Allowing China a Dominant Role in Afghanistan's Future

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Reuters @Reuters 6m
Biden says he is sure China will try to work out arrangement with Taliban http://reut.rs/2YrUXQK

Link to tweet

WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he was certain China would try to work out an arrangement with the Taliban after the Islamic insurgents seized power in Afghanistan on Aug. 15.

"Asked if he was worried that China would fund the group, which is sanctioned under U.S. law, Biden told reporters, "China has a real problem with the Taliban. So they're going to try to work out some arrangement with the Taliban, I'm sure. As does Pakistan, as does Russia, as does Iran. They're all trying to figure out what do they do now."
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/biden-says-he-is-sure-china-will-try-work-out-arrangement-with-taliban-2021-09-07/

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Pres. Biden's acknowledgment of China's role in Afghanistan, however oblique, brought to mind my obscure 2009 essay on China assuming more responsibility for future and livelihoods of Afghans, given they share economic and security concerns and opportunities, mostly benefiting China today.

It was a longshot appeal then, maybe not so much now the U.S. military has relinquished control. It may prove prescient....

"Power in the 21st century is no longer a zero-sum game; one country's success need not come at the expense of another. And that is why the United States insists we do not seek to contain China's rise. On the contrary, we welcome China as a strong and prosperous and successful member of the community of nations." --President Obama, speaking at town hall meeting in Shanghai, China Nov. 16

ON his recent trip to China, President Obama publicly stressed cooperation between our nations and spoke at length of values and challenges that he said we share, while relegating serious criticisms of China's human rights record and economic concerns to private talks with the leaders there. Quite predictably, discussions of the economic concerns were reportedly muted by the fact of the record and rising U.S. debt that China finances such a great percentage of.

It's also reasonable to assume that the president's discussions of human rights abuses by China were similarly corrupted by the fact of America's spotty and sometimes negligent attention to the often destructive and devastating effects of our militarism waged across the sovereign borders of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan - the collateral effect of our 'shock and awe' bombings of civilian areas, the overthrow, replacement, and deliberate meddling in the affairs of sovereign governments; and the arbitrary, indefinite, and anti-democratic detentions of the citizenry, often without charges, trial, or counsel.

That spirit and focus from this new American administration on publicly stifling the negative about China and accentuating the positive isn't restricted to just economics or their abysmal lack of respect for their citizens' rights and freedom. The administration has yet to publicly challenge or solicit China to step up to their responsibility to the security of their border nation, Afghanistan.

In a period where China is experiencing unprecedented levels of growth and development - contrasted with America's faltering economy - little has been demanded of Afghanistan's neighbor in both the campaign against terrorism (a concern which China insists they share with the U.S.) and in the financing of the development of Afghanistan's security, an effort which the U.S. has opportunistically dominated.

At first blush, it would make sense that our government would be wary of allowing China - our longtime economic and military rival - to influence and advantage themselves of the Afghan regime our country folk are fighting and dying to preserve in power. It would even stand to reason that, given the posture our State Dept. and military take against what they see as potential threats from China's growing military, to China's refusal to cooperate with the U.S. in voting for U.N. sanctions against Iran, that our government and military would be loath to allow China to advantage themselves of the Afghan land or resources.

Yet, not only is our government acquiescing to China in their economic expansion into the new Afghanistan, our military has been directly protecting China's interests behind the sacrifice of our own nation's defenders.

In 2007, China's bid for copper rights in Afghanistan was accepted by the Karzai regime in a process in which many observers said the ethically-challenged government unfairly favored their influential neighbor. The deal included rights to the construction of a coal-fired electrical power plant and the contract to build Afghanistan's first freight railway. Earlier this year, it was reported that American troops there just happened to set up bases in Afghanistan's Jalrez Valley that they claimed were checkpoints against Taliban activity in the area, but effectively provides protection for China's copper mine.

While it's true, as American officials insist, that protecting China's mining enterprise in Afghanistan is also a defense of the country's most lucrative asset (a presumed benefit for the country's redevelopment), the glaring question is why hasn't the U.S. insisted that China assume the cost and function of that security?

China should be doing more in Afghanistan.

There is a glaring shortage of sustainable industry for Afghans who desperately need work. I'm not a fan of mining, but China's interest there should be leveraged to demand more from them in support of the infrastructure and development of the area for Afghans. I'm not supportive of a long-term U.S. role in defending that infrastructure. That job would seem to better fit folks in the region who should directly benefit from the Chinese projects and others, rather than some potential benefit to America.

The answer to all of that may well be within our nation's obvious rivalry with China and a lingering fear and secret loathing of the emerging giant. It can't be unnoticed by China that every decision our government makes to escalate and deepen our military involvement in the region is indirectly increasing our the debt to them that we've accrued as our military budget is inflated beyond our many other priorities and ability to pay. It may well be that there is a natural reluctance from the administration to demand an Afghanistan tribute from the creditors to that debt.

It would likely pain our defensive government and military establishment to allow China to move troops in and set up defensive bases in Afghanistan's neighboring provinces (like Uzbekistan) to 'fight terror'. But if there is any sincerity at all about preserving and defending the government we've helped install into power and authority, we should acknowledge that regional countries like Pakistan, Russia, China, and even Iran are going develop closer and more meaningful economic and security arrangements with the new regime than the West. It makes sense that we demand they assume responsibility for preserving the state they benefit from.

China should be allowed to do more in Afghanistan.

In March, the Obama administration accepted an invitation to attend a Russian-hosted conference on Afghanistan at which Iran also participated. The State Department sent a senior diplomat to a special conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization being held in Moscow to discuss Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization includes Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as members. Along with Iran, India, Mongolia and Pakistan are observers.

I'm convinced that China, Russia, and their trading partner, Iran, are indispensable to a 'stable' Afghanistan in the future. It was interesting to see the U.S. attend this conference because the SCO is usually acting outside of American interests. I can only conclude from the willingness to engage at this meeting that the U.S. also views these nations as indispensable to Afghanistan's future. That wasn't the case with the last White House which focused on its antipathy toward Iran in distancing themselves from the group. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld questioned Iran's involvement with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, saying that he thought it 'strange' that the SCO had included Iran because of what he said were their 'links to terrorists'.

If this administration is serious about looking for an 'exit' out of Afghanistan, while staying true to their stated concerns for 'stability' and defense of the Afghan government, they will need a regional organization like the SCO to organize Afghanistan's neighbors to provide the finance and the manpower for a cause which will (and should) arguably benefit those nations above and beyond America's own grudging campaign against the remnants and ghosts of the fugitive 9-11 terror suspects.

In that initiative, China should be asked and allowed to assume a more responsible and dominant role in Afghanistan befitting the enormous stake and benefit they will undoubtedly enjoy from the protection our own military forces presume to provide at this point in our eight-year-plus occupation.

[bigtree]

1. lol, I'm gonna drop this in my journal

...the dearth of responses feels like 2009, all over again!

[Klaralven]

2. I doubt that China would be interested in spending a lot of money in Afghanistan

If they can do some profitable trade in raw materials extraction, that would allow Afghanistan to pay for good and services from China.

Beyond that, China would be happy with a primarily agrarian, weak, and peaceful Afghanistan with no power to interfere in China.

[bigtree]

5. I guess you mean the Taliban would be paid

...they have security concerns along their relatively small border and the Taliban might help with that.

But China will have competition from other regional nations vying for some economic or strategic interest in Afghanistan. If the U.S. resists the temptation to turn back to isolating confrontation with the superpower, much can be done to resolve possibly mutual 'security' interests and concerns in Afghanistan.

If not, we may see rivals like Iran or Russia gain strategic ground there. Or, worse.

[Klaralven]

6. Afghanistan had strategic value to the US as a platform to foment chaos in Central Asia

I don't see what strategic value it has to any of the regional powers other than India. It would be useful to India in order to keep Pakistan nervous about a two front conflict, but that use seems moot now that it is run by Islamists.

China is friends with all the surrounding countries. It would be happy with Afghanistan as what is known in the game of Go as a "dead stone".

[Irish_Dem]

3. The US will "allow" China to get involved with Afghanistan?

What power does the US have to dictate China's foreign policy with Afghanistan?

[bigtree]

4. it was written at the height of our occupation

...would read 'encourage' China, today.

[Irish_Dem]

7. So China goes into China with US blessing?

China will form a close relationship with the Taliban, and it will be for the better.
Whether the US approves or not.