Higher COVID Rate Found In Some Counties With Higher Vaccination Rate

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Wow this is fascinating to me. In California, infection rates are higher where vaccination rates are higher. They are thinking now that people who are vaccinated may be infected and not know it and are infecting more people. Plus the more populous you are the more danger you have, duh
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2021/07/26/covid-vaccination-californi
a-counties/

[LisaL]

1. Another possibility is that vaccinated stopped all covid precautions,

and that's the result. I mean, if you stop masking, social distancing, start eating at restaurants, attend concerts and other mass gathering, it wouldn't be surprising if your risk goes way up.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. Exactly! Meaning some of us are infected and

Don't know it. I actually looked on CVS or Walgreens last week and saw where you can get a rapid test there. I want to know.

[phylny]

12. We got a regular test at CVS

and our results were ready the next day. Negative.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. Yay -

[PSPS]

4. I agree. Politicians bowed to the MAGA/business/media pressure to open things up too early.

Even states with democratic leaders caved in.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. I have so many relatives and Friends that have the attitude " I'm

vaccinated and I'm not worried"

Drove for 5 hours today and had a long time to think through the whole thing. I think it's a risk versus reward situation. For some, it is vitally important to them to be around other people and socialize. For others, that reward is not important. I will take more risk to see my loved ones than to go to the bar to watch a game.

[SoCalDavidS]

2. I Was Expecting Cases To Soar

But based upon what you're saying, it's going to be even worse than I imagine it will be.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. It's almost like nature may be helping us solve the problem tho

If this actually holds true, in California, it may force more people to get vaccinated?

Or am I missing the big picture? probably

[Ms. Toad]

26. The US is on target to hit 200,000 cases/day by mid-August.

The new CDC guidance on masking MAY slow it down a bit (if anyone bothers to listen), but it is too late to stop the essential nature of the surge. There is far too much momentum.

So unless you were imagining December-Jan-Feb sarting in August, yes - it will be worse than you imagine it will be.

[SoCalDavidS]

27. Yes, Momentum

We're really just starting to get the effects of July 4th weekend mixed in. And now we've got 3 weeks after that.

These mask "suggestions" will have very little impact in the places where things are the worst. And that, of course, will impact other places, since people are traveling everywhere right now. The virus is tagging along with many of them, whether going or returning.

There was a doctor on CNN last night, and he said 12 more weeks til the wave is over, that's mid-October. And that's if things don't get even worse.

[Ms. Toad]

30. That's more sophisticated modeling than I've been doing.

I'm pretty accurate at predicting close in targets (i.e where we will be in 2-4 weeks). I'm pretty accurate at recognizing when a downturn starts. I have no skill at all at predicting the end of the surge.

But - given past surges, assuming we do something to stop the surge (i.e. get more people vaccinated, mandate masks, mandate stay-at-home orders) that seems reasonable. If we do nothing to stop the surge, I suspect it will last longer than 12 weeks.

[Strelnikov_]

31. Just in time for State Fair season!

That should be good for another 100k or so.

[Ms. Toad]

32. I've been focused on the start of school.

I've got 134 little darlings (and counting) that I get to teach - with masking enforced using the honor system - starting August 7. Two groups - 24 hours of contact time each. One group of 90, one group of about 44.

I'm thrilled.



I just sent a note to my boss (who previously nicknamed me the COVID Cassandra) laying out the cold hard facts, and urging him to pus for better safety protocols (namely - you must prove vaccination to remove your mask.). Don't know that it will get me anywhere. But I'm the guinea pig since my classes start 2 weeks before anyone elses. (Last August, I got to pilot the hybrid teaching simultaneously in 3 classrooms and to the folks at home (about 120 total), since we had no classrooms which could hold more than about 30. That was the model we used all semester.)

[Strelnikov_]

33. Everything points to a bloodbath a month or so after schools go back into session

Half not vaccinated, no kids below 12 vaccinated.
No mitigation.
Highly contagious variant.
And now it appears that the vaccinated can be 'asymtomatic' (ie 'it's just allergies, I'm going to the State Fair!') superspreaders w/ delta.

Half the population susceptible to severe illness is more than enough to overwhelm the medical system.

Hopefully, CDC/FDA will get their act together so you can get a booster before school starts.

[Ms. Toad]

35. I start in 2 weeks. Not likely.

My daughter's boyfriend is in the "it's just allergies" state. Which turned into a cold (passed on to my daughter), then bronchitis. So far, both test negative (although on a rapid test). He had a PCR test in the ER today - so we should have a more definitive answer in a day or so. Until then, I'm masked up when home and avoiding home as much as possible.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

40. Please keep us posted.. hope it's still negative

[Ms. Toad]

41. Will do. n/t

[LisaL]

37. Vaccinated shouldn't be removing their masks either.

If they are infected, they can carry high viral load of delta, and infect others.

[Ms. Toad]

39. Agreed. But we're nowhere near that being a possibility.

I not even allowed to ask students if they are vaccinated, or to ask anyone to wear a mask.

The best i can hope for is some movement towards something other than a pure honor system.

[Effete Snob]

6. The phenomenon is called "risk compensation"

They used to play football without helmets.

They got helmets and started hitting harder with their heads.

They got more padding and started hitting even harder.

Unfortunately, there is a tendency to adjust one’s risk-taking behavior in response to the introduction of safety measures.

It’s a fascinating subject.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. Yes, it is! Like I said above, I've been thinking about

The whole risk versus reward subject all day.

Do you really think that analogy fits covid? Maybe you know somebody that's like this? I think of it more like the covid situation is extremely fluid. And gathering data is the key. And there are certain people that got vaccinated because they knew it was the right thing to do. They were told you were 95% safe. And willing to take the risk.
And they may not be hyperintellectual so they just go with that and think everything is hunky dory.

That is the saddest thing to me that information takes so long to reach critical mass.

[Effete Snob]

17. Bicycle helmets

In the Netherlands, cycling is an ordinary part of daily life. They don’t wear helmets, and have a lower rate of head injuries than places wear helmets are mandated.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation

A 1994 research study of people who both wore and habitually did not wear seatbelts concluded that drivers were found to drive faster and less carefully when belted.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

22. Very interesting.. Makes sense. Immediately thought of how much more careful

you are when there's no lifeguard.

[LisaL]

21. Your risk is going to be very different

if you are mostly sitting at home versus you are going out to restaurants, concerts, movies, etc.

[Binkie The Clown]

8. The key question is are infection rates high among ALL people, or just among unvaccinated people? nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. Yes. So much to learn, isn't there? I seldom hear anything about

those who have had covid as well. I read that they can get reinfected. So I would think they could be carrying a low viral load and infecting others as well.

[PortTack]

25. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

If there were figures as to how many hospitalizations there are, that would be telling

[Ms. Toad]

28. So, in a 50-50 vaccinated public -

when we hit 200,000 cases a day by mid-August, roughly 178,571 will be unvaccinated & 21,429 will be vaccinated. That is assuming mRNA vaccines. That is assuming an 88% efficiency of the mRNA vaccines against COVID. (I.e. no J&J cases, the Israeli data is unreliable - both of which would make more vaccinated cases ad fewer unvaccinated.)

[Doodley]

9. Surely, you'd expect rural counties to have low vaccination rates and infection rates.

Rural counties have lower population densities. The people don't tend to gather as much in such intensity. They don't see the threat of Covid affecting them as much. You would, therefore expect lower vaccination and infection rates.

[Phoenix61]

14. They aren't cramming onto public transport.

I do think it’s more to do with population density than anything else.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. I truly wonder why the government and the powers that be

Didn't explain that the situation you are in has so much to do with your risk. All they heard, all we were told was 95% effective. That is so wrong. It just takes common sense to know your risk is higher on a subway in NYC compared to a tent in the Colorado Rockies.

Maybe a true example of not wanting to scare people? Or feeling they need to dumb things down?

[Phoenix61]

20. Delta changed a lot of things.

The viral load is over 1,000 times that of the original virus. The higher the load the more virus a person sheds so the more transmissible. Current thinking is that even though the vaccine reduces the viral load since the Delta variant is so high the reduced load is more than adequate for transmission.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. Would you mind explaining that a little bit more? Dumb it down for me:)

Yes, the Delta viral load in a person who is vaccinated is small right? Hence that individual is not getting super sick.

BUT they are still infected and can infect others, although it was thought this was unlikely and rare.

Are you saying that the higher transmission rate is countering the small viral load?

[Phoenix61]

24. The Delta viral load is 1,250 times higher

than the original viral load. The vaccine knocked the original virus viral load down to a quarter of what is was in the unvaccinated. If you reduce 1,250 times down to a quarter (312 times) it’s still a much higher load than even the unvaccinated had of the original virus. So, vaccinated people who get covid may have a viral load higher than the unvaxed of other variants. The vaccine will knock the viral load down quicker so there’s less time to transmit it but… I understand why places are bringing back mask mandates.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

43. Sorry to be so dense. But your explanation explains why

Vaccinated people are getting infected by Delta. Correct? It does not explain why infection rates are higher among vaccinated people than unvaccinated people, correct?

[Phoenix61]

45. The vaccinated people live in more densely

populated areas so more opportunities for exposure than those living in rural areas.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

48. +1. Thanks

[Doodley]

36. I put it down to laziness on the part of the lawmakers. This surge could have been avoided, but the

messaging has been terrible.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

46. I don't know why I was surprised that Delta really did explode

In the US. Of course it seemed like a no-brainer that it would. But then no one in government seem to be doing anything proactively to ward it off I hoped the obvious was not going to happen.

It's like people think we went through it once with the original covid so we're done. Why not just say the FACT is this is a completely different animal? I thought things would be a lot different but they're not.

[Effete Snob]

19. Church

[cally]

10. I'm wondering if it relates to the spread

these counties had higher rates when covid first hit California. It slowly moved to the more rural areas

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. Excellent point! God there's so much to learn. I totally agree

That if you factor in how the original virus spread to our situation now it could speak volumes.

[Johonny]

29. I think it's just population, the big cities have a high vac rate, but high population density

LA county has like 10 million people. The big city counties just have a metric shit ton of people. So 70% vaccinated in a 10 million population county leaves 3 million unvaccinated living in a small area . . . It sort of makes sense. Also unvaccinated people tend to hang out together at church, at home, and at their Klan meetings. In the smaller counties in Cal the population density is way less.

[Strelnikov_]

34. Good point

30% of a lot of people, no mitigation any more. Throw delta into the mix, that's a lot of infections.

[pstokely]

38. denser areas will have higher numbers

what about % rates?

[marie999]

42. My great-grandson is on the junior varsity football team in high school.

His parents won't let him get vaccinated because they are afraid he will get too sick from the vaccine to play football. I told them if they don't get him vaccinated he may be too dead to play football. Unfortunately, there is nothing I can do about it.