Gallup Poll Crosstabs - R+22 in the South

[Ruby the Liberal]

Think this matters?

East: O+4
Midwest: O+4
South: R+22
West: O+6

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/17/1145957/-About-that-Gallup-poll

Edit - I didn't post this for South bashing - just pointing out that the devil is in the details on that R +6 tripe they put out...

[meow2u3]

1. It seems as if the South is overrepresented in the Gallup polls

I wonder why? Gallup had to oversample Southern conservatives.

[Ruby the Liberal]

6. That isn't an oversample per se

it is the margin between the candidates in the region.

[quinnox]

2. well, it is the South

I'm kinda surprised the margin isn't bigger, considering the region.

[Hamlette]

3. We should have lost the civil war.

yes, I know there are some nice people living in the south but really. Way to many redneck racists. Let them go, they can export cotton to us and we can export straight jackets to them.

[edhopper]

7. I understand your sentiment

but the abolition of slavery was too important. that said, they can leave now if they wish.

[Fawke Em]

24. Bigot.

One who regards or treats the members of a group (in this case, a region) with hatred and intolerance.

No... we should NOT let them (us) go. There are far too many progressives in the South, who like living here, to push the entire South out. It's bigoted to think otherwise.

[Hamlette]

30. Bigot seems a tad harsh considering what I said.

but whatever. Still, it was an act of treason and we should have let them go. I'll even throw in my state, Utah. A beautiful but politically useless place.

[Fawke Em]

41. No, it's not.

What "they" did was more than 200 years ago.

What's now is what's now.

Come down here and teach. If you're wealthy enough, buy a news station. Don't sit on your high horse and yell that we should have let one of the prettiest parts of our country go because you're too chicken to get off your ass and fight for it.

I live down here and am damned proud to be a progressive Southern white woman with a half Arabic child and a half Jewish child (race, not religion). You're a bigot for broad-brushing me.

[kath]

43. "More than 200 years ago"?? Huh?

[Hamlette]

46. Which is why my post said "I know there are some nice people living in the south"

so I didn't broad-brush you.

Your accusation that I am a bigot is uncalled for. It is also uncalled for to call me chicken or to advise me that I should buy a news station or how to live my life or to imply that saving the South because it is pretty is more important than any work I might be doing where I am. You know nothing about me. You do not know how I live my life. And likewise, I know nothing about you. Which is why I excluded you from my comment about the freaking civil war! (Which was not 200 years ago, just saying.)

[Hosnon]

48. "I know there are some nice people living in the south..."

"I'm not racist, but..."

Same shit, different target.

[Hamlette]

55. no, it is not the same shit

these people are not a protected class because they have a choice. There is no reason for them to be right wing nut jobs. Sheesh, you hare taking tolerance way too far when you say I have to be tolerant of the intolerance that is the majority of the South.

[Marr]

56. Boy, you make a shitty case for embracing the South.

It's bigotry simply to point out demographic information about the South? I'm amazed that someone with such a keen interest in discrimination thinks the Civil War was more than 200 years in the past.

[hifiguy]

51. No, but Reconstruction should have been far more harsh.

More like what was done to Japan and Germany after WW II. It should have lasted a minimum of 50 years and been enforced at the point of a bayonet for the entire time.

The Japanese and Germans got the message and became responsible world citizens. Too many in the South - not all, mind you, but too many - never did.

[TwilightGardener]

4. Once again, the rest of the country will step up and save us from

the South. Thank you for still existing, Electoral College.

[tabasco]

5. Buncha stupid motherfuckers.

'nuff said.

[Cali_Democrat]

12. Gallup or Southern White Republicans?

Or both?

[Lone_Star_Dem]

9. Hmm, let me think...

The south has a disproportionate amount of FOX news watching, Limbaugh hate radio meme spewing, knuckle dragging, bigoted, idiot Republicans.

Gallop is over sampling the south, and their polls are showing higher numbers than other polls which don't.

[cthulu2016]

13. They are not overcounting the south.

The four regions are defined by the US census and all the pollsters weight the results so that if a poll has too many easterners or too many southerners in the sample, those responses are increased or decreased in weight to match the known voting age population.

Gallup has a likely voter model that is too republican friendly in all regions. That is the problem.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

22. That totally makes sense.

My phone wasn't wanting to open the link so I was assuming. Which we all know is never a good idea.

[reflection]

10. That explains why I am drowning

in a sea of red-faced, beady-eyed right-wingers today at work. All of them breathing fire and simultaneously insisting Romney won and that the "Communist News Network" moderator made Romney lose.

[cthulu2016]

11. That is not unreasonable, and not a problem with the poll

The problem with the poll is that it has Romney up by 6% nationally due to Gallup's particular likely voter screen.

But whatever the right number is, the disparity between the south region and the other regions is huge. Is the true disaprity between south and west 28% total? We don't know... but it's in the 20's. Even if Obama wins in a landslide that difference between the south and everyone else will still be there, except it would be something like WEST O+15 SOUTH R+14.

The census uses four major divisions of the country and pollsters weight their responses by region, so the southern sample is counted as 32% of the total because that is the correct percentage of the electorate in the south (the most populous of the four regions)

Again, I am not saying +22% is correct. I am saying that the huge difference between the south and the other three regions is correct. In a poll Obama is winning a huge regional disparity will remain.

I think it is great news that even in a bad poll Obama is leading in three of the four regions.

[Ruby the Liberal]

15. Oh, I am not questioning their results.

This is great news! Even with Florida counted as 'south' the total EC won't make a dent in the total needed. Quite honestly, thats the only state down there that Ds have a shot at.

[cthulu2016]

18. The census southern region is big, so we have at least one wrapped up

Mayland is part of the SOUTH census region.

So MD and competative in VA and FL... and that's it for the south.

The census SOUTH region is every state that had slavery in 1858 except Missouri, and no free states.

(West Virginia broke away from Virginia in the civil war. Maryland was not in the confederacy, but was a slave state.)

[Ruby the Liberal]

19. Do you have a breakdown of these regions used for polling? nt

[cthulu2016]

20. i was wrong -- see below

[Ruby the Liberal]

21. Thank you.

Surprised to see MD and DE in the south.

[cthulu2016]

29. The Mason-Dixon line was the north border of MD

[bjhunt]

31. Actually, Gallup uses a different regional breakdown

Gallup doesn't use the US Census regions but breaks things down their own way. You can find how they divide things up here. Their breakdown is really a bit more intuitive than the Census's; for instance, Gallup puts Maryland in the East.

[npk]

39. According to your link:

It's only+10 for Romney in the South. Or am I reading that wrong.

[nsd]

42. The link is from July. Those numbers are old. /nt

[morningfog]

37. Here is Gallup's regional definitions.

Gallup's regional definitions are as follows:

East -- Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia and the District of

South -- Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

Midwest -- Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas

West -- Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska

[Jennicut]

25. Don't forget Delaware.

Our VP would not be happy about that!

[cthulu2016]

28. OOPS!

[cordelia]

14. Well, it turned into South bashing

pretty quickly.

And you didn't expect it. Uh huh.

[quinnox]

16. facts are facts

kind of hard to spin these poll numbers positively.

[Ruby the Liberal]

17. I edited it at 3pm

Which you will see as soon as we are off defcon and the 'edit' comes back to the posts, so step off.

Love,
Ruby who is from the South

[cordelia]

26. I saw it after your edit

and I stand by what I said.

You knew as well as anyone that this would turn into yet another tedious South bashing thread.

Got your wish.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

45. So what?

I live in Oklahoma which Gallup classifies as the south. Born and raised. Frankly this state and the region as a whole deserve whatever criticism it gets.

Yes, there are some progressives here and there, and we are all brave and gritty to endure living among cretins, but the region is a lost cause politically.

I'll never see another Dem governor in my state in my lifetime and I could live another 50 years. Ditto for the house and senate. I could live to be older than Moses and this state still wouldn't have medical marijuana.

Our state Democratic party is a lesson in ineptitude and has been for 15 years, at least. Our GOP legislature actually kicked around legislation to ban the use of fetuses for food in its last session. The could literally nominate a ham sandwich and the sandwich would carry my state on election day by a comfortable margin. And that's not meant to be a joke, unfortunately.

I get why people are sensitive about it but the reality is I dream of the day I get out of this shit hole for good, and I think most who share this burden would say the same thing if they were honest with themselves.

[Lex]

23. It probably just means the R support is super strong in the South, and so what?

I mean, we're looking at the Electoral College votes adding up, right?

Not that the R's have super strong support in states that aren't going to go to O anyway.

[Ruby the Liberal]

35. So what = trying to tone down the angst

over Gallup +6 for Rmoney today. The answers are in the crosstab details.

[maxrandb]

27. So Romney will win the Presidency of the Confederacy?

Good!

Not "south bashing", but I spent "a year one six months" in Pascagoula, MS with the Navy. I "used" to think Karachi, Pakistan was a shithole!

[tarheelsunc]

32. Seeing stats such as that make me want to move to a different state.

[Ruby the Liberal]

33. There is that, and there is

www.accuweather.com

One of the reasons I miss living down there.

[Zoeisright]

34. Then those in red states deserve their misery.

[Terra Alta]

36. even those in red states who vote Democratic?

The South does have a reputation for being full of rednecks, hicks, and hillbillies, but there are quite a few intelligent liberals here, and we're doing the best we can to get our states to swing blue.

[Lex]

40. Like all the black folks and all us other Democrats here?

What a bullshit thing to say. Like Romney's 47% comment.

[Nevernose]

38. The West also includes

Utah and Idaho. They just happened to be counterbalanced by CA, OR, WA, and oddly NV.

[Suji to Seoul]

44. Explain to me why we fought a bloody Civil War to bring them back into the country?

Southern States, by most accounts, have done little to progress the progress of this country.

Amazing to me that some of the poorest states in the country are some of the reddest states in the country, that take from the blue states, then complain about government handouts. Mississippi, Kentucky, West Virginia, Alabama, South Carolina. . .go figure.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

47. I am now a fan of the electoral college. nt

[DCBob]

49. Its entirely possible Obama will lose the national popular vote and win the election easily.

Who cares if Romney wins OK, AR, MS, LA, AL by landslides.. the EC vote is the same.

[B Calm]

52. As long as Obama takes the states

with high populations, Romney hasn't a chance of winning.

Unless they steal the election with those new electronic voting machines made by BAIN that they are using in Ohio this election!

[DCBob]

53. The EC vote favors the President at this point.

Ohio is the President best friend right now. A win in Ohio covers for possible loses in other swing states.

[Spider Jerusalem]

50. It matters in terms of national polls

in terms of electoral votes? Obama can and will win quite easily without most of the South. He can win Florida and Virginia; the rest of the South is irrelevant in terms of electoral outcome (and it's state level polling and not national polling that really matters).

[LynneSin]

54. Which is why I call national polls BULLSHIT

Romney could win every single vote in the deep SC, GA, MS,AL,KY,TN,AR,LA,TX and all that means is 126 votes.

Right now I have obama with 247 solid electoral votes so if OBama finds another 23 votes somewhere then he wins.