*****BREAKING***** 57% of California voters plan to vote against Republican led recall

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[Elessar Zappa]

1. Excellent news.

Send in those ballots, California Dems!

[Polly Hennessey]

16. Sent mine in with as big NO.

[JohnSJ]

2. Not sure how reliable that pollster is, but I sure hope so

[ColinC]

5. I think they have a strong democratic bias. Just have to throw them in the average

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. 11% of the vote is in

Returned Ballots So Far

58% Democrats
22% Indys
21% Reps.

Based on polling 80-85% of Democrats, 40% of Indys, and 10% of Republicans are voting against the recall. If they stopped counting today No is between 58-60%.

[JohnSJ]

11. Thanks

[ailsagirl]

48. I thought they didn't start counting until the polls are closed (?)

[More_Cowbell]

50. They scan and open the return envelopes, count the ballot on Election Day

So they know how many Democrats and Republicans have returned ballots.

[ailsagirl]

54. I'm glad-- but honestly, I thought we'd be WAY ahead

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. They don't count the votes until the day of the election

However they update the number of ballots returned by registration every day. I took those numbers and matched them to polls.

[ailsagirl]

53. Glad you did!

[Wounded Bear]

3. Hopeful news, let's hope it comes out that way...nt

[roamer65]

4. CA is a blue state.

Now is the time for a ballot prop to change the recall process.

[ace3csusm]

40. 100% Agree

This cost us CA residents millions for what...and the whole idea that 50.1% is needed stay...change this NOW...

[Jim__]

6. Great news! Let's hope it works out that way.

[Demovictory9]

7. Got my ballot on my table

#!$@ larry elder

[Vinca]

9. I sure hope so. As Chris Hayes has been pointing out recently, the whole thing makes no

sense if 49% could vote to not recall the governor which would trigger his ouster and the highest point getter of the losers running against him to get the job. They might have a lousy 15% of the vote. 49% loses, 15% wins. What a stupid, stupid provision in the California constitution.

[Retired Engineer Bob]

14. I've thought the same thing -n/t

[RockRaven]

10. Get those ballots in, people, now!!!

PLEASE.

[NewsCenter28]

13. Best news I've heard ALL month! Awesome K and R!

Keep GOTV, CA! I love ya!

[Cha]

12. I should hope so! Rt TY

[Retired Engineer Bob]

15. If Gavin manages to stay, I hear calls for an audit in 3, 2, 1...n/t

[Grokenstein]

17. Every one of us in CA must do our part and vote.

We've been through this nonsense before, and we know what's at stake this time.

[BigmanPigman]

21. I've been wearing my "VOTE" N95 mask.

[NoMoreRepugs]

18. If this goes bad and some RePutinican AssHat becomes Governor and Sen Feinstein should need to

be replaced, well, u can do the math.

[Auggie]

19. Hope "plan" equates to "doing"

[chowder66]

20. If you are mailing your ballot in, like I did, do it asap.

I sent my on August 17th and have been watching for an update from ballotrax but nothing as of yet.

[budkin]

22. Good. Otherwise we'll end up losing the Senate.

[nycbos]

44. How

[budkin]

55. Diane Feinstein is ancient

Diane Feinstein is ancient And the governor would get to choose a replacement for her

[aggiesal]

23. I don't trust polls except at the ballot box ...

I've already turned in my "NO" ballot at the ROV in SD.

Get out and vote. The earlier the better.

[cally]

24. Let's hope they turn in the ballots!

[BlueCheeseAgain]

25. Change is a pretty pro-Dem outfit, right?

Nonetheless, early returns show Dems returning ballots at a fast clip.

[Moebym]

26. Come on, California.

If you recall your governor and replace him with that bozo, I will not visit your state again until you correct your error.

[California Kid]

27. Fantastic news

[kimbutgar]

28. I don't want anyone to be complacent vote like it's 57% for the recall

These polls make people feel like it’s ok if I don’t vote Newsom can’t be recalled. NO

Vote no and drop off your ballot. I don’t trust the USPS under Dejoy it comes to ballots. I am waiting for our son to come home and we’ll drive down to the department of elections and drop off our ballots for our family.

[bucolic_frolic]

29. Yes, if

you believe those polled will vote, don't lie to pollsters, and are a representative sample of what will actually occur on recall election day, and if you believe this poll result doesn't motivate those losing and diminish the resolve of those winning in the poll.

So I say all those things interplay and 7% has historically been within the margin of the GOP making most elections very close, althought don't extend any insight here for any experience monitoring or seeing results from California elections.

[IronLionZion]

30. Change Research leans way left according to 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. It has a mean reverted bias of D 2 9.

Those polls you cited are considerably older and don't capture Newsom's ads and the CA Denocratic machine turning out its voters

[IronLionZion]

35. I hope you're right

Dems don't always turn out for these things as much as the other side

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Everybody gets a ballot in the mail along with a self addressed stamped envelope to return it in.

[Tommy Carcetti]

32. Is it a simple majority or 2/3rds to trigger recall?

Just curious.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Simple majority.

[NullTuples]

39. Simple majority - which is why Newsom could get 49.9% and and GOP could get 3% & become governor.

It's a broken system.

It's been in place for a hundred years and here's the best part: nobody knows how, precisely, it became law. Oh, they know the general story about "progressives" but not who submitted those specific details of the mechanism, or why.

Time to modernize it.

[bluestarone]

33. Please California

WE NEED YOU!!!! DO NOT let the rethugs get away with anything here!!

[UTUSN]

34. K&R for, from your lips to Zeus's ear!

[NullTuples]

38. Two actual "NO" votes from our home.

Ballot envelopes are on the entranceway table, for whichever of us ventures out masked & keeping our distance into the world first.

[SpankMe]

41. Never trust polls with wording like that

Polls have been very inaccurate over the last couple of national and local elections.

Plus, I'd have hoped for numbers closer to 68% No, 28% Yes and 4% undecided. I can't believe that anyone outside of the bottom-feeding Republican contingent would even consider a recall.

[LiberalFighter]

42. Everyone in CA need to vote No. And encourage others to do same.

[nycbos]

43. Take absolutely nothing for granted.

[DSandra]

45. It is little more than a power grab by the exiled California Republican Party, being fueled...

By disgruntled business owners who care more about themselves than about spreading COVID. Governors should not be punished for making hard, brave choices when there are no possible choices that don’t hurt anyone.

[ailsagirl]

47. Exactly!! nt

[ailsagirl]

46. I fervently hope so

Frankly, I'm surprised that 42% support it... WTH??

[mountain grammy]

49. I hope they vote.. oh please vote!

42% are batshit crazy and they must be outvoted!

[The Unmitigated Gall]

51. Just mailed mine.

FU Larry, FU Caitlyn.

That is all.

[summer_in_TX]

56. Gotta say, I'm still nervous.

Polling has had some big fails lately.

Keep that full court press, California Dems! I'm rooting for you!

[Sympthsical]

57. "Plan to vote" Hoo boy. Wouldn't trust this one.

That's one of those questions in statistics that can give an unreliable result due to "social acceptance" bias.

People will say they voted when they didn't. They'll say they will when they have no intention.

We saw a lot of this in Trump polling. People just didn't want to admit they were voting for the guy.

The methodology is also a self-selected sample via social media ads funneled through survey monkey, which is its own whole set of statistical bias problems.

I'm (very) cautiously optimistic about the recall lately. Already sent in our "no" votes here. But, I am nowhere near comfortable. Glancing at this outlier and how they came to these numbers doesn't make me feel any better.

Think they wanted some headlines.