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ColinC

(8,340 posts) Fri Aug 27, 2021, 02:43 PM Aug 2021

538 averages for CA recall (Keep +4)

Don't pop out the champagne yet, but it looks like at least the polling is getting dramatically better. There is now only one poll in the latest averages that is favoring removal.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/?cid=rrpromo

Californians: If you haven't already sent back your ballot, please do. And if you plan to vote in person, please do it as soon as possible. Some folks I know already misplaced their ballots because they procrastinated.

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538 averages for CA recall (Keep +4) (Original Post) ColinC Aug 2021 OP

Hillary Clinton was heavily favored to win in 2016, so I put little stock in polls . . . Journeyman Aug 2021 #1

I put little stock in a +4 lead (which hillary had and nearly attained on election day) ColinC Aug 2021 #2

Journeyman

(15,042 posts)

1. Hillary Clinton was heavily favored to win in 2016, so I put little stock in polls . . .

Reply to ColinC (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 02:51 PM

Aug 2021

ColinC

(8,340 posts)

2. I put little stock in a +4 lead (which hillary had and nearly attained on election day)

Reply to Journeyman (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 03:11 PM

Aug 2021

But with COVID, GOTV is heavily still favored with the GOP. So without a strong GOTV effort, we need a much larger lead than 4

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