Through vaccination or infection, doctors predict Florida will hit herd immunity to COVID-19

[IronLionZion]

https://www.fox13news.com/news/through-vaccination-or-infection-doctors-predict-florida-will-hit-herd-immunity-to-covid-19

TAMPA, Fla. - The coronavirus is sweeping through unvaccinated populations across the globe, and especially in Florida.

Bay Area experts believe this will be the final wave of the pandemic because, after this spike, we should hit herd immunity because the majority of people will have either been vaccinated – or infected.

Modeling done by University of South Florida researchers shows our region could be headed for a record-breaking spike in COVID-19 cases, with a peak likely in mid-September.

"The numbers that I'm seeing in terms of daily infection rates are doubling every seven days. And that's the fastest that I've seen since I started doing the calculations back in July of last year," explained Dr. Thomas Unnasch, USF College of Public Health Distinguished Professor.

It’s the same story at the state level. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, coronavirus cases topped 19,000 in early January.

"Florida today reported 13,000 cases a day. So we're getting pretty close to the peak that we saw back in January in terms of daily case numbers," said Unnasch.

That will likely continue to climb over the next four to six weeks, with unvaccinated people accounting for most of the infections.

Through the easy way or the hard way, Florida is on track to achieve herd immunity. May the odds be ever in your favor.

[PSPS]

1. Um, isn't that true ... for everything?

[IronLionZion]

4. Florida looks like they're trying to be first in the nation at this. nt

[bullwinkle428]

2. So does this now mean that Florida is officially "America's petri dish"?

No offense intended toward Florida DUers - I'm just sorry you have to deal with so many assholes.

Not that I can't relate - I live in Iowa.

[gab13by13]

3. Not if the virus mutates again.

I believe this thread is dangerous. The more infections the more chances for the virus to mutate.

[IronLionZion]

8. I believe Republicans are dangerous

they're trying for this. They've been wanting it since the beginning.

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

30. Shouldn't be too long until...

we're hearing about he Florida variant.

[Buckeyeblue]

32. Agreed. I thought that the idea of being immune after getting covid has been proven false

Based on the number of multiple infections and the ever mutating virus. Not to mention the long term impacts many see with covid. Who knows what long term impacts these variants will bring.

[Ms. Toad]

5. Except that there is a fair amount of breakthrough Delta -

which sort of kills the theory that everyone who has had it (or has been vaccinated) can be counted in the 90%.

[IronLionZion]

12. It's spreading so fast there

that everyone will have been infected, vaccinated, or both, or worse. South Florida was a major hotspot last year. North Florida is getting it now. And many of their elderly lined up to be vaccinated early this year.

[Ms. Toad]

18. The problem with achieving herd immunity based on people who really aren't immune is the problem.

So let's say 50% of the population is vaccinated, but 12% are subject to breakthrough cases (based on 88% effectiveness of Pfizer - which may only be 39%, if you believe he Israel data, and ignoring those vaccinated with J&J which are only about 75% effective)

That means the immunity contrtibuted by the 50% vaccinated is really only 44% immune.

Assuming an R0 of 8, you have to get to 87.5 immune to reach herd immunity. That means you need 43.5% from the unvaccinated population to be immune by having the disease. There's also a breakthrough for that immunity - people are having COVID multiple tmes. I haven't seen any stats. But assuming it is roughly the same as the Pfizer vaccine - that means you need all but .5% either vaccinated or having had covid (rather than 90%).

And - that didn't count the lower effectiveness of J&J, or the possibility that having had COVID will also have a lower effectiveness than Pfizer

It will be tough to get to herd immunity - even as fast as the Delta cases are growing, since it requires near 100% of the unvaccinated having had COVID once you take into account that people can contract COVID multiple times.

[DenaliDemocrat]

33. Suggest you look at the meta data for J&J

J&J is 72% effective - at 2 weeks. At day 56, it is about 95% effective. They use 2 weeks since J&J claimed “fully vaccinated” at 2 weeks.

Furthermore, with an R-naught of 8, if you aren’t vaccinated, you ARE going to catch this.

[chowder66]

6. I'm sure those damaged or dead will welcome the good news. nt

[Cracklin Charlie]

7. Will probably happen in Missouri, too.

People out raw dogging air like there’s no tomorrow.

Plus, I think we were always underreported.

[IronLionZion]

9. "like there's no tomorrow"

[Texaswitchy]

10. Will there be a tomorrow.

Good question.

[3Hotdogs]

22. There will be a tomorrow but not all of 'em will be in it. It's like Save the Earth from warming.

100, 200, 500 years from now, Earth will be fine. It will be different with landscape changes caused by floods or earthquakes or landslides or fires. But through all of that, Earth will be here, contentedly spinning in its orbit.

Now about humans.... well that may be a different story.

[IronLionZion]

36. Many conservatives want to live well and take their chances

and are totally fine with sacrificing others along the way.

[Treefrog]

19. Ok, I have to admit I have no idea what "raw dogging air" means!

[IronLionZion]

20. Breathing without a mask is like sex without a condom

It feels so good until you catch some unwanted consequences

[Cracklin Charlie]

21. No masks.

I saw someone else say it. I thought it was funny.

[SergeStorms]

11. Herd immunity to....

that variant. And when the next variant comes along with different characteristics the body doesn't understand? What then? Maybe everyone won't get sick, but I'll wager many will.

I think "herd immunity" with an ever evolving virus is the height of folly.

Perhaps that's why we haven't come up with a vaccine for the "common" cold, which probably won't kill you, but it definitely costs billions upon billions in productivity each year.

[Texaswitchy]

14. I am not looking forward to fall or winter.

We need booster shots.

President Hillary Clinton and we would not be in this mess

[Maru Kitteh]

23. "President Hillary Clinton and we would not be in this mess"

I'm still pretty livid about that one too.

[Alice Kramden]

26. I'm still mad about what should have been President Gore

Probably you are, too

[Texaswitchy]

31. Tht to.

Second term for Jimmy Carter.

[Alice Kramden]

40. Agree

blatantly cheating for ~ 50 years. What they learned from Watergate was how to get away with it. (No consequences.)

[IronLionZion]

15. There is data that vaccinated people are getting milder cases

and surviving. So immunity from the original strain has some protection from hospitalization or death with the newer variants. People will still get sick, but it's less severe.

Eventually COVID will be like the common cold. It's already taken on some cold-like symptoms: headache, runny nose, sore throat.

[madville]

25. I personally doubt any lasting form of herd immunity is achievable

It’s likely gonna be around for a long time, too many things are working against lasting herd immunity like waning vaccine efficacy, variants, vaccine hesitancy, etc.

[Blue_true]

43. A million years ago, what we now call the common cold likely did

cause widespread death.

SARS-COV-2 will likely become endemic in our species one day a long way into the future. The question is how many people will die for that natural process to play out in 10,000+ years?

[Pinback]

13. Infection does NOT provide as much protection as vaccination.

Per NIH, June 22, 2021:

A key issue as we move closer to ending the pandemic is determining more precisely how long people exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 virus, will make neutralizing antibodies against this dangerous coronavirus. Finding the answer is also potentially complicated with new SARS-CoV-2 “variants of concern” appearing around the world that could find ways to evade acquired immunity, increasing the chances of new outbreaks. Now, a new NIH-supported study shows that the answer to this question will vary based on how an individual’s antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were generated: over the course of a naturally acquired infection or from a COVID-19 vaccine. The new evidence shows that protective antibodies generated in response to an mRNA vaccine will target a broader range of SARS-CoV-2 variants carrying “single letter” changes in a key portion of their spike protein compared to antibodies acquired from an infection.

- How Immunity Generated from COVID-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

[IronLionZion]

16. You try explaining that to conservatives

Most liberals are getting protection from vaccinations. Conservatives are doing it the hard way.

[Maru Kitteh]

24. Thanks for that link! nt

[cadoman]

28. honestly that's misrepresenting what those papers state

The vaccine induced antibody response is more effective within the RBD but natural immunity works more broadly on other parts of the spike protein.

It's not a case of one or the other being better (necessarily). If a variation of the virus happens to operate more through the RBD, then vaccine induced antibodies would likely work better.

But if the variation of the virus didn't operate as much through RBD, it's likely natural immunity would work better.

Here are the underlying papers. Note the verbiage very carefully as it's very subtle. Compare what you bolded, which specifically mentions the RBD part of the spike protein.

"Greaney et al. demonstrated that neutralizing antibodies elicited by immunization with the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine were more focused to the RBD than those elicited by natural infection. However, vaccination-elicited antibodies targeted a broader range of epitopes within the RBD than infection-elicited antibodies. "

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/600/eabi9915

Do you see the difference? It's confusing but a truthful argument can be made for either natural immunity or vaccine immunity being more effective--depending on how the spike protein mutates!

From the same blogger you linked to, here is another article describing how natural immunity targets two other parts of the spike protein called the N-terminal domain (NTD) and the S2 subunit.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/05/18/human-antibodies-target-many-parts-of-coronavirus-spike-protein/

[Pinback]

39. So, bottom line from a public health perspective is still 1) "Get vaccinated." AND

2) "Don't abandon protective measures such as masking and social distancing, even if you are vaccinated."

Thanks for the information. I'm not up on the status of booster vaccine development, but presumably there is at least an awareness that going beyond Receptor Binding Domain protection would be desirable.

The second link in your post, from "the same blogger" (i.e., the Director of the NIH! ) has a useful analogy:

The researchers liken the spike protein to an umbrella, with the RBD at the tip of the “canopy.” While some antibodies do bind RBD at the tip, many others apparently target the protein’s canopy, known as the N-terminal domain (NTD).

As a layperson, I appreciate this kind of translation into easily digestible examples (as long as the simplification is accurate).

Of course, there's also the issue of possible long-haul symptoms from a COVID infection, which are not produced by vaccination. So, even though outcomes of either scenario are difficult to predict, relying on natural immunity alone seems to be much more problematic than getting vaccinated.

[cadoman]

41. no problem, I really appreciated that you referenced the papers!

I think the NIH director was fair in his assessment (duh) but sometimes reporters don't do as great a job summarizing things or have a predetermined point in mind. Scientists have dealt with this madness for as long as they've lacked reliable public funding.

I suspect the booster shots will be updated to match the latest mutations, with a bit of predictive modeling thrown in--similar to what is done for flu vaccines. These types of viruses mutate faster than the product can be rolled out to match it.

Boosters do look like an inevitability at this point though--keep in mind that all these first batches of vaccines were designed around the original COVID spike protein from the very outset of the outbreak. The scientific achievement made with these vaccinations is monumental but they're a whole different ballgame from the old "attenuated virus" style vaccines.

[dweller]

17. Whistling through the graveyard

and not past it …

✌🏻

[Generic Other]

29. They don't seem to factor in this issue, do they?

Will they simply bury the dead in unmarked graves?

[BadgerMom]

27. This is from Fox in Florida.

The Bay Area experts—Tampa Bay? The University of South Florida—infectious disease experts teaching and researching in a school of public health? I’m not questioning whether it’s possible that Tampa Bay and the University of South Florida have recognized experts. I’m questioning Fox News and Florida researchers saying the state will reach herd immunity. Maybe they will. I’m a skeptic, though, until I hear from more widely recognized institutions and names.

[obamanut2012]

34. Fox news stations aren't Fox

And, USF has world renowned scientists and STEM labs and researchers. They ARE "widely recognized institutions."

Some folks on this board and regional chauvinism...

[LiberalFighter]

35. Or dead

[Act_of_Reparation]

37. People who have been infected but not vaccinated cannot be considered "immune"

Infection doesn't offer the same protections vaccination does.

[IronLionZion]

38. Conservatives don't care about that,

they are choosing the hard way

[joetheman]

42. After most of the herd is dead! nt

[Blue_true]

44. That is what has happened in history.

Plagues wiped out a good portion of the then population, as did the 1918 Virus. The only way that a virus or plague will wipe us out is if it affects young and older and damages the reproductive organs to the extent that they cease to be capable of reproduction.

[Initech]

45. Sure this wasn't The Onion?