Your Vaccine Booster Calculator

[WHITT]

According to the latest Pfizer trial, efficacy peaked at 96.2% during the interval from 7 days to less than two months post-dose #2, and declined gradually to 83.7% from 4 months post-dose #2 to the end of the trial, an average decline of about 6% every two months.

One could assume a continued decline in efficacy of ABOUT 6% every two months going forward from your second shot, and that the Moderna vaccine is likely quite similar.

Bring on the boosters!

[Lunabell]

1. I'm ready for my booster too!

No drowning in my own body fluids for me, thank you.

[global1]

2. Based On The Info In Your Post - Somebody Could Put Together A Calendar....

that predicts when one would need a booster. It needs to be based on the date you received your second dose and be projected out through the following months.

For example: If you received your 2nd Pfizer Dose on March 25, 2020 then you should expect to get your booster shot on X Month & Day in 2021.

[WHITT]

3. That Was My Intent

[lapucelle]

4. Do you have a link? Thanks! N/T

[Scrivener7]

5. I was vaccinated early. This makes me nervous.

[bamagal62]

6. and, again....

what about the J&J folks????

[Merlot]

8. Huh, what? J and who? It's like talking to a wall when asking about J&J

I actually think I may have had the delta about 3 weeks ago. Really light symptoms which at the time I didn't even realize were symptoms. If that is true, well then, yay J&J.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

16. Maybe the J&J is even better than the other two?

I have the J&J myself, and I'm honestly not at all concerned at this point about needing a booster.

[WHITT]

17. Well

J&J and Astra Zeneca are are both a different vaccine platform from the mRNA Pfizer and Moderna, and they started out less effective, as they are a hybrid version of old technology. Of course, none of that would matter if it weren't for the Delta variant, which as we've seen from the leaked release, the CDC is treating as if it were an entirely new virus.

Anyway, all covid vaccines are slowly losing their effectiveness.

[PortTack]

7. Pfizer says it's vaccine is 84% effective at the 6 month period

https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/28/22598151/pfizer-covid-vaccine-efficacy-drop-booster

[msfiddlestix]

9. So I was vaccinated in March, first one. Moderna. I can't remember now if it was 3 or 4 weeks

later for the second one. Anyhow. How low should we consider efficacy as being too insufficient, I wonder?

50% seems too low to me.

What's the math on that data point?

[ornotna]

10. 4 weeks for Moderna

I got that one as well.

[msfiddlestix]

12. oh, thanks.

6% efficacy loss every two months. So now, do we count the first shot, or the second?

Let's go with the second. just to be on the safe side.

So that was 4 months ago roughly, efficacy loss at 12%. or 88% percent inoculation efficacy. By September, that will be just under 75%. getting too close to 50/50 margin if the boosters aren't available by then. Or is that the wrong application I wonder?

[ornotna]

11. Very effective against the Delta

The same Canadian study that found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be 87 percent effective suggested that the Moderna vaccine was 72 percent effective against the delta variant after one dose.

There wasn’t enough data to calculate protection after two doses for Moderna. It’s also important to point out that the study has not yet been peer reviewed.

After one dose, not too shabby.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-19-vaccines-work-against-the-delta-variant#Vaccines-vs.-delta-variant

[msfiddlestix]

13. Ok, this is more reassuring..

good to know. thanks!

[Celerity]

14. That poster is conflating efficacy numbers. That 88% is for symptomatic

disease prevention. It is 80 percent effective in preventing infection from the delta variant. That preventing infection number is what the original 95% efficacy rate for Pfizer that all are so familiar with comes from. Also, in terms of preventing hospitalisation, it is 96% effective against Delta, not this 99.9% (or even higher) I have seen tossed about by some for weeks. 96% is still very high, but it is far from the 'basically nobody who is vaxxed will end up in the hospital' posturing I see over and over.

Also bear in mind, this is Pfizer numbers, Moderna is slightly less effective against Delta, and Johnson & Johnson is significantly worse. I also see this thus 'oh even with just one shot only (of the mRNA vaxxed) you are fine against Delta' misinfo. That is absolutely not true. You are talking about efficacy rates in the 30's/40's or so, percentage wise. Look at the UK. A several weeks ago, 40% of all Covid hospitalisations were either fully or partially vaxxed. The UK (fucking Tory scum) and other countries tried to be two clever by half and go for one jab only and then wait 2 months or more for the next one.

The reason that true efficacy (IE preventing infection completely) is so vital with Delta is it's extremely high transmissibility rates and the fact that asymptomatic infected people can still be super spreaders. The viral load in the nasal and upper respiratory tracts for asymptomatic infected people is 1,000 to almost 1,300 times great than a person who was asymptomatic with the Alpha variant (the UK one) and 10,000 to almost 13,000 times greater than with the origin strain.

Finally as a separate matter, the numbers in the OP are for the original strain, NOT Delta.

[WHITT]

19. There's The Rub

The standard the CDC is using is basically small chance you won't be hospitalized or die, which is great, and I'm appreciative, BUT I can still get seriously ill and recover and THEN have some long-haul medical issue for lord knows how many years. I DON'T WANT THAT.

That's where their standard differs from my standard. We see Israel is already providing boosters to those 60 and older or over 60, whatever, and I assume they will then start ratcheting down the age blocks, and by dates. It will need to happen here eventually, so we should just get on with it.

[LisaL]

21. Yes, Israel is already giving out boosters.

They are not waiting for "whatever." Israel got Pfizer. So there is no way their data saying they need boosters is going to be different from ours, since we mostly used Pfizer and a very similar vaccine, Moderna.
So how come we are being told we don't need boosters?

[Celerity]

25. So many articles globally are all over the place with what they mean

by 'effective'. So often they just cite a percentage and never say if it means efficacy against transmission, efficacy against symptomatic disease, efficacy against hospitalisations of any severity, efficacy against ICU level grave illness, or efficacy against lethality.

It becoming a bit of a shitshow of ambiguity, and is leading our officials (other than a handful) to make incorrect statements which cause confusion and undermine credibility. I see the same done here by posters, some wilfully, to push some sort of framing they are locked into (NOT at all talking about the poster my first reply was about, they had zero ill intent).

[msfiddlestix]

27. A "shit show of ambiguity" indeed.

To the point.

[Celerity]

29. I also forgot to mention do they mean against COVID in general or against a particular variant,

especially Delta (atm).


Perfect example of this (someone posted this article up-thread):

Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine’s protection against severe disease holds steady over six months

Efficacy dropped for symptomatic disease overall

https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/28/22598151/pfizer-covid-vaccine-efficacy-drop-booster

THIS study (in that article) was not significantly (if at all) impacted by Delta, it was done too early (the rolling 6 moths time frames for 16 year olds and above ended between the end of January and the end of April, 2021) and it was not done in places where Delta was dominant.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf

[msfiddlestix]

30. So many data points to absorb and analyses

Frankly, it's overwhelming.

I think it just gets down to the basic fundamental principles of preventative measures, and get the booster when available.

The problem with the anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers who are in my view, delusional paranoid assholes and largely responsible for the super spread due to their paranoid delusions and should be shamed at every turn, cannot be allowed to rule over common sense.

CDC needs to get their act together with clear and consistent messaging and admit what is unknown but working on answers and lay out with as much clarity as possible what IS known. Which could change day to day.

As regards to basic preventative measures, that should include mandates with regards to masking, restrictions for large gatherings, and vaccinations, under Civil Defense protocols. National Security is at extreme risk. Which should translate to everything else we do and enact under the name of National Security. And that includes the Military. My father had to subject to numerous vaccinations with every tour of duty out of country, which included Viet Nam, Okinawa, South Korea, Laos and Cambodia.

It's absolutely insane to me that we're pussy footing around this shit.

Our country had been vulnerable to pandemics and epidemics in the past history and our democracy did not suffer when treated for the serious and deadly threat they were.

I'm very concerned for my youngest granddaughter heading into 5th grade, too young to get vaccinated at this juncture. My oldest granddaughter is vaxxed and she's heading into 8th grade, school opening next week.

She could spread it to her sister... this is just intolerable.

[msfiddlestix]

28. excellent points

as suggested below, maybe we apply pressure on our care providers to get the booster.

I think I may be in a bit of a quagmire, (or maybe not) my health provider is Kaiser who is supplied with Phizer , but I got vaccinated with Moderna at the fairgrounds sponsored by Safeway and Att&T .

Wonder if it matters which pharm brand is used for the booster, if Moderna was used in the first instance.

Probably shouldn't be a problem. But I want a booster as soon as possible, if six months out the first two stabs isn't enough.

[WHITT]

18. There's The Question

How low should we consider efficacy as being too insufficient, I wonder?

I understand why the CDC, via the administration, doesn't want to discuss boosters yet, as they're trying to get reluctant folks to get the initial shots, and they're gonna say then I have to get more?

What they're gonna do is watch the breakthrough numbers, but obviously that's not exactly preventative is it?

[LisaL]

20. So those of us who wanted the vaccine are going to be punished

because of those who don't?

[WHITT]

22. You're Asking The Wrong Person

I think we should start providing boosters to those above a certain age (pick one), prioritizing those with earlier start dates. Waiting and then trying to play catch-up on this would be a mistake.

[LisaL]

24. I agree.

FDA and CDC appear to be waiting for more vaccinated to start getting infected? How can we have different results from Israel, we used the same vaccine?

[msfiddlestix]

26. exactly my concerns.. hmm

maybe we press for it now. I'm intending to contact my primary care doctor, who is with Kaiser.

Unfortunately in California for reasons not clear to me, Kaiser was treated rather like a step child when it came to receiving stockpile distributions apparently directed from the Gov. admin.

It appeared that Blue Shield was first in line and I really don't get that. Seniors were getting their first vaccines from independent roll out kiosk kind of operations, but Kaiser didn't have enough of the stockpiles available to them until after the initial first two phases of vaccination drives.

I have Kaiser as my primary care but I didn't get my vaccination from them. I got mine from an operation set up at the fairgrounds sponsored by Safeway and AT&T! They did a fantastic job, but certainly in my mind was totally counter-intuitive. After all Kaiser in Sonoma County is the largest medical center in the county. Sutter is here too, but it isn't nearly as big as Kaiser.

Yet, they didn't have enough on hand to vaccine seniors from 65-75 years old in the initial roll out for a significantly longer period.

I hate to depend on them for my booster, even though it wasn't their fault.

I think we lay the pressure on for the boosters, but to who? The Governor?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

15. My son is in the Pfzier booster trial

My son was in the original Pfzier trial and received his vaccinations back in August of last year. He got the real vaccine and was asked to participate in this trial. This is the regular pfzier vaccine. My son thinks that he got the vaccine in that he ran a fever for two or three days and his arm still hurt some. These are slightly more severe compared the side effects he felt for his second shot

This is the regular pfzier vaccine. My son is not supposed to go back for blood work until Feb. which is strange to me.

Last time my son did an antibody test to see if he was in the vaccine group and not the control group. He is thinking about doing this again

[ananda]

23. I'm thinking boosters will be available in the fall.

Hoping September, but maybe October.