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Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:31 PM Aug 2021

Don't believe the bullshit that people who are vaccinated aren't getting really sick

Because they are. And if you are unlucky, you are sick in a a highly infected state and there are no beds. Be sick enough to be on a ventilator and you get a bed, for now.

In my county, 8% percent of the hospitalizations are vaccinated people. But 100% are still human beings who are getting sick alone andvare scared and may be dying.. I don't wish that in anybody.

126 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Don't believe the bullshit that people who are vaccinated aren't getting really sick (Original Post) Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 OP
That's incredibly high compared to everywhere else. Phoenix61 Aug 2021 #1
Thank you! It's 8% of hospitalizations are vaccinated. nt Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #4
Not really. LisaL Aug 2021 #12
The original OP had it at 8% of deaths were vaccinated. Phoenix61 Aug 2021 #14
Yes I corrected Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #120
No one has ever said that the vaccinated aren't at risk of dying NickB79 Aug 2021 #2
The chances are quite small ... IF KentuckyWoman Aug 2021 #3
Of course. But if you Google it, it is bullshit because it says Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #7
0.003% risk of hospitalization or dying. KentuckyWoman Aug 2021 #11
Ya, I think it's in red rural areas where the people who Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #18
That is untrue...people were warned and if stupid governors with political ambitions lie then Demsrule86 Aug 2021 #57
I'm sure you could find something hidden & obscure Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #66
I only just started wearing a mask again...and I have been fine. The stores are insisting upon it Demsrule86 Aug 2021 #72
Sorry, I know I am over the top with this. Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #75
This message was self-deleted by its author Celerity Aug 2021 #44
link for that figure please Celerity Aug 2021 #45
Here's the link. Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #89
Two different things. The poster I replied to overstated the protection Celerity Aug 2021 #94
Since there is constant evolution and poor data overall, I think every conclusion should Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #98
Yes, still in it. All metrics (Antibodies,T helper, T killer, and B cells) still ultra high Celerity Aug 2021 #105
No. It is not the risk of hospitalization or dying. Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #92
Hmmm. KentuckyWoman Aug 2021 #116
It's not local v. national Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #118
Rather, that is Not 100% true. However, it is mostly true. DemocraticPatriot Aug 2021 #31
Can I steal that line??? "I don't play the vaccinated covid lottery" Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #90
Sure lol nt DemocraticPatriot Aug 2021 #117
We'll, it is 92% true, But the 8% of hospitalized vaccinated people aren't the only ones infected Fiendish Thingy Aug 2021 #32
Thank you for this rational post. I refuse to be hysterical about this. I have done everything Demsrule86 Aug 2021 #58
It is often true. My sister lives in Georgia. There are many cases. Her grandson brought it Demsrule86 Aug 2021 #56
In red Texas you can't even get in a hospital unless you Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #70
That is sad...the only folks I know who have died were those who refused to get vaccinated... Demsrule86 Aug 2021 #73
Please don't keep believing it is only trumpeters/unvaccinated who are Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #74
Please stop misusing statistics. Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #91
Thank you GusBob Aug 2021 #5
I know! It's like instead of listening to a clarion cry Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #9
I think the main problem with breakthrough wnylib Aug 2021 #36
The other problem is that, by and large, people who are vaccinated believe that whatever they have - Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #95
I read the same information, trying to figure out infectious period since both Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #101
The person managing contact tracing where I work - Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #104
Is that requirement or lack thereof for a vaccinated Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #122
CDC guidance Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #123
So what it really boils down to is how, if you contracted it during your Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #124
Unfortunately, people who have been vaccinated are really reluctant Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #125
That's amazing. But, even if we are midpoint on intelligence curve, there are 49% lower:) Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #126
I think it's dangerous to push this thinking. Treefrog Aug 2021 #65
Yes it is a dilemma... On one hand we have to get more people Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #68
CDC study of Los Angeles data showed that you're 29 times more likely to wind up Hugh_Lebowski Aug 2021 #6
Vaxxed and Unvaxxed are taking in the same amount of viral load Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #21
Confident in the vaccine some vaccinated unmasked and went among pwb Aug 2021 #8
As was recently encouraged by the CDC. Crunchy Frog Aug 2021 #10
Bingo! What's really ironic is that their tendency to Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #25
That is EXACTLY what is happening. Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #15
I do indeed, and sincerely, wish that karma kicks the willfully unvaxxed in the ass Tarc Aug 2021 #13
I am. Like that doc in Alabama said, it's the most miserable Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #16
Check this out, if you're into that. Crunchy Frog Aug 2021 #59
Thanks. I needed another rabbit hole to go down LOL Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #87
After reading this entire post, I must ask Ferrets are Cool Aug 2021 #17
Perhaps it's a warning... If you are vaccinated DO NOT Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #19
Well, it wasn't snark and if you had stated that in your first post Ferrets are Cool Aug 2021 #20
Whatever. Reread just for you... And said the same thing. Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #22
I agree with you, it took me reading down the thread to figure out OnDoutside Aug 2021 #38
Wow didn't know there was thread police now Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #64
Well, it wouldn't hurt if you want a positive response, otherwise have at it. OnDoutside Aug 2021 #69
Good advise. My husband reminds me a lot that Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #88
And don't go around unvaccinated people AT ALL, DemocraticPatriot Aug 2021 #33
I still don't understand the point of the thread. CrackityJones75 Aug 2021 #23
No? Well, surely there are other threads to go to where Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #27
I mean I guess. CrackityJones75 Aug 2021 #34
Those of us who have been urging caution get tackled here, a lot, by people pushing the idea Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #96
I think caution is a good idea. CrackityJones75 Aug 2021 #97
I don't put my faith in people - I put my faith in science. Ms. Toad Aug 2021 #100
But how many people on DU today are saying that? CrackityJones75 Aug 2021 #111
Gosh I hope I'm not like you describe there. Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #109
I don't think anyone does anything on purpose really. CrackityJones75 Aug 2021 #110
Could not have stated it better!!! And I often Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #121
Here's where people pretend iemanja Aug 2021 #85
But I thought the CDC said that vaccinated people could safely take off their masks! liberal_mama Aug 2021 #24
You know, if we give them a break for then, what about now??? Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #26
+1000 hamsterjill Aug 2021 #28
This is a horrific situation. Almost 200,000 cases today and 1800 deaths. I don't know how they will liberal_mama Aug 2021 #29
We are completely fucked. CrackityJones75 Aug 2021 #35
Bear in mind there is added danger being in a heavily red county, OnDoutside Aug 2021 #39
Well, Provincetown, MA is about as blue as you can get. Treefrog Aug 2021 #99
That's really surprising, I wonder what the dynamic was there ? What is OnDoutside Aug 2021 #106
Much of the US has been back in school for a while obamanut2012 Aug 2021 #71
+1 Can't believe the director hasn't been fired leftstreet Aug 2021 #67
Critical and lethal cases ARE rare with any vaxed, I'll trust the world worse data uponit7771 Aug 2021 #112
One of my law partners and his wife had a breakthrough infection LetMyPeopleVote Aug 2021 #30
I went to a family funeral two weeks ago. My Dad's cousin died - of Covid. Rhiannon12866 Aug 2021 #37
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2021 #41
Sorry For Your Loss Jim G. Aug 2021 #42
I did wonder if that was it, I actually checked just to see... Rhiannon12866 Aug 2021 #43
This Is Certainly Not How I Planned My Retirement Jim G. Aug 2021 #46
None of ever imagined that this would go on for so long Rhiannon12866 Aug 2021 #49
Sorry for your loss, Rhiannon. brer cat Aug 2021 #48
I missed the actual message, but I got the reference Rhiannon12866 Aug 2021 #50
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2021 #51
But I'm not a stranger Rhiannon12866 Aug 2021 #52
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2021 #53
I'm Rhiannon Rhiannon12866 Aug 2021 #54
Yup uppityperson Aug 2021 #61
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2021 #63
I'm so sorry about your cousin. greatauntoftriplets Aug 2021 #60
I don't believe the breakthrough infections are as rare as they claim helpisontheway Aug 2021 #40
No one picking up the stats Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #79
I would bet TheFarseer Aug 2021 #47
That is the whole point... I am challenging that they are Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #81
Most breakthrough cases are mild. Elessar Zappa Aug 2021 #55
Where'd you get that? It's like very few in the big scheme Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #77
World wide data, critical and lethal vax cases are rare even with Delta uponit7771 Aug 2021 #113
Misses the point but thanks Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #119
Those most vulnerable to COVID who are vaccinated can still die of covid ColinC Aug 2021 #62
No one should be saying the unvaccinated never get seriously ill with Covid dsc Aug 2021 #76
Yup! Not helping some people but 100% we HAVE to vaccinate l Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #78
Yep uponit7771 Aug 2021 #114
I've never once read that vaccinated people are not getting sick. GulfCoast66 Aug 2021 #80
Oops. Exact opposite Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #82
Perhaps I made my point poorly. Because miscommunication is on the communicator. GulfCoast66 Aug 2021 #84
As per protection, think there's definitely a distinction between Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #86
*****BINGO!!!!!!******* uponit7771 Aug 2021 #115
Well said, Laura! kentuck Aug 2021 #83
Latest CDC data show vaccination effective but breakthrough cases at a non-trivial rate andym Aug 2021 #93
" Hey, LFR! Why are you still wearing a mask and Social Distancing?" Lady Freedom Returns Aug 2021 #102
I think that really plays a behind-the-scenes factor. We know this couple Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #107
Locally in Sarasota Memorial Hospital Report...on FB Sancho Aug 2021 #103
that's very interesting. Thanks for posting. Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2021 #108

LisaL

(45,037 posts)
12. Not really.
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:01 PM
Aug 2021

In July and August, number of vaccinated people who end up infected/hospitalized has gone up.

Phoenix61

(17,090 posts)
14. The original OP had it at 8% of deaths were vaccinated.
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:03 PM
Aug 2021

8% of hospitalized are vaccinated is in range.

NickB79

(19,355 posts)
2. No one has ever said that the vaccinated aren't at risk of dying
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:34 PM
Aug 2021

They ARE at a substantially lower risk of dying, as your own numbers prove.

You're making a straw man argument.

KentuckyWoman

(6,709 posts)
3. The chances are quite small ... IF
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:41 PM
Aug 2021

if you are fully vaxxed, have a generally healthy body that can fight off a viral load before it gets the best of you. If you use all the other tools like masks, good ventilation, hand washing and keep them out of your face etc to limit how much virus to get from a carrier.

If you do all the things. Use all the tools, your risk is about 0.003%. However, if you are higher risk due to other illnesses, or let your guard down with the other protocols, or close to that 7-8 month window, then your risk factor goes up.

I have a friend who recently died from a breakthrough infection. She had some other issues, age, heart failure etc. They think grandson passed it to her at an outdoor family picnic when he napped in her lap, no masks.

Vaccines are absolutely the best tool we have but they aren't 100% for anyone, especially higher risk people or behaviors. Use all the tools.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
7. Of course. But if you Google it, it is bullshit because it says
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:52 PM
Aug 2021

vaccinated people will have light or asymptomatic cases. That is 100% not true.

KentuckyWoman

(6,709 posts)
11. 0.003% risk of hospitalization or dying.
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:01 PM
Aug 2021

8% of the deaths in your area might be breakthrough, but that doesn't mean 8% of the vaxxed citizens are dying.

In my area, of all the tests performed coming back positive, about 4% are vaxxed. Of those individuals, well over 90% fight it off without need of medical attention, another test in about 5-7 days tends to come back negative. Of the ones who do need medical attention, only about 3% of that bunch end up in ICU.

Following my area compared to the national stats we tend to be very close to the averages.

I am not at all downplaying the risks. They are real, especially if you already have other issues going on. We have to use ALL the tools, ALL the time. This is not over yet.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
18. Ya, I think it's in red rural areas where the people who
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:10 PM
Aug 2021

thought they were safe, getting a vaccine, weren't adequately warned that they should not be around unvaccinated ( the many) people. No one can track that.

Demsrule86

(69,100 posts)
57. That is untrue...people were warned and if stupid governors with political ambitions lie then
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 06:11 AM
Aug 2021

it is up to the people that live there to figure it out...the information is out there.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
66. I'm sure you could find something hidden & obscure
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:17 PM
Aug 2021

I'm talking about warnings that actually get through to people. Effectively reaching critical mass awareness. And wearing a mask when you're vaccinated was NOT a major warning and it still isn't to the degree it needs to be

Demsrule86

(69,100 posts)
72. I only just started wearing a mask again...and I have been fine. The stores are insisting upon it
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 05:52 PM
Aug 2021

where I live in Ohio. Sorry...people have a brain and need to find information...there is plenty of info out there.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
75. Sorry, I know I am over the top with this.
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 11:25 PM
Aug 2021

My dad who wasn't sick got covid and died in CT early on cuz fucking trump didn't warn anyone.

I probably need to take a break. I just don't want ANYONE to go through it. I don't care if they're Democrat or Republican, masker non masker.

Response to KentuckyWoman (Reply #11)

Celerity

(44,542 posts)
45. link for that figure please
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:50 AM
Aug 2021
0.003% risk of hospitalization or dying


you are claiming that only 3 out of every 100,000 vaxxed people end up in the hospital (obviously far less out of those who were simply hospitalised would die)

You figure translates out to only 5,100 breakthrough hospitalisations out of 170 million fully vaxxed people, which is very low


here are some figures from states that show your numbers to be well off

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html

HOSPITALIZATION RATE PER 100,000

(fully vaccinated versus unvaxxed)

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
89. Here's the link.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 01:38 PM
Aug 2021
https://covidwaco.com/daily/. They aren't big on footnotes describing methodology so you have to assume. Crazy.

Is the hospitalization rate the same thing as hospitalizations per 100k?

They are listing hospitalization rate of 30.9%

But what I was referring to in the OP was the percentage of people who are hospitalized who are vaccinated. On their daily snapshot it said 92% were unvaccinated. So 8% were vaccinated. Unless they meant 92% of everyone in the whole hospital... Like I said no footnotes.

Celerity

(44,542 posts)
94. Two different things. The poster I replied to overstated the protection
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 01:56 PM
Aug 2021

percentage against hospitalisation afforded by being fully vaccinated. They claimed only 3 per 100,000 of fully vaccinated people end up being hospitalised, when the rates are quite higher in reality (although still much lower than for unvaxxed people).

The percentage of current hospitalised cases who are fully vaxxed versus the percentage of current cases who are unvaccinated is an entirely different metric, although obviously there is some correlation (ie. the lower the overall protection against hospitalisation for the fully vaxxed, then the higher the percentage for fully vaxxed hospitalised cases will likely become on an overall basis).

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
98. Since there is constant evolution and poor data overall, I think every conclusion should
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:21 PM
Aug 2021

be notated with a *probably higher or *probably lower" footnote. Although can't really think of an occasion to use the latter Oh wait - overall testing #s are probably lower IF you equate to individual people.

Are you still in the booster study? How's that going?

Celerity

(44,542 posts)
105. Yes, still in it. All metrics (Antibodies,T helper, T killer, and B cells) still ultra high
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 03:47 PM
Aug 2021

Same for wifey.

And it wasn't a booster. It was our first two jabs. 2nd jab was end of April, both were 100mcg of mRNA-1273.351 Moderna variant-tweaked vax.

We both had origin strain, asymptomatic COVID back in April/May 2020.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
92. No. It is not the risk of hospitalization or dying.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 01:50 PM
Aug 2021

It is a snapshot in time, taken in the "good old days" when delta was not rampant and people were wearing masks. It is NOT a measure of risk.

When you recite a snapshot in time from a period when delta was not rampant, infections were not raging, and people were wearing masks, you ARE downplaying the risks.

Please read the earlier post I made and try to understand that waht you are calling a "risk" is not truly the risk - it is merely an old, fond, photo that will never be true again. That number measures the cumulative total up to the point it was taken - and that number will continue to grow over time.

KentuckyWoman

(6,709 posts)
116. Hmmm.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 10:09 PM
Aug 2021

The point about snapshot in time is well taken. The stat is recent. If I have confused local vs nationwide then I apologize.

I don't know how much clearer I can be than saying even if vaxxed we need to keep using ALL the tools ALL the time. If that is downplaying....

But you have every freedom to decide my motives for me and apparently my intelligence as well. Enjoy the superiority while you can.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
118. It's not local v. national
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 11:12 PM
Aug 2021

It is looking at a photo a past event and suggesting it predict the future.

Your advice isn't downplaying the risk - but coupling that with reciting a snapshot in time and referring to it as a (predictive) risk DOES downplay the risk. It is that number, which doesn't represent what people say it respresents, that is being used by so many to justify risky behavior (the risk is so small I can go to restaurants, I don't have to mask indoors, etc.)

Put yourself back in March 2020. Calculate the "risk" of getting COVID on October 15, 2020 (8 months into the pandemic) the same way you are calculating the "risk" of getting COVID while vaccinated (8 months after the start of vaccinatiosn).

The total number of cases in the US was 2, 460, 364. There are roughly 333, 251,943 individuals in the country. So calculating the "risk" of getting COVID is 2,460,364/333,251,943 = .00738(or .738% - less than 1%) So what's all the fuss about if the risk of gettting COVID is less than 1%

BUT - if you calculate the "risk" of getting COVID today (vaccinated or not, for simplcity) the ame way it is 39,655,515/333,251,943 = .1190. pr 11.9% - that's a significant "risk"

There were a lot of people, at the time, looking at the small numbers of people who had actually contracted COVID and downplaying the risk becase the number . . . at the time . . . was such a small portion of the population. That is happening now when you (and others) are using a similar snapshot calculation for breakthrough cases as predictive of the current risk of acquiring COVID.

That snapshot number can only grow over time (even when the actual risk is shrinking), because the numerator (the number of deaths, or the number of breakthrough cases) continues to grow - all new cases are added to the old cases. The denominator will stay roughly the same.

There isn't any real way to calculate an absolute risk at the moment. The best we can do with any accuracy is to compare vaccinated cases to unvaccinated cases.

If the exposure in the community is significant enough so that there are (in my county, as an example) 109 new cases every day, and the vaccines are, on average, 80% effective (that's probably a high estimate, given what we now know about the reduction in effectiveness aganst delta) Of those cases, about 18 of those cases are in people who are vaccinated and 91 of them in people who aren't vaccinated.

DemocraticPatriot

(4,687 posts)
31. Rather, that is Not 100% true. However, it is mostly true.
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 12:59 AM
Aug 2021

Most "breakthrough cases" of Covid in vaccinated peope ARE light or asymptomatic cases--
but not ALL of them, as the OP makes clear.

That is why we should all continue masking and other precautions, in addition to being vaccinated, which is what I do. I don't care to play the vaccinated Covid lottery.

Google is indeed wrong if they are making the blanket statement without qualifiers, which you cite.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,869 posts)
32. We'll, it is 92% true, But the 8% of hospitalized vaccinated people aren't the only ones infected
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 01:04 AM
Aug 2021

There are breakthrough infections that are indeed mild and even asymptomatic.

It’s not bullshit, you are just misunderstanding the data. As more people get vaccinated, the percentage of cases/hospitalization/deaths that are vaccinated people must also go up, even as the total number of cases/hospitalization/deaths eventually goes down.

If 100% of the people were vaccinated, then 100% of all hospitalizations and deaths would be of vaccinated people.

Demsrule86

(69,100 posts)
58. Thank you for this rational post. I refuse to be hysterical about this. I have done everything
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 06:22 AM
Aug 2021

I can. My husband went back to work...been in and out of work for more than a year thanks to the pandemic. We were almost out of unemployment (which sucks in Ohio). Now we face a chip shortage. Hubs is an engineer. Well of course we were thrilled but few in his new job wear masks...There is nothing we can do. That is not a reason to turn down a job. He refused being new and all to wear one and stand out as being fearful or possibly having some underlying medical condition (he could lose his job) So far, we have both been fine. Today, his boss said he strongly recommends a mask for all...so I am thankful. I don't fear death (I am vaccinated) as much as just being ill...miserable experience. I am hoping my eight-month-old granddaughter will be able to be vaccinated soon. We have not gone near her due to the fact we might get Covid and not know and pass it on to her. Have a great day and stay safe.

Demsrule86

(69,100 posts)
56. It is often true. My sister lives in Georgia. There are many cases. Her grandson brought it
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 06:09 AM
Aug 2021

home from school...everyone but the 10-year-old child was vaccinated. None of them got it including a daughter who has a serious autoimmune disease. This has been the case with almost everyone in her neighborhood. Most don't get it and those who do have a light case. Her best friend is a nurse and she says that not one vaccinated person has been put on a vent in the hospital she works at and died. I don't doubt it happens but very rarely.

Her Grandson, my nephew is going to be fine. He is already back at school. I take precautions, wear and wear a mask because I don't want to be one of the unlucky few who catches covid. I had it last year and it was miserable. But I didn't die from it and I wasn't even vaccinated back then.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
70. In red Texas you can't even get in a hospital unless you
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 04:42 PM
Aug 2021

Need to be vented. My MIL and FIL both have Covid, both vaccinated. She (otherwise healthy) has pneumonia, heart irregular beats, gastro issues, low blood oxy, high fever, and bad cough. When it gets really bad they'll see her in the ER for a couple hours but won't admit her because there are no beds and she doesn't need a ventilator. He has tested positive for almost a month now and it is so weak he can't walk from one room to another. They aren't showing up in hospitalization stats.

Today, a 27 year old coworker died from covid. Don't know if she was vaccinated or not.

Demsrule86

(69,100 posts)
73. That is sad...the only folks I know who have died were those who refused to get vaccinated...
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 05:56 PM
Aug 2021

There was one guy who used to do our lawn...his Trump signs are still out there...so ironic really. If you think about how his allegiance to Trump caused his death...he is gone and the signs are still there.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
91. Please stop misusing statistics.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 01:46 PM
Aug 2021

The .003 was a snapshot in time, when infections rates were low, mitigation was in place, and delta was barely a twinkle in anyone's eyes. It is NOT - it is looking at a photo of the good old days. The good old days of May are not predictive of how well unvaccinated people will fare now that COVID is rampant, somewhat over 95% of cases are Delta, and most people are still not wearing masks.

Mathematically - as the pandemic grows, and more vaccinated people become ill, the number you are calling a measure of "risk" will also grow - because the numerator (# ill) changes significantly as more people become ill, and the denominator (# vaccinated) is barely changing at all. Becuase it never was a measure of risk.

To use an analogy: If you look at the risk of death of people born in 1990 - right now it looks pretty good - since very few people (relatively speaking) die before age 31. So if you live your life believing that because you were born in 1990 you are invulnerable because your risk will always be miniscule, you might make really stupid choices. And I hope you can see that over time your risk of death will grow as you age. This is essentially the same calculation you are suggesting represents a fixed risk for those who are vaccinated. It doesn't. Over time more vaccinated people will become ill (just like more people born in 1990 will die), increasing the "risk."

The proper measure for risk is a compares the number of vaccinated people who are ill to the number of unvaccinated people who are ill

Under the best of circumstances, the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines is 95%. That means for every 100 unvaccinated people who get COVID, 5 vaccinated people will.

Currently, according to the most recent Mayo Clinic report, the effectiveness of Pfizer is 40%. That means for every 100 unvaccinated people who get COVID, 60 vaccinated people will also get it.

That is a significant risk. Yes - it is considerably lower than the risk for unvaccinated people. BUT it is far more than .003% under the current circumstances.

GusBob

(7,295 posts)
5. Thank you
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:49 PM
Aug 2021

Be prepared to be mocked as I was earlier this week pointing out a vaxxed friend died

How a public health crisis became a political football game is beyond my comprehension

Right now the vaccine is the football

Covid is the fucking referee

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
9. I know! It's like instead of listening to a clarion cry
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:59 PM
Aug 2021

from someone like you or me, who are living it, people chose to instead throw out old stats and defend a vaccine like they owned Pfizer stock. Not dissing any company... Just saying this blind faith in old numbers is small minded. Covid is constantly evolving.

wnylib

(22,270 posts)
36. I think the main problem with breakthrough
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 02:36 AM
Aug 2021

infections is that vaccinated people think they are completely safe. They take risks without precautions and get a heavy viral exposure of delta.

Most of the "old" statistics refer to alpha and do not take delta into account.

I don't have stats for my area on the vax staus of the deaths. I do know that 16% of all infections here are fully vaxxed. Deaths so far are among seniors in their 70s and 80s. That is no consolation to me since I am in my 70s.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
95. The other problem is that, by and large, people who are vaccinated believe that whatever they have -
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:05 PM
Aug 2021

it isn't COVID, so they don't stay home, don't test, don't stay away from children - and pass it on.

For the first 5 days, the viral load of a vaccinated person who has COVID is identical to the viral load of an unvaccinated person with COVID. It is those first 5 days when a vaccinated person is least likely to know or believe they have COVID.

My employee and I were collectively exposed 3 times before the first day of classes (i.e. enough for contact tracers to contact us). Two of those exposures were from people who were vaccinated and being cavalier about not having COVID (first by not masking around us generally, and second by not believing that the symptoms they had were COVID - rather than a cold, or a simple headache).

Fortunately, both of us escaped COVID*, because (among other things) both of us are vaccinated and are scrupulous about wearing our masks.

* I have one more test to go, since they want us to test at 5 days and 10 days, but the rapid test and PCR test @ day 5-ish were both negative.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
101. I read the same information, trying to figure out infectious period since both
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:39 PM
Aug 2021

my husband's vaccinated parents have Covid.

As for contracting it...Like you know exactly when you came in contact with an infected person (Day 1)...then there's incubation period in YOU which I read on average was 3.7 days (Day 2, 3 & 4). So you (if average) wouldn't test positive until (Day 5)? So based on what you said, testing day 5 falls in line.

Of course, what is more of a total guess is when you don't know where you got it. My in-laws don't - except constant flow of neighbors dropping in - and then the ironic - "oh, ya, we did go to that funeral"

Now my FIL who's still testing slightly positive 4 weeks in, can't walk. I was just reading how some covid patients lose their motor skills and have to literally be retrained to walk.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
104. The person managing contact tracing where I work -
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 03:08 PM
Aug 2021

says they use a lookback period of 48 hours from when symptoms began, then encourage testing at days 5 and 10 from exposure. Once you have a positive test, even if symptoms disappear, you are not allowed to return to work for 10 days from the start of symptoms. (But if you are vaccinated, you are not required to isolate - even with a confirmed exposure - unless you test positive)

The problem with testing at day 5 (and assuming you are OK until then) and allowing vaccinated individuals to continue to engage with others is that you can contract it earlier - at 3-4 days - test negative then, but still be contagious (and potentially asymptomatic - one of the 3 exposures in our office was with a person who believed they just had a cold).

Once I was informed I had been exposed, I stayed home until about day 4.5 - after my first negative test. I wasn't required to stay home, since I'm vaccinated, but I am not about to impose the COVID lottery on anyone else. I had a full teaching load starting at 2:00 PM on day 4, so I delayed testing until as late in the day as I could and still arrange to teach remotely if it was positive. That meant I needed to use a rapid test (less accurate), and follow it up for my own comfort with a PCR test later.

Masks continue to be very effective protection. I was relatively confident I would be fine, since I am scrupulous about masking. But I'm still going to walk the walk to protect others and stay home until the time most infections show up and I get a negative test. I would have been more comfortable with one more day - and, had it not been the first day of classes, I might have shifted to remote teaching rather than impose the risk on my students that I would convert later.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
122. Is that requirement or lack thereof for a vaccinated
Mon Aug 30, 2021, 12:05 PM
Aug 2021

person not to have to quarantine a state guideline or CDC? My two vaccinated SIL's are taking care of my in-laws who have covid. Talking same house. When they can leave they're both planning on isolating for 10 days. Before they go back to their own families. That made me feel relieved. I don't want them to know it's not required. LOL.

You have taken this all on in the most responsible way possible. And your empathy to others shines through loud and clear MT!!!!

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
123. CDC guidance
Mon Aug 30, 2021, 12:15 PM
Aug 2021
Fully vaccinated people who have come into close contact with someone with COVID-19 should be tested 3-5 days following the date of their exposure and wear a mask in public indoor settings for 14 days or until they receive a negative test result. They should isolate if they test positive.


So no isolation, unless you test positive.

That recommendation doesn't thrill me, since vaccinated individuals are more likely to be asymptomatic or have symptoms that are easily confused with a cold - but still be just as contagious as unvaccinated individuals. That's why I went a step beyond - testing at 4.5 days (as close to heading in to teach as possible, but still leaving time for a switch to remote).

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
124. So what it really boils down to is how, if you contracted it during your
Mon Aug 30, 2021, 12:38 PM
Aug 2021

Incubation period, contagious are you to others? And are you willing to take a chance that you aren't with your immediate family. So much of this evolution of covid has been to me a matter of common sense. If CDC is recommending that you wear a mask public places, if you've been exposed to someone with covid, it makes literally zero sense that you wouldn't do that in your own home ( or quarantine)

I swear you'd have to be really low IQ to have regular cold symptoms AND have been exposed to someone with covid and not realize that's the biggest red flag in the world. Yet my MIL thought her initial cold symptoms were related to having the window open and it was just allergies. That happened to someone down the street. It took her about 2 weeks of nurse maiding my FIL to catch it herself.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
125. Unfortunately, people who have been vaccinated are really reluctant
Mon Aug 30, 2021, 01:02 PM
Aug 2021

to believe they have what they are being told is a very rare breakthrough case.

One of the three exposures my employee and I had prior to the first day of classes was someone who was sure it was just a cold. (I don't believe she knew she had been exposed).

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
68. Yes it is a dilemma... On one hand we have to get more people
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:49 PM
Aug 2021

Vaccinated so you don't want to discourage that. But it's reality people are still going to get sick with breakthrough cases. So hiding that from the public is dangerous too. I mean it's going to happen and people will look to the government and say hey why didn't you tell me? I always think you should go toward honesty always.

 

Hugh_Lebowski

(33,643 posts)
6. CDC study of Los Angeles data showed that you're 29 times more likely to wind up
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:49 PM
Aug 2021

in hospital if unvaccinated vs. fully vaxxed. But only 5 times more likely to 'test positive for covid'.

So, you're right, it's not like vaxxed people aren't getting sick.

Sounds like in your county, you're only roughly 11.5 times more likely to die if unvaccinated (that assumes 50/50 in the population vaxxed vs. not), which seems low, but maybe more co-morbidities there vs. LA.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
21. Vaxxed and Unvaxxed are taking in the same amount of viral load
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:20 PM
Aug 2021

The difference is that the vaccinated person's viral load diminishes more quickly.

It's the severity of the bout for the vaccinated that I think is understated. But hell, the bigger picture is we have to convince people to get vaccinated so talking about people who are really sick who have gotten vaccinated doesn't play well

pwb

(11,482 posts)
8. Confident in the vaccine some vaccinated unmasked and went among
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 10:54 PM
Aug 2021

the unvaccinated. Our guard should remain up IMO.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
25. Bingo! What's really ironic is that their tendency to
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:35 PM
Aug 2021

not alarm and to be slow on the uptake actually makes them look incredibly worse in the long term.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
19. Perhaps it's a warning... If you are vaccinated DO NOT
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:13 PM
Aug 2021

go around unvaccinated people without a mask.

Thanks for your snark!

Ferrets are Cool

(21,152 posts)
20. Well, it wasn't snark and if you had stated that in your first post
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:18 PM
Aug 2021

I wouldn't have felt the need to ask. I don't read mind very well...especially on discussion boards.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
64. Wow didn't know there was thread police now
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:11 PM
Aug 2021

Should we be running ideas by you first before we post? It's be easier for you anyway

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
88. Good advise. My husband reminds me a lot that
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 01:23 PM
Aug 2021

He isn't inside my head to know what I was thinking about before I start talking.

 

CrackityJones75

(2,403 posts)
34. I mean I guess.
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 01:25 AM
Aug 2021

But I would really like to understand what you want to accomplish with this thread, here, in this community. If it was meant as more an open letter voicing what you would like to say to people in general I think it makes more sense. But by and large it seems to be preaching to the choir here. I respect you as a poster and enjoy many of your posts.

Here are some things that are a but fuzzy to me. Vaccinated needs to stay away from unvaxxed. That isn’t exactly an easy thing to do. I suppose for the people that we k ow aren’t vaxxed that is easy. But we are in a country where more and more we are being (stupidly) expected to return to normal, and that is going to expose us to people whether we know it or not. I think all or most of us here would like to be able to not expose ourselves to unvaxed when possible.

Unfortunately your post reads (even though I know that it isn’t your intent) that vaxxing is of little value considering you can still get and spread.

Also I am not sure about some of the stats and numbers that are being thrown around in some of replies here in the thread.

Additionally I share your concerns in that I have an unvaxxed 9 year old with pulmonary issues. He has to go to school in person with full classes -thankfully masked starting Monday. While I live in an area that has high vaccination rates for those eligible it weighs heavily on my mind. It terrifies me.


Anyway I don’t mean you any disrespect.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
96. Those of us who have been urging caution get tackled here, a lot, by people pushing the idea
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:15 PM
Aug 2021

that there's nothing to worry about if you're vaccinated - the line goes like - cases of COVID among the vaccinated are rare (or extremely rare - depending on the poster), but if you get it you won't get very sick or die. Those posts are often coupled with assertions the poster is vaccinated, so don't ask them to wear two seatbelts (mask + vaccine), they aren't going to sacrifice for the unvaccinated mobs.

Since I am one of those who have been urging caution - I recognized immediately what the OP was referring to. Personally - I tend to over-explain things, so I get the eye roll from the target audience suggesting that they aren't going to (or didn't) even bother to read the explanation that started with the background.

 

CrackityJones75

(2,403 posts)
97. I think caution is a good idea.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:20 PM
Aug 2021

But there are also people here that insult others that do not share the same level of caution, or that follow the guidelines of the officials in place. And if we i sult the people that put their faith in those officials then how do we insult the people that refuse to put faith in the officials that say to trust vaccines?

I agree with advocating caution. But there are some here that will beat people over the head with it. Puff up their chest, spread out their feathers and crow around about it in the face of those that HAVE to go about their lives because of jobs, caring for their family, etc.

I think there can be a happy medium there.

Ms. Toad

(34,423 posts)
100. I don't put my faith in people - I put my faith in science.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:38 PM
Aug 2021

There is a difference. Sometimes the agencies which are supposed to act for the good of the public lose their footing. The CDC has been doing that too much recently - sluggish to recognize the science and acting as if they are the personal physician (focusing on individual health), rather than on public health. I would never insult anyone for not following the CDC - any insults I levy are for not following the science. On many subjects it is the same, but unfortunately, on COVID, their record has been about 50-50.

There is also a vast difference between going about our lives because of jobs, caring for family, etc. and throwing caution to the wind while doing so. I've been in the office since the stay-at-home restriction was lifted sometime last summer, and teaching in person since August 2020 (over a year). I have never suggested anyone needs to stop living - just live in a way that is consistent with the appropriate respect for COVID.

I never stopped wearing masks. I could count on both hands the number of times between the first week of March 2020 and May 2021 when I had been in a room with someone I was not living with, without a mask. All but 2 of those were medical or dental situations (I had a root canal - which requires several visits, and three surgeries for an aggressive cancer). By now, I'm up to needing 3 hands to count and I've added 5 non-medical encounters (3 x were with my elderly parents in an isolated extended care community that had its first COVID case in its residents about 3 weeks ago).

I'm appalled at the number of DU members who insist that going without masks is just fine, despite the science on public health, and dismiss concerns about contributing to the development of Delta, infecting 0-11 year olds, or infecting immune compromised individuals. That's not consistent with science (it never was) and focusing on personal convenience rather than public health is about as far from progressive values as you can get.

 

CrackityJones75

(2,403 posts)
111. But how many people on DU today are saying that?
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 08:33 PM
Aug 2021

I don’t think many here are still saying that. I think when that was the direction of the CDC that was more of a thing. But again that is a department with billions of dollars in funding for these types of things. And we are like 14 months into it. Not surprising that people would welcome and celebrate the good news. I know I was ready to hear that good news. And then when the CDC said mask up again, my mask went on.

Then there is the truth that these agencies are going to get things wrong from time to time. We have to allow for that to some degree and allow them to save face so long as it wasn’t willfully putting people on grave danger for nefarious reasons. Which I don’t think the CDC was doing.


Anyway good on you for keeping yourself safe. Good call.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
109. Gosh I hope I'm not like you describe there.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 07:01 PM
Aug 2021

I totally get it - and I think I will always add - that I
am lucky enough to be able to be at home. I honestly
have great sympathy for those who have to be out
in the masses. And unfortunately in this red state
some workers just have to go along with whatever
their management fails to enforce or they get in trouble.

 

CrackityJones75

(2,403 posts)
110. I don't think anyone does anything on purpose really.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 08:27 PM
Aug 2021

People are just on edge. Everyone has been pushed beyond the limits of what we should be and sometimes the replies and the tones aren’t what they normally would be.

I am probably the most guilty of that.

We all just need a break so that we can breathe.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
121. Could not have stated it better!!! And I often
Mon Aug 30, 2021, 09:25 AM
Aug 2021

Wonder how much of an affect it has that trump was never really held accountable for letting it get out of control here to begin with, for purposely not warning people, and for pushing control ( and blame) down to states.

He also instructed FEMA not to pay for burials as is in their mission for national emergencies. Thankfully because of AOC's bill funds are being disbursed now. It was at least a small token of retribution.

liberal_mama

(1,495 posts)
24. But I thought the CDC said that vaccinated people could safely take off their masks!
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:33 PM
Aug 2021

My family member in public health says breakthrough infections are not rare at all.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
26. You know, if we give them a break for then, what about now???
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:39 PM
Aug 2021

There should be warnings every day that no one should be unmasked period paragraph. Crickets.

hamsterjill

(15,245 posts)
28. +1000
Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:53 PM
Aug 2021

The CDC made a huge mistake by saying masks were not necessary if vaccinated.

Mask, double mask, distance, hand sanitizer, wash hands when possible, vaccinated and you can STILL get sick.

We do what we can, and those efforts are thwarted by the willfully ignorant who won’t get vaxxed. But having the vaccine is not a get out of jail free card like it was initially portrayed.

liberal_mama

(1,495 posts)
29. This is a horrific situation. Almost 200,000 cases today and 1800 deaths. I don't know how they will
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 12:52 AM
Aug 2021

get this back under control, especially with school starting in a lot of areas. In my area, Western NY, school doesn't start until September 8, I think.

OnDoutside

(20,006 posts)
39. Bear in mind there is added danger being in a heavily red county,
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:01 AM
Aug 2021

than being in a heavily blue county. My brother and his family live in a heavily red county in Florida, so he is still very careful, including wearing N95 and KN95 masks instead of the usual cloth ones. His fully vaccinated 12 year old son is about the only mask wearing student in his class.

 

Treefrog

(4,170 posts)
99. Well, Provincetown, MA is about as blue as you can get.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:28 PM
Aug 2021

And they had a hell of a Covid breakthrough event.

OnDoutside

(20,006 posts)
106. That's really surprising, I wonder what the dynamic was there ? What is
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 06:06 PM
Aug 2021

the vaccination rate there ?

LetMyPeopleVote

(147,444 posts)
30. One of my law partners and his wife had a breakthrough infection
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 12:57 AM
Aug 2021

They sent their under 12 years of age kids to summer camp and the kids brought back COVID. My law partner is fine other than being tired. His wife had a cough and developed an ear infection. They gave her steroids and antibiotics for the ear. The kids had a cough but that is it.

Breakthroughs tend to be far less severe. No one in this family was in danger of going to the hospital

Rhiannon12866

(209,599 posts)
37. I went to a family funeral two weeks ago. My Dad's cousin died - of Covid.
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 02:36 AM
Aug 2021

She just celebrated her 88th birthday - took every precaution and was fully vaccinated. No one in her family can figure out how or where she got it. She was also a lifelong Democrat.

Response to Rhiannon12866 (Reply #37)

Jim G.

(14,811 posts)
42. Sorry For Your Loss
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:22 AM
Aug 2021

It was nice of the previous poster to go to the Library & make up a fairy tale for you to try to make you feel better too.





Rhiannon12866

(209,599 posts)
43. I did wonder if that was it, I actually checked just to see...
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:30 AM
Aug 2021

I've been here long enough that I recognize certain names and I noticed a familiar one just today.

And I was pretty shocked, she would have been my last guess of my great uncle's family, she was the family historian and if something happened that I should know, she'd be the one I'd hear from. It's also sad because there have been no family gatherings for over a year, including this time post-funeral - nobody is taking any chances. *sigh*

Jim G.

(14,811 posts)
46. This Is Certainly Not How I Planned My Retirement
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 04:41 AM
Aug 2021

I caught a little cold on Wed. & I'm like retracing my steps for the last week, seeing if I can still smell & taste, taking my temperature every half hour etc. & basically worrying myself over some dirty Kleenex. I talked to my sister today after her yoga & she said "Well you haven't been sick for five years" & I'm like "Glad I didn't talk to you on Wed. or I'd have been at Urgent Care with a stick up my nose."

I'm supposed to go to my Niece's wedding in October & then fly to California for a few weeks to visit another sister. I'm really not looking forward to either. My sister's husband is slowly dying from brain cancer so that's more of an obligation than a vacation.

The only thing I've been doing all summer is going to the Zoo every week or two where I can be out & still be distanced. Other than that I've just been playing tennis a couple times a week & riding my eBike on the bike paths, so at least I'm in really good shape now so I'll look good in a suit anyway.

I miss seeing live music & I'd sure love to go to a ballgame but I just won't. Maybe never, & that's sad. But I think about how this must be for my kids & Grandkids & that's even sadder. They're not able to do the things they should be doing & it's all because of the way TFG & his cabal of crooked morons bungled the entire pandemic.

I miss chatting with you too so I guess I'll have to do better.





Rhiannon12866

(209,599 posts)
49. None of ever imagined that this would go on for so long
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 05:19 AM
Aug 2021

A lot of us feel like life is on hold. I do very few things that I used to do. I was responsible for a couple of beginners' AA (Alcoholics Anonymous) meetings - 4x a week, but we had the last one on March 16, 2020. We figured it would be a couple or a few weeks, but they were held at a treatment center where people live, so they have yet to reopen and I don't know if they ever will.

And I used to go to a mediation group comprised of a group of (mostly) older ladies who I was very fond of - but a dozen of us met in an artist's studio - one of the ladies is an artist - and we crowded in on couches and chairs, no room for "social distancing," so who knows if that will ever resume. We last met when the eldest lady in the group invited all of us to the 70th anniversary of her husband's Bar Mitzvah! And that was at the end of February of last year. *sigh*

I've had a sinus issue, get headaches and sleep a lot - that predated the pandemic. My doctor suggested sending me to an ENT, but that took a few months because everything closed except for emergencies. So that's still with me, despite several visits.

And the thing is, we wasted an entire year doing nothing about this pandemic until we finally got a leader who took some action - and how many unnecessary deaths happened while he wasted all that time?? Meanwhile, it's gotten progressively worse and there's still no end in sight.

I've often wondered what history will make of this unprecedented time - I cringe to imagine. And what about kids? The younger ones have never experienced "normal" times - and I'm beginning to wonder if we ever will.

But we still have DU which has been a salvation during all this stress and angst - which has been an incredible blessing. I don't know how I could have survived without it - both for the information and the camaraderie here...

Rhiannon12866

(209,599 posts)
50. I missed the actual message, but I got the reference
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 05:24 AM
Aug 2021

And are there 2 of them? I see a very recognizable name with 4 posts, so far...

And thanks for the kind words. This was the first person I've known to get Covid - and not only was she family, but she was also fully vaccinated. I keep thinking how this didn't have to happen if only we'd had some national leadership from the beginning.

Response to Rhiannon12866 (Reply #50)

Response to Rhiannon12866 (Reply #52)

Response to Rhiannon12866 (Reply #54)

helpisontheway

(5,009 posts)
40. I don't believe the breakthrough infections are as rare as they claim
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 03:08 AM
Aug 2021

I have had several fully vaccinated friends and family get infected over the past month. Some are in places with high Covid infections (Memphis) but others are not. I think many of the breakthrough infections have mild symptoms or the people are asymptomatic. I think many with mild symptoms might do a rapid test at home so we never find out about those positive tests.

TheFarseer

(9,341 posts)
47. I would bet
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 05:04 AM
Aug 2021

The number of breakthrough cases is actually much higher. Asymptomatic people and people with mild cases, I would bet, are not getting tested.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
81. That is the whole point... I am challenging that they are
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 11:47 PM
Aug 2021

Mild and asymptomatic cases. Exactly what google tells us. It is not true because I am personally witnessing it.

Elessar Zappa

(14,319 posts)
55. Most breakthrough cases are mild.
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 05:58 AM
Aug 2021

Small amounts are miserable cases but don’t require hospitalization and an extremely small number are hospitalized and die. So the vaccine works very well. As for the unvaccinated, I don’t give a damn how much they suffer unless they aren’t able to be vaxxed for a legitimate reason.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
77. Where'd you get that? It's like very few in the big scheme
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 11:28 PM
Aug 2021

Of things get sick. So no big deal.

That is NOT the case.

ColinC

(8,516 posts)
62. Those most vulnerable to COVID who are vaccinated can still die of covid
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 02:48 PM
Aug 2021

Which is what makes the anti vax BS so dangerous and angering. It is the most effective way to fight COVID, and eliminate it. But anti vaxxers are endangering the lives of the most vulnerable as a result. I have no patience for them.

dsc

(52,209 posts)
76. No one should be saying the unvaccinated never get seriously ill with Covid
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 11:26 PM
Aug 2021

as some of them do. But the risks are vastly less if you are vaccinated and even if you get seriously ill (as in enough to be hospitalized) you are still less likely to die. Vaccines aren't 100% effective.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
80. I've never once read that vaccinated people are not getting sick.
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 11:46 PM
Aug 2021

And it was never sold as a possibility. We hoped the vaccine in the early days would be 60-70% effective. Now we have proof it is around 90-95% effective. Against not just getting sick but being hospitalized or dying. That holds true. As more people get vaccinated a higher percentage of the sick will be vaccinated. That’s just common statistics. If 100% of the people are vaccinated 100% of the sick will be vaccinated. But there will be lots fewer of them and very few deaths.

If an older person who is vaccinated gets sick, especially with co-morbidities then it can go poorly. But not as poorly as an unvaccinated person. And Looking at anecdotal cases is the worse way to judge risk.

In my part of Florida the hospitals have mobile morgues at them. Full of almost of only unvaccinated people.

But including a very few older vaccinated people and lots of unvaccinated people in the prime of their lives.

I’m fortunate to live in a part of Florida with higher vaccination rates. While still carefully masking and distancing I’m not living in fear like I did before the wife and I got vaccinated. Especially since my workplace just installed a policy that all 70K employees must get vaccinated or face termination.

Hyperbole that states that most vaccinated people are at daily mortal risk is not backed up by evidence.




 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
82. Oops. Exact opposite
Sat Aug 28, 2021, 11:49 PM
Aug 2021

Your:

We hoped the vaccine in the early days would be 60-70% effective. Now we have proof it is around 90-95% effective

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
84. Perhaps I made my point poorly. Because miscommunication is on the communicator.
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 12:05 AM
Aug 2021

Not the one being communicated to. So bad on me.

Vaccinations are not only about not contracting a deadly virus. But going to the hospital and dying from it.

If there is evidence that 25-30% of the people in the hospital are vaccinated please let me know. In a low vaccination spot like Florida where the hospitals are overwhelmed. Because in my part of Florida it is closer to 10%. Less in the ICU. Way less in deaths.

If in a place with very high vaccination rates I would expect the percentage to be higher, as counter intuitive as it sounds. A population with 75% vaccination rates will naturally have a higher percentage of vaccinated people in the hospital than a population with a 30% vaccination rate. But there will be way less hospitalizations overall.

A place with 100% of vaccinated people will have a rate of 100% vaccinated in the hospital. But there would be very few.

Some on DU act like our vaccines gave us no protection. That is as nutty as saying once vaccinated we could never get it.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
86. As per protection, think there's definitely a distinction between
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 01:16 PM
Aug 2021

The vaccine:
A. protecting/minimizing against incidences of hospitalization/death - Definitely!

B. Protecting against simply contracting the virus and getting ill. Not so much.

I think the stats now are not really telling the whole picture. As I've said, people who are vaccinated and ill and would in normal times be in a hospital are not there. It's almost like the healthcare system has weeded only the most serious cases. Some have no choice.

andym

(5,457 posts)
93. Latest CDC data show vaccination effective but breakthrough cases at a non-trivial rate
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 01:51 PM
Aug 2021
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm
New COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations Among Adults, by Vaccination Status — New York, May 3–July 25, 2021


Summary
What is already known about this topic?

Real-world studies of population-level vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalizations are limited in the United States.

What is added by this report
?

During May 3–July 25, 2021, the overall age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in New York was relatively stable (91.9%–95.3%). The overall age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection for all New York adults declined from 91.7% to 79.8%.

What are the implications for public health practice?

These findings support the implementation of multicomponent approach to controlling the pandemic, centered on vaccination, as well as other prevention strategies such as masking and physical distancing.

--------------
Everyone needs to be careful out there. Vaccine protection is not bullet-proof, so masking and other precautions need to be taken.

Lady Freedom Returns

(14,120 posts)
102. " Hey, LFR! Why are you still wearing a mask and Social Distancing?"
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:45 PM
Aug 2021

"You got vaccinated."

THIS! This is why. I have this crazy idea that life is more important than socializing.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
107. I think that really plays a behind-the-scenes factor. We know this couple
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 06:13 PM
Aug 2021

who LIVE to get together with others. I swear they can't go out to eat without
having someone eat with them. If they are on rare occasion alone,
they post a pic of themselves with their location on Facebook. They
also got Covid early, with a vengeance.

Sancho

(9,073 posts)
103. Locally in Sarasota Memorial Hospital Report...on FB
Sun Aug 29, 2021, 02:55 PM
Aug 2021

274 Patients Hospitalized - 28 Vaccinated, 246 Unvaccinated

48 Patients in ICU - 1 Fully Vaccinated, 47 Unvaccinated

36 on Ventilators - 1 Fully Vaccinated, 35 Unvaccinated

Reported on FB this week.

In this part of Florida, there are lots of older folks. It appears to me that the vaccine is doing the job. I've already gotten the booster.


Fauci said today that given time, the entire vaccination protocol could be altered to be more than 2 shots or on a different timeline. With the original research no one had an opportunity to figure out the optimal schedule or number of shots. It may be that a few years from now there will be a much more effective vaccination plan.

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