Insurrectionist movement in U.S. is larger and more dangerous than expected, research finds

[reACTIONary]

Last edited Sat Aug 14, 2021, 01:58 PM - Edit history (2)

New analysis from Prof. Robert Pape and the Chicago Project on Security and Threats suggests that many Americans continue to hold the insurrectionist sentiments that led to the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. In NORC surveys, millions of Americans indicate that they hold insurrectionist sentiments

https://news.uchicago.edu/story/insurrectionist-movement-us-larger-and-more-dangerous-expected-research-finds

Links to further information:

https://cpost.uchicago.edu/research/domestic_extremism/why_we_cannot_afford_to_ignore_the_american_insurrectionist_movement/

https://d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/CPOST-NORC_UnderstandingInsurrectionSurvey_JUN2021_Topline.pdf

Tip of the hat to andym!

[ansible]

1. Civil war seems to be inevitable at this point now

Does anyone still believe otherwise?

[BlueTsunami2018]

3. Yes. I believe otherwise.

How would a civil war go? What are the sides? We all live mixed together, do you really think neighbors would be killing each other? And what about the actual military? They would just stand by as people gather illegitimate armies? Supply lines and logistics are a real concern, who would fund this?

Nah, there will be no civil war. That’s a right wing pipe dream.

[ansible]

4. That's exactly what happened in Yugoslavia in the 90s

Neighbors who had been living peacefully suddenly slaughtering each other. The country just seems too hopelessly divided at this point.

[reACTIONary]

8. Um, nope. Yugoslavia was an...

...artificial entity hobbled together from disparate, antagonistic ethnic groups and held together by an authoritarian communist regime. When the regime crumbled, and the ideology collapsed, they went after each other.

That isn't going to happen here.

[ansible]

9. I hope you're right

Don't get me wrong, I think a civil war would be nightmarish but I don't feel too optimistic these days. And the US's ethnic divisions worry me greatly, I don't remember the US being so racially divided as today.

[reACTIONary]

11. I'm hoping also. Thanks for your thoughts. nt

[BlueTsunami2018]

13. I don't think it's all that racially divided.

There are just as many white Americans who will stand with minorities as there are racists. I know which side I’d be on and it isn’t the Nazi side.

[ansible]

15. It shouldn't even be this bad, it wasn't in the 90s when I was a kid

It feels like we went backwards since then, the racism among younger zoomers shocks me too. I think the internet made things worse.

[calimary]

21. I hope you're right. But with the hellish divisiveness

that we’re all tripping over now, it’s almost becoming like a blood feud. Hatfields and McCoys. I can’t help but fear that this won’t end well. And the anger and resentment won’t subside even then.

I hope we’re not finished as a nation. But I’ve gotta be honest. At this point, with the ferocious reinforcement the other side is constantly getting from wrong-wing networks and hoards of opportunistic infections and amen choruses on the internet, I’m not optimistic.

Not a bit optimistic.

[PortTack]

10. Agree..isolated incidents of violence..but civil war...no

[carpetbagger]

19. Rwanda.

Intertwined ethnic groups that were more moieties than discrete ethnicities, decades of suppressed rage stoked by media. I could totally see mass violence here if, say, Trump died in a plane crash.

[reACTIONary]

5. Nope. Not a chance. Ain't going to happen. nt

[Wingus Dingus]

25. Part of me hopes that the antagonism is mostly just a construct on the internet and

social media. It's hard for me to believe that people in my community and neighborhood would ever be anything but peaceful and go about their own business. But I still see trucks driving around with Trump flags, because some of these people are mental toddlers who can't give up their Orange Daddy longings, and I realize there's probably even more of them that I don't see, who similarly aren't dealing with a full deck.

[dhol82]

2. Hell, the FBI wanted to warn about this twenty years ago.

From what I remember, conservatives were horrified by that and suppressed the findings.

[Haggard Celine]

6. You're right, I remember that too.

Domestic terrorism has been a problem in America for a long time. I think that's why they keep us fighting wars all the time -- it keeps us from fighting each other so much. They'll have to find us another boogeyman. Afghanistan is over, and nobody paid much attention to it, anyway. It's a new era, time for a new enemy.

[Oneironaut]

7. I'm worried about lone wolf attacks.

Imo, there most likely won’t be an organized enemy force threatening the US from within, but rather, lone wolves from sites like TheDonald or 4chan doing mass shootings. This is Trump’s legacy.

[brush]

12. Lone wolves are committing mass shootings all the time, unfortunately, already. It won't...

take much for terrorist/militia groups to take up that tactic. They'll also probably probe into doing guerilla attacks on government installations, financial ones to get funds and mass gathering places like terrorist do in Europe. Our reglarlly scheduled sports events could be prime targets.

But they might be successful at one-offs as IMO most are under surveillance since so many stupidly stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 then foolishly posted self-congratulatory photos and videos of their criminal exploits online. Our intel agencies I'm sure are monitoring them and all their contacts who they able to get information on too from the online bragging.

If they want a civil war, they'll be put down before it gets anywhere close to that as there's no geographical separation like back in the day. They're in every state and so are the rest of us, and Nat'l Guard, police, state troopers and even military bases if it comes to it.

They should be careful for what they wish for.

[Hoyt]

14. A cultural war has been going on for some time. There will be some violence,

but not something that won’t be handled, at least for foreseeable future.

Key is to keep folks in office who seem to agree with you on important issues.

[czarjak]

16. Who knew?

[intheflow]

17. Larger and more dangerous than expected - by who?!

I saw this shit rising back in the '90s.

[PatrickforB]

18. It would be good to see the actual study, as opposed to an article that used the

term 'gold standard' to talk about the quality of the survey, which was nationally representative and had a 1.3% margin of error.

Problem is, we don't know anything else, and when I clicked on the link in the linked article here, it took me to the NORC main page but I could not find the specific survey.

Let me try again...So, still couldn't find the actual study. However, we have over 10 million Americans who have insurrectionist sentiments. To put this in perspective, the population here is around 328 million people in 2021. Basically 3% of the population.

That's bad, but probably not enough to foment an actual civil war.

But yeah, we need to root it out top down - Hawley, Cruz, Gosar, Greene and the rest of the rotten apples need to GO.

[reACTIONary]

23. You are right, and I had the same difficulties...

... Overcome by events... See response below.

[andym]

24. Links to the study and the author's interpretation

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15737657

[Traildogbob]

20. This is why

I was getting a bit pissed at MSM squawking about we need troops back in Afghanistan to protect us from another 9/11 from Taliban and ISIS and need to help them maintain a government. Have they fucking looked out the window? Our government is not currently a shinning example. The country is on fire, Covid is ravaging, our democracy and government is teetering on the brink, Christian Taliban and Vanilla ISIS are roaming the streets in trucks with Emeny Cult Flags and and arsenal Guns and bombs, parents are threatening to kill other parents over masks, trump and Fox are openly inciting much more deadly attacks. I can go on. We got serious problems here, Afghanistan never has and never will be defeated. We at least have a chance to stop And defeat Trump Taliban here. Those soldiers are need to win this war going on here.

[andym]

22. Direct links to Prof Pape's Blog and Survey Data

https://cpost.uchicago.edu/research/domestic_extremism/why_we_cannot_afford_to_ignore_the_american_insurrectionist_movement/


...
"One might have expected fires to fade, the FBI arrests to have a chilling impact on violence to support Trump, or the de-platforming of Trump himself from Facebook and Twitter to lower the temperature. But our most recent nationally representative survey of 1,070 American adults fielded by the NORC at the University of Chicago in June, paints a different, if not alarming, picture. We found, most strikingly, that nine percent of Americans—believe the “Use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency. More than a fourth of adults agree, in varying degrees, that, “The 2020 election was stolen, and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.”

We also learned that 8.1 percent — that equates to 21 million American adults — share both these radical beliefs. From a statistical point of view, this number is extrapolated from a range between 6% (15 million) to 11% (28 million), where we have 95% confidence that the true number falls within.

There is remarkable consistency in the responses. Specifically, of the roughly one tenth of those who think force is justified to restore Trump, 90% also see Biden as illegitimate, and 68% also think force may be needed to preserve America’s traditional way of life.


From the Aug. 6, 2021 CPOST Survey Report, "Deep, Destructive, and Disturbing: What We Know About Today's American Insurrectionist Movement:"
Today’s 21 million adamant supporters of insurrection also have the dangerous potential for violent mobilization. Our survey also asked pointed questions about membership and support for militia groups, such as the Oath Keepers, or extremist groups, such as the Proud boys, to which approximately, one million of the 21 million insurrectionists are themselves or personally know a member of a militia or extremist group. Six million showed support for militias and extremist groups. At least seven million of this number own a gun, and three million have prior US military service...."'
more at the link above.

Link to the study:
https://d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/CPOST-NORC_UnderstandingInsurrectionSurvey_JUN2021_Topline.pdf