Exclusive: The GOP could retake the House just by gerrymandering these four states

[Nevilledog]

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Ari Berman
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NEW: GOP could take back House in 2022 by picking up 6-13 seats under new gerrymandered maps in GA TX FL NC alone

Dems face redistricting bloodbath if they don’t pass ban on partisan gerrymandering ASAP

You can’t out-organize extreme gerrymandering

Exclusive: The GOP could retake the House just by gerrymandering these four states
A new study finds that Republicans could gain up to 13 seats in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
motherjones.com
6:23 AM · Jul 29, 2021

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/07/gop-could-retake-the-house-in-2022-just-by-gerrymandering-four-southern-states/

Before Georgia voted for Joe Biden, the biggest upset in recent state politics came when Democrat Lucy McBath became the first Black person to represent Newt Gingrich’s former congressional district.

Georgia’s Sixth District, home to the affluent northern suburbs of Atlanta, was long a bastion of deep-red Republicanism, represented by Gingrich for 20 years. But that changed in 2018, when college-educated white voters shifted their allegiance to the Democrats and joined with an influx of Black, Latino, and Asian Americans who’d moved to the suburbs. They teamed up to elect McBath, a political novice who had turned to activism after her 17-year-old son, Jordan Davis, was murdered by a white man in Florida in 2012, and decided to run for Congress after the Parkland high school shooting in early 2018. “The work was calling me,” she told Mother Jones that year.

McBath’s victory, which helped Democrats retake the House of Representatives, exemplified Democratic inroads in formerly red states like Georgia and the new power being exercised by communities of color in fast-diversifying Southern states. But those gains could quickly be wiped away—and districts like McBath’s eliminated—by GOP dominance of the next redistricting cycle, which will begin when the Census Bureau releases nationwide demographic data by August 16.

Republicans could pick up anywhere from six to 13 seats in the House of Representatives—enough to retake the House in 2022—through its control of the redistricting process in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas alone, according to a new analysis by the Democratic data firm TargetSmart that was shared exclusively with Mother Jones. Republicans need to gain just five seats to regain control of the House.

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[dsc]

1. It is bad but leaving out NY and IL is a bit misleading

We should gain some seats in those states to offset some of the loss. But NC will definitely give the GOP seats. We are currently 8 to 5 GOP and we will almost surely wind up 10 to 4 GOP (we gained a seat in apportionment).

[JudyM]

2. K&R for continued importance.