Study: Pfizer vaccine 88 percent effective against delta variant

[Quixote1818]

Peter Sullivan - 1h ago The Hill

Two doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine are 88 percent effective against the delta variant, according to a new study.

The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday from researchers at Public Health England, offers reassurance about the effectiveness of the vaccines against the delta variant.

The 88 percent effectiveness against the delta variant was only modestly lower than the 93.7 percent effectiveness against the alpha variant, which was first identified in the United Kingdom.

The findings reinforce earlier data from Public Health England in May finding 88 percent effectiveness against delta.

They are in contrast to an Israeli study earlier this month that provoked some concern when it found the Pfizer vaccine was just 64 percent effective against the delta variant, but that study's methods drew skepticism from some experts.

More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/study-pfizer-vaccine-88-percent-effective-against-delta-variant/ar-AAMro79?ocid=winp1taskbar

[BannonsLiver]

1. It's interesting

Apparently the Israeli study, which has been actively promoted by some here, has apparently come under criticism. Funny how that’s never been mentioned by those who have actively pushed the study.

I can’t imagine why.

[FreeState]

2. By comparison condoms are 82% effective with typical use

The male condom is 98 percent effective with perfect use. With typical use, it’s only 82 percent effective.

https://www.healthline.com/health/healthy-sex/how-effective-is-birth-control#patch

[LisaL]

3. No wonder we have a lot of STDs in this country.

NT

[Hugin]

7. My mind cringes at the idea of atypical condom use.

Wait! I'm supposed to put it where and only use it ONCE? Jeeze.

How do they expect me to remember all of that.

[LisaL]

4. Looks like the study was done when alpha variant was still widely circulating.

So don't diss the Israeli study.
I bet if the study was repeated now, the answer might be much more similar to Israel.

[Quixote1818]

9. The Israeli study is taking a lot of criticism. See link

Snip:

Dr. Dvir Aran, an expert in health statistics from the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, said he is concerned the Health Ministry is using “bad research” and allowing it to be presented without context.

“The problems aren’t with the vaccine, they are with the data,” he said, branding as “false” the conclusions in the latest data and other research on how well the vaccine prevents infection.

The research process “skews the results to make the vaccine seem less effective than it is,” he told The Times of Israel.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-claims-major-drop-in-vaccine-protection-experts-dont-believe-it/

[LisaL]

27. Yet I am not sure

what are the supposed problems with the data from these quotes?

[LisaL]

6. That study was done when alpha was still a dominant variant.

That's no longer the case.

[Tomconroy]

8. Why does that invalidate the study's conclusions?

[LisaL]

11. We've seen a lot more break through cases lately as far as I can tell, now that delta is the

dominant variant.

[Tomconroy]

15. There are no studies yet that link an increase

In breakthrough cases to the delta variant. The number of breakthrough cases has increased a bit because the number of people vaccinated has increased.




https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/21/1018872469/worried-about-breakthrough-covid-cases-heres-what-to-know

[LisaL]

17. The study we are discussing

indicates that Pfizer was less effective against delta.
So this particular study links break through cases to delta variant.

[Tomconroy]

18. I did not see that conclusion in the article.

[LisaL]

20. Less effective means more break through cases.

NT

[Tomconroy]

23. You are saying something that was not in the article

The conclusion of the article was that the double dose of the vaccine is highly effective against the Delta variant. It said nothing about breakthrough infections.

[LisaL]

24. It's in the article.

Pfizer was less effective against delta than alpha (even if reduction was modest). Less effective equals more break through cases.

"With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant."

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891?query=featured_home

[Tomconroy]

40. Do you acknowledge the possibility that the numbers

Could ditffer a bit if the study was to be repeated?
I suspect that is why the study only concluded that the vaccine is highly effective.
Aren't what they really doing is taking a poll? And scientific polls have margins of error.
All those exact percentages do sound very sciencey though.

[LisaL]

42. 88% that they got against delta is still highly effective.

But it is less effective than 93.7 % they got against alpha.
It's a simple enough concept.
If a lot of infections are happening (which they are) this small difference will result in a lot of break through cases.

[Tomconroy]

43. I'm saying the numbers from a small sample

Will approximate but not exactly reflect reality. Arguing that exact percentage is more psuedo science than science.
Polls of a 1000 people or so usually have a plus or minus rate of 4% or so. The effectiveness rate against either variant is essentially the same.

[womanofthehills]

21. Real life - Mass has over 5000 breakthroughs- 80 deaths

329 hospitalizations for breakthroughs


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/massachusetts-has-now-reported-more-than--breakthrough-covid-infections--deaths/ar-AAMoLQx

[LisaL]

22. Delta is dominant now.

NT

[Voltaire2]

30. 0.1% - from your link.

"Only 0.1% of the more than 4.3 million fully vaccinated population has tested positive, and an overwhelming majority of those have not had to be hospitalized"

[LisaL]

38. What was the percentage of testing positive in the un-vaccinated population during that same time

period?
Why is the article not providing the necessary information to make a comparison?

[Quixote1818]

19. 162 million people have been vaccinated. 10% of 162 million means 16 million people

can have breakthrough infections. That is a crap load of people who can still get it even if Pfizer is 88% effective. But 145 million won't.

Yes there are a lot more breakthroughs with delta but only because it spreads twice as easily around the idiots who are not vaccinated and it has gone from 10,000 cases a day a few weeks ago to over 50,000 a day now. With 40,000 more cases a day you are automatically going to get a lot more breakthrough cases. The important number is what % of those extra cases are vaccinated people? I haven't seen anything to indicate the %'s of vaccinated getting covid have gone up.

[Tomconroy]

25. There are more breakthroughs because

There are more people vaccinated. The number of breakthroughs is not ten percent of those vaccinated.

[Ms. Toad]

29. Vaccine effectiveness compares vaccinated cases to unvaccinated cases.

So 12% less effective means that for every 100 cases in an unvaccinated population we can expect to see 12 cases in a vaccinated population wtih similar exposure.

(This is the opposite calculation error of what many are making with the LA data - in which a snapsnot in time is being used to assert that the chance of death is only .0027%.)

So while it is true that there are more breakthrough cases because there are more vaccinated individuals, the calcultaion is a bit more complicated to determine if the increased vaccination accounts for all of the increased breakthrough cases.

[Tomconroy]

32. I would agree with that. I assume that there

Will be a study that addresses the issue.

[Ms. Toad]

34. You can get a rough estimate

by diving the data and running the numbers. Vaccination data (generically) is available. I haven't serched for it - but I suspect the vaccine proportionality data is available, as well.

[Voltaire2]

33. Yes over time it *might* get to 12%.

However the current data indicates a real breakthrough rate of far less than 1%. And over time more effective versions of the vaccines will become available as booster shots if the risk justifies it.

[LisaL]

39. What is the current data indicating this?

NT

[Ms. Toad]

41. That's apples to oranges, though.

effectiveness compares vaccinated to unvaccinated.

Breakthrough rate (assuming you mean % of vaccinated who later have COVID) compares cases to # vaccinated. That is only a meaningful statistic if you also calculate % of the unvaccinted population who get sick over the same time frame in the same circumstances - and compare the two.

Contracting COVID does not have an endpoint in time - we will only know if you are a breakthrough case when the pandemc is over and you haven't contracted COVID, because the number of cases will grow over time as more and more are exposed. That is the problem wtih citing the .0027% number from LA as indicative of the risk - the rest of the vaccinated people (or at least some portion of them) will conract COVID, and (if the case fatality rate holds) about 2% of them will die. That number, while emotionally attractive, is tied to a very specific region, with very specific mitigations in effect, with a relatively short (and variable) exposure period.

[Quixote1818]

31. Agree. nt

[LisaL]

26. The article we are discussing showed, albeit small, decrease in

how effective Pfizer is in delta compared to alpha.
Less effective equals more break through cases.

[BannonsLiver]

13. It doesn't

What would be great is to get the authors of these studies together with those here who believe the authors don’t know what they’re taking about and then see what happens. I have a feeling it would be pretty entertaining.

[LisaL]

14. Did you actually read the manuscript, considering you claim to understand it?

NT

[Tomconroy]

16. I read the article. I understood some things.

Other things I did not.

[BannonsLiver]

28. I can do better than that.

I can read the pattern. Bad news is promoted endlessly and accepted as fact without question. Things that could be construed as even remotely positive are discredited and attacked. Same as it ever was.

[LisaL]

36. Reality is that cases are going up in every state.

Covid is nowhere near done with us.

[BannonsLiver]

44. Oh, I'm well aware

I just left a Petsmart wearing an N95 mask. My issue isn’t with the Delta variant or the threat it poses, or masks. I think that has been made abundantly clear by now.

[BannonsLiver]

12. See post 5

[bluewater]

45. Post #5 was self-deleted by you.

[triron]

35. Well The New England Journal of Medicine is very reputable. I'll buy it.

Probably also peer reviewed.

[MineralMan]

37. My wife got Pfizer. I got Moderna.

Luck of the draw, when vaccines were available to each of us. 88% effectiveness is WAY better than the flu shot is, and I take that every year like clockwork. Anything that gives me an edge is a good thing, it seems to me.