Gavin Newsom Has Reason To Worry

[brooklynite]

538

Until last week, there had been no new polls of the recall election in about a month. But since then, we’ve gotten two — and both showed Newsom in danger of being recalled. First, an Emerson College/Nexstar Media survey found that 48 percent of registered voters in California wanted to keep Newsom in office, while 43 percent wanted to recall him. Then, a poll from the University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Governmental Studies co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found that 50 percent of likely recall voters wanted to keep Newsom and 47 percent wanted to oust him. These fresh polls — both within the margin of error — differed markedly from a handful of surveys released in May and June that found the recall effort trailing by at least 10 percentage points.

Who casts a ballot in this unusually timed election could be pivotal. The UC Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll underscored why: Among registered voters, Republicans were far more likely to say they’d vote than Democrats or independents. Eighty percent of Republican registered voters said they were absolutely certain to vote, compared with only 55 percent of Democrats and about half of independents. As such, likely voters were opposed to removing Newsom by only 3 points, while the spread was much wider among all registered voters — 51 percent were opposed to removing him compared with just 36 percent in favor (in line with the pollster’s findings in early May and late January). In fact, Republicans’ enthusiasm for this race is so high that they make up roughly one-third of the survey’s likely electorate, even though they constitute only about one-quarter of California’s registered voters.

Irregularly timed elections, like a gubernatorial recall held in September of an odd year, can produce unexpected results and lopsided electorates. However, there’s one reason why that might not happen in this race: California has extended its pandemic-inspired election-law changes that require ballots to be automatically mailed to all active registered voters through the end of 2021. Mail elections don’t inherently help the Democratic Party, but studies have found that they do increase turnout, which could help insulate Newsom from a scenario where only his most fervent opponents bother to cast a ballot.

It’s tempting to point to COVID-19 as the chief cause for why Newsom is in hot water since the pandemic helped galvanize the recall effort in the first place. The highly contagious delta variant has led to an uptick in cases of COVID-19 in California, and Newsom is now weighing whether to impose statewide restrictions, which could further energize his opposition. (Los Angeles County has already reinstated an indoor mask mandate.) The governor has also had disputes with teachers unions and school administrators over the reopening of schools, and many Californians are still frustrated by the state’s continually changing vaccination-distribution plan. Yet Newsom’s handling of the pandemic might not be his biggest liability. A slightly greater share of likely voters in the Berkeley poll agreed with the statement that Newsom should be recalled “because he has failed to adequately address many of the state’s longstanding problems,” such as homelessness, income inequality and wildfires (48 percent), than agreed with the statement that he should be recalled “because he greatly overstepped his authority as governor when responding to the COVID-19 pandemic” (44 percent).

[hlthe2b]

1. Please, California Dems/Indies. Get past your disgruntlement-- for the good of all.

Massive turnout is needed to counter a very engaged RW. Letting a Trump-loving RWer in the governor's chair is just unfathomable!

[BlueStater]

2. Oh, bullshit.

He’s not going to lose. The media just wants to make this epic waste of time and money into something bigger than it actually is.

[tinrobot]

3. I don't want people to get complacent.

Going around saying "he's not going to lose" won't help with turnout.

He could easily lose if turnout is low.

[BlueStater]

5. The first recall was successful because they had an A-list celebrity running.

They have a bunch of nobodies running this time and most Californians can see this for the pathetic power grab that it is.

I don’t usually make political predictions, but I think Newsom will win comfortably.

But, yes, I agree with you that he should still take it seriously. Not taking things seriously is how we ended up with Trump.

[JohnSJ]

4. If the recall is successful, I believe it is a very bad sign for Democrats in 2022

Compared to other states the number of signatures required for a recall is extremely low. While other states require at least 25% of the number of voters in the last election, California is set at an extremely low 12%.

There have been about 3 previous attempts against Newsom for a recall, and all had failed. It succeeded this time because a judge allowed 3 months more time to gather signatures for the recall.

As long as Democrats get out the vote, the recall should fail.

Because the Governor can appoint a Senator's replacement, if that Senator vacates the office, it is an extremely precarious situation at the federal level to have a republican governor there, with the thin margins already in the Senate.

This special election will cost the state a tremendous amount of money, along with the next election for Governor which will be in November 2022.

A significant amount of money from extreme right wing sources outside the state have poured money in for this recall.

file:///D:/politics/4%20needed%20reforms%20of%20California%E2%80%99s%20recall%20election%20rules%20_%20CalMatters.html

While this polling may be an accurate reflection, it needs to be pointed out that in previous recent elections the pollsters have a very mixed record