Joe Biden will be

[Boydog]

the Democratic presidential candidate in 24. He seems to like the presidency, it suits him, he is doing a great job and people appreciate him.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

1. I doubt this very, very much.

[Boydog]

2. Why? He can pretty much run his re-election campaign from the WH

[WhiskeyGrinder]

8. Because of the way he's aged between his time as VP and now.

[Bucky]

9. A lot of people were thinking this in 24. But can he walk away from the job?

I mean, at what point late next year or early 2023 does he get up and announce "I am a lame duck"? I mean, half the power of the presidency comes from knowing that you're gonna stick around and there's consequences for messing with you.

Doesn't make much sense giving up that power barely halfway through the job.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

12. I remember hearing a lot of talk during the primaries that if Biden got the nod and then won,

his choice of VP would be a bargain with anyone in the party who would like a change in how we support our base and who see how the demographics of all parties are changing, as the VP would be the shoe-in after four years because obviously Biden would be too old. I realize the party is not a monolith and the conversations I observed were only a small part of a larger picture.

I mean, at what point late next year or early 2023 does he get up and announce "I am a lame duck"?

For people his age, honestly, it's something that could happen any day.

I mean, half the power of the presidency comes from knowing that you're gonna stick around and there's consequences for messing with you.

If I had ever seen Democrats provide "consequences" that were effective, I would find this convincing.

[Bucky]

17. "a lot of talk" means speculative chatter, of course.

I know I've been around long enough to see common assumptions turn out to be wrong, particularly when they're sourced from people commenting from outside the power structure.

I mean, Joe's an ambitious a guy. He's always gonna have initiatives he wants to push through Congress against 49.9% Republican obstruction. That means he needs to have persuasive power and maintain a credible threat to sustain party unity.

Plus there's not a lot of quit in that man. A 78 year old man doesn't run for president if he's inclined to see himself as old.

Given the political pressure he's under, I'm just saying there's a LOT more reasons--psychologically, politically, and pragmatically--for him to stay on than for him to acknowledge his supposed "frailty."

[WhiskeyGrinder]

20. Yeah, these conversations were higher than rank and file, with some inside the power structure, but

not in the room where the power structure was having its discussions on its own.

It's not clear to me what an eight-year strategy for pushing through initiatives and persuading Republicans gets done versus a four-year strategy. Republicans made it clear under Obama that they were willing to deflect and delay for eight years just as much as four, and then lay waste when they had the power.

[PatSeg]

24. I agree

If Biden can remain healthy, he will run for reelection. I believe he thinks he was born to do this job and so far, that appears to be true. I cannot imagine him running for President with the idea it would only be one term. He has a lot he wants to accomplish and that will take more than one term.

[Boydog]

5. Who did you vote for in the primaries

[WhiskeyGrinder]

10. Not sure how this matters. I actually had to go look it up because I couldn't remember.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. It's either Biden or a Republican who'll win in 2024.

It's pretty much that simple. If Biden doesn't run, we lose.

[Bucky]

11. We've won elections with non-Bidens in the past

But yes, there's a lot at risk allowing a one and done presidency

[WhiskeyGrinder]

13. Not a fan of a party strategy that relies on one person.

That person then believes they can't move on.

[Bucky]

32. Never trust "I Alone Can Fix It"

amen

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Your reply to mine is the reality, tho.

You said it's a big risk for a one and done presidency. This isn't to suggest Biden alone can fix it but to play to the realities:

The EC favors the GOP no matter how well Democrats do nationally. Because of this, it's very very likely 2024 will again be a close election. Biden, as the incumbent, is best positioned to win due to that incumbency, since there is a huge advantage to being an incumbent.

Biden is also a well liked guy who seems to be able to build the type of coalition of voters Democrats will need to keep the White House, specifically suburban and urban - but more importantly, Biden made up ground with white men, doing better than Hillary in 2016.

As an incumbent, I also think he'll be less prone to being defined as a socialist, which hurt him in 2020 with pockets of the Hispanic community. I say this because many of those Hispanics who voted Trump will have experienced Biden's presidency and probably will feel more comfortable at the thought of a second term than they would with a more unknown Democrat, even if that Democrat is Harris.

Biden is best positioned because he's an incumbent ans history tells us Democrats don't have a great track record of holding the White House with a non-incumbent presidential candidate.

[Drunken Irishman]

35. Incumbents have a major advantage in elections.

With how much the EC favors the GOP, it's perfectly fine to believe Biden, as a sitting president, would have the best chance of winning.

After all, the last time the Democrats held the White House with a non-incumbent running was...James Buchanan, who defeated Pierce in the 1856 Democratic Primary.

[Boydog]

33. You are exactly 100% correct.

Great post

[LakeArenal]

14. I thought we were past this ageist stuff.

Yesterday we were celebrating Fauci and Pelosi being 80.

I think you’ve been against Biden since day one suggesting a lame duck presidency.

We who wanted Biden from the beginning did not vote for that.

[Demsrule86]

21. I dont. An incumbent had an advantage so we eould be nuts to run anyone else.

[Celerity]

3. agree nt

[Boydog]

4. If he doesn't run there will be about twenty candidates again

[LakeArenal]

15. Man o man but they sure would be exceptional candidates

[Demsrule86]

22. I would hope not becauxe we would lose.

[Celerity]

30. It will be Harris who likely wins the nom if Biden doesn't run, anyone who challenges her will get

scorched from a thousand different angles. The KHive crew and other parts of the Dem political ecosphere invested heavily in her candidacy at that point will not play play nice. It will get real nasty, real quick if someone starts to look to a true threat to take the nomination from her.

Just my prediction.

Also, if/when she is the Dem nominee, the Rethugs will run a straight up neo Nazi lite race baiting campaign. Dog help the US if it is Trump himself. White power, bark at the moon level-up cray cray.

[SheilaAnn]

7. I'm thinking DeSantis will be the repub nominee...n/t

[lagomorph777]

16. Savior vs DeSatan...

That would be a pretty interesting race.

[SheilaAnn]

18. Oh, it definitely would be..LOL. n/t

[IronLionZion]

29. DeathSentence is killing his own voters

so Florida might be a blue state by then

[MoonRiver]

19. I'm not sure about this, but I am sure that if he doesn't, Kamala will be our nominee.

And I don't know how that will work out. Racism and sexism will dominate the Repuke talking points. Gotta get our counter points down flat and start early repeating them.

[Demsrule86]

23. And then the question is this...can a woman win the presidency in this day and age. Can

she win the rustbelt which we must have. I dont know the answer to that.

[murielm99]

25. I get tired of being called the rust belt.

Call us the corn belt. Or find some other positive way to refer to this part of the country. Build us up. Flatter people. GOTV.

[MoonRiver]

26. I don't know either, but it scares me. We must get in front of this ASAP.

Even if Biden runs and wins in 2024 we'll be facing the same thing in 2028. Americans are slow learners.

[Tadpole Raisin]

27. Biden will run

and hopefully win if republicans fail their voting suppression campaign. If he is healthy (and he seems to have more energy than those 20 years younger) he will see it through.

If not he will hand the reins over to Kamala during the second term. That might be good because I think Rs would mount quite a campaign against her and having at least a couple of years in the big chair will assuage some concerns whether founded or not.

She will have to be careful so they can’t twist her words or apply ulterior motives to her actions. They’ll do it anyway but she’ll need to be careful not to step in any traps.

[DFW]

28. Joe Biden my be fast approaching 80, but he has hit the job running as if he were half that

It may not be a pace he can keep up, but if he can, the nomination (and re-election) are his for the asking. If his health falters, that is another question. Harris will obviously have a claim to the nomination in that case, although I don't get saying that she has a shoe in anywhere (unless "shoo-in" was meant?).

Out of the last three Democratic presidents, exactly three of them, i.e. ALL OF THEM, have overcome incredible disadvantages to get to the Oval Office. Two of them coasted to re-election. If Joe Biden is up for it, I see no reason why he can't be the third. Precedent-setting has been the middle name of Democratic Presidents since 1976.

[SarcasticSatyr]

31. Isn't it a little premature to discuss who's running in 2024?

We need to concentrate on who's running in the midterms ..

[Boydog]

34. It's a message board. C'mon man 😂