in fully vaccinated individuals as of July 17, a significant increase from the 4,450 reported one week earlier.

As of Tuesday, the DPH reported 1,649 new positive COVID-19 cases between July 10 and July 16.

When analyzing the number of overall COVID-19 cases reported by the DPH between July 10 and July 16, the breakthrough cases account for 43.4 percent of all new COVID-19 cases."

https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-716-breakthrough-covid-cases-vaccinated-individuals/37083279#

I'm certainly not posting this to discourage anyone from getting vaccinated. I realize that the vast majority of these breakthrough cases would be far, far more serious if the infected people weren't vaccinated. But I think we need to realize how quickly the landscape is changing--especially for those of us who have gotten lax about masks and gatherings, and who could unwittingly spread it to children or other vulnerable people.

Edited to add: 63% of MA residents are fully vaccinated as of yesterday.

[NightWatcher]

1. But what percent of the hospitalized are breakthrough?

Vaccinated people may still get this, but hopefully they will not get very sick or die from it.

[femmedem]

4. That's certainly true. My concern is people with mild or asymptomatic cases infecting children

or the elderly or immunocompromised people.

I don't have a % from the article on how many are hospitalized. Probably very, very few if any.

[SheltieLover]

6. And long haul can & does result from mild & asymptomatic cases

[femmedem]

9. I didn't know that.

[SheltieLover]

30. Pls read all of post #4 this thread

Harvard epidemiologist.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215572903

Loads of info there that news is not covering! 🤬

[femmedem]

52. Thank you. n/t

[SheltieLover]

62. Yw!

[TheRickles]

24. Do you have a link for that?

I've heard it stated, but never seen it documented. Seems unlikely, as asymptomatic people aren't coughing and sneezing, and are not good spreaders.

[meadowlander]

26. I read a theory that long-haul Covid is really a reactivation of Epstein-Barr virus by Covid

exposure.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210630/could-the-mono-virus-be-driving-long-haul-covid#1

If that's the case, it wouldn't matter how bad your Covid -19 experience was. Either Covid itself or the immune response to it could be reactivating previous viruses you've been exposed to.

[TheRickles]

29. Interesting, thanks for the link.

The study makes clear that the causal connection hasn't been established. EBV is latent in most people and can be re-activated by stress, so the studies admits it's a bit of a leap, but an interesting one, to be sure. I wish they had noted what sort of Covid symptoms these long-haul patients had initially - none, mild, moderate or severe.

[NightWatcher]

7. I have lupus so I'm concerned too

[femmedem]

11. Yeah, it's not fun knowledge to have. But it's better to know the risks and take precautions.

Which I'm sure you've been doing, it's just a reminder that we're not out of this yet.

[SheltieLover]

32. Agreed!!!

Knowledge is power! 💪

[womanofthehills]

37. From July 14 - 79 breakthrough deaths

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/07/14/covid-breakthrough-cases-deaths-massachusetts-fully-vaccinated-july-10/

[marble falls]

2. It's mutating quickly because people use conventant reasons not to get vaxxed.

[Amishman]

3. What was the hospitalization rate for the breakthroughs vs non-vaccinated?

That's the most important statistic

[femmedem]

8. No info on that in the article, but I assume few, if any. However,

this article caught my eye because I am supposed to attend a meeting next week that will likely have at least sixty attendees. Probably nearly all of them are vaccinated. (It's a Democratic party-related meeting.) I am very concerned about it, because masks aren't mandatory and I am afraid of getting an asymptomatic case and infecting Mr. femmedem's grandchild.

[SheltieLover]

33. Omg!!!

Dr. Ding has posted 1 in 12 kids gets ling haul.

Can you have meeting put up zoom for you?

[femmedem]

50. unfortunately, no. We're choosing candidates and they wanted the vote to be in person.

I emailed the chair asking for masks to be mandatory, based on an uptick in local cases and the transmissions among the vaccinated Texas Democratic legislators. (I hadn't yet seen the article about Massachusetts.) It may have had an effect because this evening I got a voicemail from a candidate who was calling all the attendees, and she said masks won't be mandatory but are requested.

I hadn't heard that figure about the long haul children. Maybe I'll get a proxy if the policy doesn't change, or else not visit anyone for ten days afterward.

[BannonsLiver]

72. Ding is a total nut job

It’s amazing anyone would take him seriously.

[BradAllison]

73. Someone should inform MSNBC

He was on there with Joy Reid around July 6th or so.

[BannonsLiver]

74. Nah, nut job alarmists bring all the viewers to the yard

[womanofthehills]

43. All I have read so far was the 79 breakthrough cases who died

Half died at home and half in the hospital..I’v seen no numbers on hospitalized.

[11cents]

5. And what percentage of MA residents are vaccinated?

If it's very high -- then of course vaccinated people will comprise a high percentage of people who test positive.

There's been a lot of RW crowing about a high percentage of vaccinated covid-positive cases in Israel -- where almost everyone is vaccinated. So of course if someone does get covid, they're highly likely to be vaccinated.

[femmedem]

16. 63% are fully vaccinated as of yesterday.

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/massachusetts

[roamer65]

17. 4,357,007 have been fully vaccinated, per your website link.

Of which 5,166 have had a case of COVID-19 so far.

I bet actual hospitalization is even lower.

Sounds like damn effective vaccines to me.

[femmedem]

18. That's a good statistic and I thank you for sharing it.

They are certainly effective vaccines. almost miraculously so. As I stated in the OP, I am not at all trying to discourage anyone from getting vaccinated.

But it does appear to be less effective against the Delta variant when including mild or asymptomatic cases. I want to know how easy it is for vaccinated people with mild cases to infect others. Based on the Texas Democratic legislators' experiences, it seems to be fairly easy.

[SheltieLover]

35. Jerusalem Times found fully vaxed Pfizer to be 64% effective against delta

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/health-officials-rule-covid-booster-recommended-for-immunocompromised-672894

Still miraculous, but potentially less effective than what I've heard elsewhere.

Israel has only Pfizer vaccines.

[womanofthehills]

39. And NYT said J&J was less effective against Delta

J.&J. Vaccine May Be Less Effective Against Delta, Study Suggests

Many who received the shot may need to consider boosters, the authors said. But federal health officials do not recommend second doses.

The coronavirus vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is much less effective against the Delta and Lambda variants than against the original virus, according to a new study posted online on Tuesday.

Although troubling, the findings result from experiments conducted with blood samples in a laboratory, and may not reflect the vaccine’s performance in the real world. But the conclusions add to evidence that the 13 million people inoculated with the J.&J. vaccine may need to receive a second dose — ideally of one of the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna, the authors said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/health/coronavirus-johnson-vaccine-delta.html

[womanofthehills]

44. Warning people who visited Provincetown to quarantine

On Tuesday, Boston took the extraordinary move of telling anyone who had been to Provincetown to quarantine and get tested. The Boston Public Health Commission said 35 Bostonians — of whom the “overwhelming majority” were fully vaccinated — came down with COVID-19 after visiting the town at the tip of Cape Cod.

State Sen. Julian Cyr, D-Truro, said the Cape has been seeing “an uptick in cases since the July Fourth holiday,” though the cases largely have only been “mild to moderate.” https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/07/20/33-sick-in-coronavirus-outbreak-at-west-yarmouth-senior-living-site-dph/

[uponit7771]

34. +1, doctors would be ecstatic if the flew vaccine gave those numbers.

[Tadpole Raisin]

21. At least in MA

They don’t blink an eye for those who choose to use a mask more than is required.

I met an older woman up from FL visiting her new grandchild and she said mask wearers are constantly harassed down there. It was a pleasure for her visiting a state where people generally were trying to do the right thing.

[LisaL]

69. No wonder Florida's cases are going through the roof.

NT

[wiggs]

10. hard to evaluate what that means because with vaccinated persons symptoms are more

likely to be mild or non-existent....and may go untested and unsequenced. I guess it depends on what is meant by 'breakthrough'. If it only refers to people with symptoms who are tested then that's clear and the numbers mean something. If 'breakthrough' means anyone infected with the virus who carries it asymptomatically and who is not tested and sequenced then those numbers will likely be low.

As others have said, I bet the rate of serious symptoms or hospitalizations is much much lower for the vaccinated.

[femmedem]

13. One way to evaluate it is that 14% of all their reported breakthrough cases were last week. n/t

[OilemFirchen]

19. Huh?

If someone is "infected with the virus who carries it asymptomatically and who is not tested and sequenced", how would anyone know?

[Treefrog]

23. My question too.

[wiggs]

70. exactly my point. breakthroughs are probably under reported. nt

[haele]

12. Two points of data not provided that change the tone of the article...

1. Bounds of the breakthrough cases - does this mean positive test results in general or only in cases seen at hospitals, ERs and clinics?
2. What is the percentage of breakthrough cases requiring hospitalization vice sending back home for quarantine with meds and prescribed rest and monitoring?

I suspect if counting only hospitalization, breakthrough case counting significantly drops.

Haele

[femmedem]

14. Those are indeed missing.

Like you, I believe that this is not counting only hospitalizations. But vaccinated, covid+ people can unwittingly spread it to children and other unvaccinated people even if their own cases are extremely mild.

[totodeinhere]

22. Dr. Fauci said yesterday before Congress that about 5% of hospitalizations are from vaccinated

people. That's pretty good.

[uponit7771]

36. +1, that's tracking along with what's expected. Still wouldn't want this but its good to know that

... my chances of getting put in a hospital are low.

[totodeinhere]

41. Those are better stats than the flu shot has. n/t

[OnDoutside]

15. It would be interesting to know the vaccines that they received...

[Tadpole Raisin]

20. If breakthrough cases are increasing

1. I’d like to know more about percentage of totals except some of those mild cases may never be tested.
2. How much can those breakthroughs transmit?
3. Is this going to mean more national ‘strong recommendation’ for masking? I’m sure a shut down would be avoided at all costs.
4. Delta appears quite squirrelly. Lambda up next? And does this mean we are switching from pandemic to endemic stage? Good grief!
5. Time to get N95 or KN95 masks? I’ve been hearing more chatter about that due to how easy Delta infects people.

Not sure I trust how good some KN95 masks are. For future planning - just in case - anyone have recommendations?

[lame54]

57. 6. Which vaccine or is it all of them?

[Tadpole Raisin]

65. I think all

but I heard J&J had some data (not confirmed yet) that said efficacy against Delta was in the upper 60s. I think Moderna and Pfizer are in the 90s. Some people question if J&J should get a booster.

Problem is all of this data is preliminary. They need to get more and don’t want to create a panic. They are right, we have to wait. That’s why (for me) I’m wondering if this darn virus is going beyond pandemic to endemic and also whether n95 masks will be better to use in groups. I’m not making any changes yet but watching, like all of us.

[gulliver]

25. This "breakthrough cases" category is gonna be misleading to people

People don't hear, "mild breakthrough cases," which these undoubtedly are. They hear, "vaccinated people who got the disease anyway." It's bad communication. Like "no widespread voter fraud."

[TheRickles]

51. Also misleading is defining a "case" as a positive PCR test,

regardless of whether the person has any symptoms. In common usage, you have to have signs and symptoms before you're considered a patient or a case - it takes more than just an abnormal lab test (and especially not one with a high false positive rate like PCR).

[femmedem]

59. My take is that they are still cases because they are transmissable to others.

I'm more afraid of getting an asymptomatic case than a mildly symptomatic case because I don't want to unknowingly pass it to Mr. Femmedem's grandson.

[TheRickles]

66. At least one very large study showed that asymptomatic people are not spreaders.

And it's in a top-flight journal - Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w?fbclid=IwAR1TW1gnm-vSr9VpF_TlJmM494bor9QITAJcC9xDKAK7IjxgrRD-e5RBfQc

[femmedem]

68. But that study was before the delta variant existed.

I hope it remains true that asymptomatic people are not spreaders but I don't think we have information yet on the delta variant to be sure.

But it's good information. Thanks.

[triron]

63. Good point.

[AlexSFCA]

27. Some crazy numbers compared to what CDC has been feeding

the issue is not that fully vaccinated people may have serious symptoms but that they can easily pass the delta variant, which has over 1200x viral load vs. original strain, to those under 12, not eligible for vaccines. Delta can be contracted in just a few minutes from longer distances.

[femmedem]

53. Exactly. The CDC has only been reporting breakthrough hospitalizations abnd deaths.

And so I was completely unaware that a relatively high percentage of milder cases might be people who are fully vaccinated--and hencre I was unaware of just how careful I need to be when I'm around children.

[TheRickles]

28. What does "a breakthrough case" actually mean?

If it's simply that someone tested positive on PCR but doesn't have any symptoms, that's much less significant than if the person tested positive and had symptoms (mild, moderate or severe). Asymptomatic people are very ineffective spreaders.

The PCR test is extremely sensitive and will even detect partial fragments of the virus in your system. So even if there is no intact, viable virus in your system, it is possible to test positive - residual viral fragments from prior infections, even prior versions of Covid (similar enough to Covid 19 to show up as positive), will trigger a positive test result. Unfortunately, the PCR test generates many false positives, in other words.

[Crunchy Frog]

47. Most people aren't getting tested if they don't have symptoms.

Especially if they've been fully vaccinated. Why would they?

[TheRickles]

49. Makes sense, but I'd like to see some documentation of it.

Most of the people I know who've been tested got it to ensure they could travel or go to events, or as an informal requirement for family gatherings. So you might be right, but you might not be - as is the case with just about everything in life!

[Quixote1818]

31. That's because MA has most people vaccinated. MA has the 2nd highest vaccination rate at 72%

If a state had 100% of the population vaccinated then 100% of cases would be breakthrough cases.

[ProfessorGAC]

40. Beat Me To It!

It's a very squishy statistic.

[femmedem]

45. They are doing great with their vaccine rate. 72% have had one vaccine.

63% fully vaccinated. Certainly a higher percentage of unvaccinated than vaccinated are getting covid, but if 63% of the population is fully vaxxed and 43% of the new cases are breakthroughs, that is startling to me.

But even if it is a full 72% vaccinated and 28% unvaccinated, I would have expected more than 57% of the new cases to be among the unvaccinated.

[Voltaire2]

71. but it is so much more scary to frame it as in the op.

[UTUSN]

38. K&R

[Crunchy Frog]

42. It doesn't surprise me. My mother just spoke with an old friend.

She and her husband and her elderly mother all got it, and were all fully vaxxed. The mother got extremely sick, and was hospitalized, I believe in the ICU, though she fortunately survived.

All the real world evidence that I've seen suggests that Delta is highly transmissable, even to vaccinated people.

Everyone can do what they want, but I personally feel like not masking, at this point, is insane.

[femmedem]

46. Thank you for sharing this story.

I'm glad everyone survived.

[Gilbert Moore]

48. Chill: One in 865 vaccinated

MA has 7.1million people.

63% are vaccinated which is 4, 473,000 folx.

5166 were fully vaccinated AND caught Covid.

That is one in 865 of the fully vaccinated.

We don't know the extent they were / are affected. Non symptomatic? Hospitalized ?


From article:
"We also know that people who have the Delta variant actually have 1,000 times the amount of virus in their nose, in their bodies," Dr. Katherine Gergen Barnett with Boston Medical Center said.

Massachusetts hospitals have seen increasing hospitalizations over the past 10 days, but the 7-day average of hospitalizations is only up approximately 20 patients versus the low hit on July 9.

[femmedem]

55. Correct. But you also have to consider that the Delta variant has only begun to take off.

And, too, I would think that not many fully vaccinated people are going to get tested unless they are symptomatic or are aware of having had contact with someone who is contagious.

[ecstatic]

54. Any statisticians here?

It seems like the effectiveness of the vaccines in general and against the Delta variant is a lot lower than the 95% / 80% that's been advertised for pfizer and moderna. Just looking at the Texas representatives who all caught it. I know a small sample size can throw the numbers off, but still...

[femmedem]

58. I'm not a statistician at all, but I believe that figure is still accurate for severe cases.

And 95% effective at preventing hospitalizations or death is fantastic. But yes, the Texas representatives are a small sample but alarming, nonetheless.

[triron]

64. All you know is that they tested positive.

[Wounded Bear]

56. Proof we need to keep wearing masks...

vaxxed or not, cover your face.

I am, and I was Modernized in Mar/Apr. Still wear a mask indoors around strangers and in public.

[femmedem]

60. Me too. n/t

[JI7]

61. What are the Hospitalization and death rates compared to those without vaccines

I never thought the vaccines would prevent infection 100 percent . I don't know any professional that said that.

[TheRickles]

67. That's the key question, but it gets obscured by the focus on "cases", which has come to mean

a positive PCR test, regardless of symptom status.