1 in 1300 - Chances of Vaccinated Catching Covid

[TheProle]

WASHINGTON — At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid and 1,400 of those have died, according to data collected by NBC News.

The 125,682 "breakthrough" cases in 38 states found by NBC News represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people who have been fully vaccinated since January, or about one in every 1,300. The number of cases and deaths among the vaccinated is very small compared to the number among the unvaccinated. A former Biden adviser on Covid estimated that 98 to 99 percent of deaths are among the unvaccinated.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500

[maxsolomon]

1. But... I was told on DU that it happens "often"!

is 1 in 1300 "often"?

[TheProle]

2. Depends on if you're the 1

I reckon.

[JanMichael]

14. Well I personally know 1 fully vaccinated person that caught it and died.

In his 50's and healthy as an ox. But dead.

The other had two/three weeks of what could be called a bad bad cold. No covid test though, was able to keep fever down with OC drugs, so never went to the doc (in 80's but whatever). Loss of smell, weakness, night sweats, cough and fever.

And another fully vaccinated person that probably gave it to the second person (related) also never got tested. Had a "cold" 3 days before the other person got sick.

My guess is that most mild symptom vaccinated people are not getting tested at all so there's that.

[Crunchy Frog]

16. How many of the Texas Democratic legislators caught it?

What percentage of the total were they?

[LisaL]

30. Six out of 60.

So 10 percent.

[Crunchy Frog]

35. A little more than one in 1300 then.

[LisaL]

38. A lot more, right?

This one out 1,300 number is bogus.
First of all, the number of breakthrough infections are for 38 states, not all 50 states. Second of all, we are not testing a lot of people, so who knows how many breakthrough infections there actually were. And third of all, breakthrough numbers are going up, up, up because of delta.

[Crunchy Frog]

42. I was trying to be understated in my reply. It was meant more for the OP than you.

[BannonsLiver]

32. I'm sure someone will be along to tell us how the scientists are wrong soon.

[DenaliDemocrat]

46. It's not truly 1 in 1300

That is a gross misapplication of statistical methods. You would need to purposely expose people both vaccinated and unvaccinated to give that number any credence.

[maxsolomon]

50. IIRC it was an assertion that Long-Haul Covid

happened "often" among the vaxxed.

I shouldn't make meta-referenced to other threads...

[LisaL]

3. Since delta started spreading, it's a whole different ballgame.

NT

[triron]

9. That's unclear right now.

[Peppertoo]

13. No, it's the same. The risk of dying or even hospitalization is really low if you are vaccinated

[marie999]

41. But can't you infect children?

[muriel_volestrangler]

43. Thread title wasn't about hospitalization or dying, it was about catching it

so it's correct to say that the delta variant changes the statistics a lot.

[Celerity]

51. +1

and even if you are talking about the origin strain (the least virulent) the OP's claim is absolutely false, and to a staggering degree

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215682169#post45

[muriel_volestrangler]

44. No, it is clear that the chances of infection with the delta variant are significantly higher

for the vaccinated, compared to the 'base' or alpha variants. That's why experts are saying things like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/30/covid-delta-variant-guidelines-masks-cdc-paper-transmission
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/30/1022867219/cdc-study-provincetown-delta-vaccinated-breakthrough-mask-guidance

[TheFarseer]

47. I also wonder

Are a lot more people catching Covid than we realize because they don’t have any symptoms or only mild symptoms and don’t get tested because they are vaccinated and assume it must not be Covid? Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if unvaccinated are doing likewise if their symptoms are mild because they just don’t care.

[enki23]

4. I understand the intent here, and agree with the concept

But that's entirely the wrong way to estimate something like this

[Hortensis]

5. Reports are all over the place right now. Evening news just reported

@35,000 vaccination breakthroughs in a week out of the total vaccinated nationally, 0.02% I think. Slightly different presentation of data from the OP.

Meanwhile, a CNBC headline today is "A CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid outbreak were fully vaccinated." Turns out they're not necessarily sick but carrying the virus, very alarming but different story.

Grim, but it's a whole fruit market of info out there, and exactly what is being discussed varies big time.

[LisaL]

6. Vast majority of them were symptomatic.

So they were sick.

[Hortensis]

10. Whatever. My point is that we need to

pay attention to exactly what is being reported. Including what is meant by being sick.

[uponit7771]

8. That's 5,000 a day which is just 5% of the number of cases per day now which is inline with ...

... what was expected from vaxes.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[GulfCoast66]

11. Thank you. I understood that when I got vaccinated it did not mean I was as totally immune.

I had hopes the vaccine would except in rare instances prevent hospitalization and death. That is now shown to be true.

If we had 85% vaccinated this shit would be gone by the end of August. Not enough people getting it too keep it moving.

Vaccinations are rising pretty rapidly now. I think those who are lazy or on the fence are making their move. In a month only those who will never get the vaccine will be unvaccinated.

[uponit7771]

12. +1, that's my understanding too that vaxed wasn't supposed to mean immune like Polio vax ...

... and there's very very small chance of going critical/lethal affects from an infection.

Vaxed also didn't mean spread would stop among the vaxed but would slow down among the vaxed so I don't understand the CDC suggestion that the vaxed should mask up again.

The unvaxed aren't going to mask up and the horrid amount of spread is among them

[GulfCoast66]

15. I really don't think the CDC knows what to do. And can't blame them.

We have a deadly pandemic and an amazing effective group of vaccines that protect people. I’m not sure they had ever thought of a situation like this where 35% of the people are refusing to take the vaccine. I would not have believed it last October.

There recommendations will not be followed by many governments but lots of businesses will follow them.

[LisaL]

18. What is there to understand?

Even if you are vaxxed, you can still get infected. If you are infected, you carry a large viral load and can infect other people. Given that, why shouldn't you wear a mask?

[GulfCoast66]

19. Well, I agree with you. But maybe not the way you meant.

I’m masking again to protect myself and the wife from getting it. Not worried at all we will go to the hospital, but we just don’t want the shit. But also to protect those who can’t get vaccinated or who are immune compromised.

I’m not worried about those who refuse the vaccine at all.

[uponit7771]

28. No, the people who are at critical/lethal risk should take precautions. It does no good for me to

... to wear 2 sets of seat belts in a spec'd car because some other driver doesn't want to wear one. The extra sets of seat belts is not going to help me in case of an accident and me wearing two sets of seat belt isn't going to stop enabling a unsafe driver like a ticket or penalties would.

Right now people have resources to stay safe if they're in the critical/lethal risk category even with being vaxed. 200 million people who have done the right thing shouldn't be suffering for the relatively who are left by now who won't do the right thing. The people who can't take a vaccine are no doubt employing resources to stay safe or they should be.

This is the case especially seeing the Delta would spread even if I was vaxed because the vaccination wasn't immunity against infection it was immunity against critical lethal outcome and it's doing a decent job at that.

Vax cards, quick test, convalescent treatments and financial incentives are way more useful for the 90 million left who aren't vaccinated by now

[LisaL]

34. CDC now tells you that you should wear a mask if you live in a substantial/high transmission area.

Even if you are vaccinated, if you are infected (which you can be) you are going to spread it to others.
Some are not even eligible to be vaccinated, like children under 12.
So doing the right thing in this case is to wear the mask, unless you don't care if you infect other people.

[uponit7771]

37. There's little to no proof the majority of the spread is coming from the vaccinated ...

... and as it's been said before multiple times the people who are at risk should take precautions regardless if the vaccinated or masked or not.

Of course I care if I affect other people but not at the behest of useless efforts. The logic behind masking up right now for the vaccinated is not related to data, seeing there isn't anything pointing to the onus or majority of the spread coming from the vaccinated

I do not agree with the CDC move here

[LisaL]

39. What proof are you expecting?

NT

[uponit7771]

40. Something empirical similar to what Israel is doing but with proof spread is happing at similar rate

... among the vaxed as it is with unvaxed ..... for instance.

Without proof the vaxed are spreading delta like the unvaxed masking the vaxed seems performative.

Even if the vaxed are spreading to the numbers of the unvaxed the vaccinations weren't meant to be immunity and spread even among the people who took vaccination precautions was a known known.

I think the CDC should reconsider their recommendation

[Deminpenn]

48. That CDC analysis was frustrating

It was a total of 211 people all tested using the same test by the same lab. The whole guidance was based on the fact that it took an average of 23 copies (Ct, thermal cycles in the tests) 1to gain a "positive" result from both the vaccinated group of 127 and the unvaccinated group of 84. The CDC concluded that because the copies were about equal, the viral load was equal and therefore vaccinated people spread the virus at the same rate as unvaccinated people.

Here is a link to the chart used that for Cts:

You can see a much narrower range of positive results for the unvaccinated than for the vaccinated. The unvaccinated ranged from 15-35 while the vaccinated ranged from 15-40. It appears the bulk of positives for the unvaccinated went from 20-25 cycles while the unvaccinated went from 20-28.

Having spent my federal career looking at ranges of numbers, seeing a scatter plot or a chart of Cts by day of specimen collection or even just publishing the mode (most commonly occuring number) and median (half above and half below) would have been helpful in interpreting the data.

Even if the authors hedged by saying

Although the assay used in this investigation was not validated to provide quantitative results, there was no significant difference between the Ct values of samples collected from breakthrough cases and the other cases. This might mean that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 is also similar. However, microbiological studies are required to confirm these findings.

, they have made a real mess and caused unnecessary confusion.

[totodeinhere]

26. The reason why a high percentage of the hospitalized cases in Massachusetts are vaccinated people

is because Mass has a very high vaccination rate. So if the virus is going to infect anybody it is more likely to infect a vaccinated person since there are so many more of the of them versus unvaccinated people. This outcome has been expected all along and it is no reason for alarm. A more telling statistic is what percentage of vaccinated people require hospitalization and that number is low.

[Hortensis]

29. Yes. And, as in this, we need to find out what the numbers really mean,

which is very often quite different from first impressions.

[uponit7771]

7. K&R, ... and it looks like the HORRID AMOUNT of spread isn't among the vaxed but the unvaxed

[DontBelieveEastisEas]

17. Too many variables but we do have empirical evidence.

I am a breakthrough case. (2nd Pfizer in Early April, COVID in Early July)
I've only been that lucky once before in my life. (unless OP guestimate of 1:1,300 is off)

I probably caught COVID from the very first time I had maskless and close contact with my grandson after a year and a half of always wearing an N95 around him.
_______________________________________________

Here are some hypothetical and or grossly approximated thoughts.

Let's say the vaccinated represent 50%.

That 50%, as a group is likely quite different than the other 50%
Skews older.
Skews sicker.
Skews more careful. (and some less careful since vaccinated and healthy and younger)
Skews more urban.
Skews more liberal.
Skews more likely for the healthier ones to have thought themselves no longer at high risk.
etc etc

It is apples to oranges.


But we do have the empirical evidence of breakthrough clusters.
You wouldn't have that at 1 to 1,300 that OP speaks of.
Are these clusters a new variant that is beyond Delta?
Like Delta+ that I heard about?




P.S. Other than a runny nose for a couple of days 2 years ago, it is the first time I have been sick in 7 years.
Be afraid, be very afraid.

[GulfCoast66]

20. How are you doing? I hope you are well soon

[DontBelieveEastisEas]

22. Thank You for your concern and well wishes

I am doing well. But I worry about some lung and brain damage. (perhaps other damage as well)

Started with a slightly scratchy sore throat. I am very careful about using alcohol on my hands and apples, etc etc, germs in general and so that rarely happens to me.

My Grandson had tested positive about a week before and I had been close around him 5 days & 6 days before the day I noticed my slightly scratchy throat.
I immediately got tested PCR and was positive.

The next day a slightly running nose and a slight tendency to want to cough.
Fever was coming in at about 99.2 or 99.3 when my normal was 97.5
About the 3rd day I lost my smell.

Slowly starting on about day 6 my smell began to return.
Feeling pretty good the last couple of days.
But for most of the last 3 weeks, I feel like someone punched me in the head during a boxing match.
Not a headache.
Also, still a slight phlegm in the upper upper respiratory area. So slight that I rarely get any to come out. So, it is mostly, as they say, a dry cough. I got to thinking that I was creating phlegm by forcibly coughing when trying to avoid phlegm getting deeper into my lungs.

I'm fearful that this could cause the beginning of COPD or more mucous in my lungs permanently. Or leave behind some reduced lung capacity, however slight.

I read today that loss of smell, and it's duration may be correlated to cognitive decline. It seems smell is processed in the same area of the brain as much of the area that is involved in Alzheimer's.


I always figured I was at high risk because of many slight comorbidities or things like blood type.
So, I think being vaccinated saved my a lot of hurt.


My wife was not vaccinated and spent some time in the hospital to get a treatment and did have minor oxygen assistance.
Of course, I'm much more worried about the long term damage that she may have incurred.

[totodeinhere]

27. Sorry to hear you caught it again and I hope you are well soon.

But in hindsight it looks like you made a big mistake when you had close contact with your grandson while not wearing a mask.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

21. One thing that seems clear to me is how widely and wildly different

are different people's reactions to getting Covid. As well as to getting vaccinated.

In the first, getting Covid, reactions range from totally asymptomatic to dying. As for getting vaccinated, some people are quite sick for several days after one or both (in the two-shot regimes) shots. Others, like me, have zero reaction other than the shot itself hurt somewhat.

The huge variance in individual immune systems is at work here. Speaking only for myself, I'm an extraordinarily healthy person with a very robust immune system. I'm 72 years old, rarely sick -- well, okay, I have hay fever but it's annoying, not serious -- never get a flu vaccine, last had flu in maybe 1973, had all the usual childhood diseases for someone my age, and well I could go on and on, but you get the idea. Others reading this are more fragile, get sick more easily, have various health issues. My point is we are all quite different, and it feels as if Covid is somehow capitalizing on that.

I'm not sure I can particularly generalize from this, other than to repeat that this is a function of different people's vastly different immune systems.

I did get the J&J vaccine in March, and I'm honestly feeling as safe from Covid as I can possibly be. I also mask when I go out, and do go out all that often.

I wish good health to all of you.

[róisín_dubh]

23. I caught it, unfortunately.

But...I'm pretty much back to normal now, except my taste and smell. I started showing symptoms a week ago. I never developed any severe symptoms (not even close); my highest fever was 99.5 (for about 4 hours or so); I've got a mild cough from time to time, but I've definitely had worse coughs after a strenuous workout.
Truth be told, it felt like a bad bout of hay fever or a mild cold. I've had the flu way, WAY worse despite a flu vaccine. The most annoying part is that I may test positive for weeks or months...and I'm supposed to fly internationally in 2 weeks. This has created a headache I didn't really anticipate- getting cleared for travel.

My friend, from whom I suspect I caught COVID, is only partially vaccinated because of the way the UK has spaced out shots 1 and 2. He had pretty bad fatigue and a headache. But he's mostly back to 80-90% as well.

The vaccine has been doing what it is supposed to do, as you say. It is not "immunity". It is an excellent insurance policy against severe disease and death. I figure now I'm in good shape through the winter, as I'm about 99% sure I've had the Delta variant.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

25. I sincerely hope you continue to recover.

My sister, who had one of the 2 shot vaccines (I don't recall which one) had an episode a month or so ago where she lost her sense of smell for a day or so. She's convinced she got a breakthrough case of Covid, although she didn't get tested. But the loss of smell is such a strong indicator, she's probably right.

She has more contact with various people than I do, especially through her grandchildren. I have no grandchildren and live a very quiet and circumscribed life in a different part of the country.

Yes, I have a very strong faith in my immune system, but that faith has not kept me from getting vaccinated. These days I'm generally masking, especially in a grocery store, but honestly that has more to do with recent dental surgery and new dentures and my own personal vanity. It is very convenient that I can mask for peripheral reasons and not be questioned. It does help that I live in Santa Fe and many people here are still masking.

In a way it's a shame that this virus isn't more often fatal, to rid the world of the idiots who won't vaccine or wear masks. Not that I really wish death on others, but still.

[Deminpenn]

49. Similar story here

except for getting the Pfizer shot.

[Spider Jerusalem]

24. That can't necessarily be concluded from the data at hand

those are the numbers of people who felt ill enough to go in and have a test; we don't know how many people had symptoms like hayfever or a mild cold who aren't counted (but who may, with the Delta variant, have been contagious), so that number could be off by a factor of two.

[Captain Stern]

31. Nope. Not exactly.

The article doesn't say there is a 1 in 1300 chance of catching Covid if you're vaccinated.

It says that 1 out of 1300 vaccinated people have already caught Covid.

Those two things are not the same.

[LisaL]

33. Add to that, we really aren't testing a lot of people.

People who are getting tested in US are presumably the ones with symptoms severe enough for them to go get tested.
We are missing a lot of infections. So that 1 in 1300 number is bogus to begin with.

[Polybius]

36. They're using stats from the beginning of vaccinations

Try using stats from July 15th on and watch it change.

[Celerity]

45. absolutely false claim (and I have the receipts)

You are literally claiming that vaccines, across the board, all vaccines, all variants, have a 99.924% effectiveness rate at preventing infection.

Your exact words were

Chances of Vaccinated Catching Covid

You did not say having symptomatic illness, or say having severe illness, or requiring hospitalisation, or say ending up with ICU level illness and/or death.

No, you said simply catching the infection.

This is simply untrue.

1. The CDC doesn't even track non hospitalised breakthrough cases for vaxxed people.

2. The actual scientific studies show that at BEST (Pfizer against the origin strain) the top-performing vaccine had a 95% or so efficacy rate at preventing infection. That is down to (again with the best vax results) 80% against Delta for the Pfizer vax at preventing infections, (88% efficacy are preventing symptomatic disease). J & J is far worse across the board, 66-72% for the origin strain, and now studies are showing as low as 33% against Delta (and that is just preventing symptomatic disease, NOT stopping all infections). Against certain variants, certain vaccines are a complete fail. The non US-used (but massively used in other nations) AstraZeneca vaccine, for instance, only has a 10.4% efficacy rate versus the Beta (B.1.351 aka South African) variant.

3. Efficacy from clinical trails is very often higher than real world EFECTIVENESS.


https://www.factcheck.org/scicheck_digest/what-does-it-mean-to-say-a-vaccine-has-94-percent-efficacy-or-higher/