Between 1 million and 3 million unvaxxed are going to die, is this correct ?

[moof]

How many of those will be children 12 and under ?

approx 333 million people in america
approx 68% vaxxed with one dose as of today = 226,440,000
approx 333,000,000 - 226,440,000 = 106,560,000 unvaxxed

odds of death as outcome of getting delta in unvaxxed population,
1 in 100 , or depending on underlying conditions, 1 in 30

From what is being reported almost everyone unvaxxed is going to get infected with the covid delta variant.

approx 100,000,000 unvaxxed at 1 to 3 percent fatality rate = one to three million deaths before everyone is either vaxxed or dead.

Also it looks like there approx 50,000,000 children under 12 in america.
How many of them will pay with their lives so that republicans can line their pockets and get more power.
check my math
Is this correct ?
Please say this is incorrect.

[The Magistrate]

1. Unfortunately, Sir, I Expect You Are Correct

There are great swathes of the country where I expect September is going to resemble last January.

[Dream Girl]

2. You need to account for the number of unvaccinated people who will get Covid. Everyone?

All 100 million? I’d guess 60% to be conservative. So it would be more like an additional 600k dead. Again, my assumptions are best case.

[moof]

7. " almost everyone " unvaxxed is going to get infected with the covid delta variant.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210730/war-has-changed-cdc-says-delta-as-contagious-as-chicken-pox

CDC Says Delta as Contagious as Chicken Pox

From https://www.immunize.org/catg.d/p4202.pdf

Because it is so easy to catch chickenpox, almost every adult in the United States has been infected.

Thanks dream girl, still the wish would be that you are too pessimistic.

[Dream Girl]

11. I know they said "almost everyone" but I have to believe that was hybole

[womanofthehills]

16. There is a large percentage of people who have had Covid

And have natural immunity. We have a big problem with Pfizer saying their vaccines only protect for 6 months so many Americans vaccinated in Jan and Feb will not be protected until they get a third shot.

[PufPuf23]

25. I was age 34 and got chicken pox while a grad student at Cal.

It was pretty brutal. Amazing where one can catch chicken pox blisters.

[BigmanPigman]

30. My friend got it just by visiting his friend

and friend told him that unless he had Chicken Pox he better not come inside since his kid had it.. Just by standing in the doorway for 1 minute was enough and 2 weeks to the day he got sick. Since he was at my house so I could take care of him I also got sick exactly 2 weeks later. I got a Gammagobulin (whatever it's called) shot and mine weren't as bad...about 250 on my body...I counted I was so bored. Then about 6 months later my coworker also got it and had no idea where since he didn't know anyone who had it. We were all in our 30s.

If Delta is even close to being that contagious we are in big trouble.

[PufPuf23]

36. Delta is hitting hard in the county where I live.

Thursday's new case report was near the high of the pandemic; Friday was twice that.

Finding myself pessimistic. The comments to the attached are mostly pathetic.

COUNTY RECORDS HIGHEST SINGLE-DAY CASE COUNT AS OFFICIALS WARN OF DELTA SPREAD

https://kymkemp.com/2021/07/30/county-records-highest-single-day-case-count-as-officials-warn-of-delta-spread/

[BigmanPigman]

38. My area is 70% fully vaxxed but the number of new

cases is as high as it was many months ago. We are 2nd after LA County for the state's daily totals. This isn't going to end well.

[Delphinus]

3. I'm kicking

as I know we have some folks who follow this very closely and I hope they chime in.

[Texaswitchy]

4. Yes

It will get bad.

[FBaggins]

5. Nope

Your math is straightforward enough… but your model isn’t close to anything supported by the current evidence

[Tomconroy]

6. I don't think that kind of prediction can be made with

Any certainty. There are too many variable unknowns. Between ,1 and 3 million itself is a pretty big range.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. Agreed!

See my reply to the OP, just below your post.
We're extrapolating & speculating at best.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. A Million Seems Inevitable

3 million is probably too high an estimate.
A few reasons I say that:
1. Of the existing >600,000 there is a high proportion of highly vulnerable people. That highly vulnerable segment needs to be excluded from future numbers, as they've already been victimized by COVID.
2. We had 36+ million cases out of 330+ million people, or around 11%. Even if delta gets 2x the people infected, it's 22% of only the other 165 million. Another 36 million.
3. Deaths per 100,000 cases have been running lower for a while, than some earlier dramatic surges were. Part of that is a lower proportion of highly vulnerable & part is moderately improved therapeutics. So, the percentage of deaths in the population of new cases could be significantly lower. Even if not, it's still roughly the same 600k we've lost now.
4. While delta is more contagious, we're comparing alpha with zero percent vaxxed to delta with 50+% vaxxed. The two events are sufficiently independent that direct comparison is specious. All we have is speculation & extrapolation.
5. Some of these new cases are among vaxxed people are current data appears to show that severe illnessnor death is much less likely, even from the delta variant.
But, given this recent surge, and the reluctance to return to mitigation in many regions, another few hundred thousand deaths seems inevitable.

[mchill]

15. On your item #1

A friend of mine who supervises a COVID unit in SoCal just said today she is beginning to see patients who had COVID last winter in the hospital and they are sicker this time around.

[Crunchy Frog]

19. 36 million confirmed cases.

The real number of cases is estimated to be vastly higher.

I myself know of multiple situations in which whole families got sick, but only one family member bothered getting tested. Tests were very difficult to come by during the initial surge to the extent that in some places you would only get tested if you were hospitalized.

To get a better idea of the true number of infections, they would probably need to do extensive surveys for the presence of antibodies.

[thesquanderer]

35. re: your item #2

re: "We had 36+ million cases out of 330+ million people, or around 11%. Even if delta gets 2x the people infected, it's 22% of only the other 165 million"

We've had about 35 million cases over a period of just 18 months or so. So there is another variable of how long this goes on.

I think there are currently about 85 million unvaccinated adults (I'm not sure where your 165 million figure came from?). If 22% of them get covid in the next 18 months, that's close to 19 million. But if nothing else changed, there could be another 19 million over the subsequent 18 months, and again after that, and so on. IOW, an 18 month period can arguably be 1-to-1 ompared to another 18 month period, but not to an indefinitely longer or infinite period.

Also, even the initial 18 month period had a very different set of variables. On one hand, nobody was vaccinated, which made that 18 month period more dangerous. But OTOH, those 18 months also included an initial period with relatively few source vectors, and before long, shut downs of places of public gatherings, and also probably relatively high compliance of social distancing and hand washing. With all public spaces basically open, and with the unvaccinated likely also not to pay much attention to social distancing and frequent hand washing, while most of us are safer than we were in that first 18 month period, the unvaccinated may be LESS safe now than they were in those 18 months, in part *because* they are now allowed to go to restaurants, movie theaters, etc. A straight extrapolation of numbers doesn't allow for all these variables. They may have higher risk of getting covid now than they ever did before.

[mackdaddy]

10. I think your odds of dying are not currently correct.

Those death odds are closer to what your chance of dying if you are serious enough to go to a hospital.

The medical system has gotten much much better at keeping people alive through hospital treatment. Also the unvaccinated population is overall much younger on average now as many of we older folks are vaccinated and the chances of dying from Covid go up substantially with age.

A lot of people will die needlessly because they listen to Republican propaganda, but I think your numbers are high.

Just my observations from reading seemingly reputable news sources. YMMV.

[Tomconroy]

12. Only about 500 children have died of covid so far.

At present there isn't evidence that Delta is more deadly for children.

[Johonny]

13. The virus is not as severe in children, and everyone's odds are not equal

While they can die, and some will, the odds of dying basically double every seven years of age. A 70 year old is much more likely to die than a 7 year old. This is why they've not rushed the covid vaccine to under 12.

[Crunchy Frog]

14. I think the fatality rate for children is still extremely low, even with Delta.

And same with younger people overall.

I also expect that people will change their behavior as the situation gets more critical. There is already an uptick in people getting vaccinated, and we're likely to see a return to masking and avoiding gatherings as things heat up.

For all the insanity we're seeing in this country, I still believe that most Americans don't actually want themselves or their loved ones to die or to end up in ICU.

Every "I shoulda gotten the damn vaccine" story is impacting some people, and I expect that effect will amplify over time.

We will not see millions of deaths. If children start dropping like flies, they'll open vaccines to them pretty damned quickly, as well as the obvious stuff like closing schools and daycares.

[Tomconroy]

17. And then there is India where Delta was raging and now it isn't.

No one knows why.

[róisín_dubh]

34. Same here in the UK

Vaccines certainly helped, but officials are puzzling over why cases have begun to sharply decline over the last 10 days.

[hlthe2b]

18. Data not generally available on preexisting immunity levels from prior infection among unvaccinated

Without that, you would have an overestimate of those fully vulnerable to infection and a severe outcome leading to death among the unvaccinated. That data would need to be fairly recent to avoid an overestimate of continued immunity as well as to account for that specific to delta variant.

[roamer65]

20. Death toll in India true is estimated is to be around 3 to 4 million.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/20/1018438334/indias-pandemic-death-toll-estimated-at-about-4-million-10-times-the-official-co

[samplegirl]

21. My crazy neighbor told me the numbers

are inflated. And that Biden has the Mexican
Border wide open.
I can’t stand my neighbors. The ignorance!

[paleotn]

22. Many of the variables can't be accurately predicted at this point...

much less the end product of how many Covid deaths over an extended period of time. A big part of my job is making predictions. Epidemiology is well outside my lane, but I do understand the basic modeling concepts and I wouldn't touch this one with a thousand foot poll. Way too many unknowns (both known and unknown), much less the interplay of all those variables I can't predict with any accuracy.

If pressed I'd say it can't be predicted right now with anything even remotely resembling accuracy, but it feels like it's going to a whole hell of a lot. How many is a whole hell of a lot? A shit load. It may be brutal in areas with low vaccination rates. Beyond that, I don't have a clue.

[Fiendish Thingy]

23. Children have a lower fatality rate than adults, as do younger adults vs. Older adults

And there are several million who have had their first shot and are waiting to get their second.

It’s not inconceivable that the US could double the number of deaths before this is over to 1.2 million or so total.

[Blue Owl]

24. Not enough to worry Republicans

[ancianita]

26. Projections for the country.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

[tclambert]

27. Yes, but how many will be rich? How many will be famous?

The privileged will get better care when sick, and many will get vaxed while simultaneously telling working class people to not bother.

Republicans won't care if regular people die. They just care about Important People, you know, the bribe-paying class.

[Jon King]

28. 297 kids have died in all according to American Assoc. of Pediatricians....

If another 100000 Americans in total die of the virus in the US, I would be a bit surprised. Between 30000-60000 should be the final range. The death rate will start to drop fast in 4-6 weeks.

Of the kids who have died, many were early on, almost all on feeding tubes or with other severe health conditions. As of April 19th, the total was 297 children.

[hardluck]

29. Per CDC

340 individuals under the age 18 died of COVID. I doubt you’re going to see the numbers that you seem to anticipate.

[Maggiemayhem]

31. The info mutates as fast as the virus.

[Ace Rothstein]

32. Doubt it is anywhere close to that.

[muriel_volestrangler]

33. Not as bad as that for a number of reasons

Some have already pointed out some - the most vulnerable suffered badly in the first wave, so the existing "1 in 100" overall figure probably won't be so bad in the future, even for the unvaccinated.

Others in high-risk groups have also had the vaccine at a higher rate, so the protective effect of the vaccine has been concentrated where it's needed most.

Knowledge of effective treatment is better now, so that saves lives too.

Deaths among children are very rare, so their numbers really shouldn't be treated as just part of the total population.

The "1 in 100" figure basically came from symptomatic cases; it's now apparent there have been a lot of asymptomatic cases, so if you're modelling it as "everyone unvaccinated will get it", that might be "1 in 200".

Plus, if things start to look bad, people will get the vaccine, whatever they say now. They may find some bullshit reason to pretend their choice not to earlier had been "right", but imminent death concentrates the mind wonderfully.

[Tarc]

39. Not even remotely how pandemic projections work