Manchin: I will not vote for $3.5 trillion bill

[spanone]

(CNN) - Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin said Sunday he will not support the $3.5 trillion price tag for the economic bill that would expand the nation's social safety net, suggesting he preferred $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion for this bill.

" (Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer) will not have my vote on $3.5 (trillion) and Chuck knows that, and we've talked about this," the West Virginia senator told CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union."

"We've already put out $5.4 trillion and we've tried to help Americans in every way we possibly can and a lot of the help that we've put out there is still there and it's going to run clear until next year, 2022, so what's the urgency? What's the urgency that we have? It's not the same urgency that we had with the American Rescue Plan. We got that out the door quickly. That was about $2 trillion dollars."

The spending bill proposed by Biden and his allies in Congress spreads the spending out over 10 years as opposed to the Covid stimulus plans that Manchin referred to, which were more immediate injections of cash.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/12/politics/joe-manchin-democratic-bill-3-trillion-climate-provisions/index.html

[Haggard Celine]

1. The fossil fuel industry doesn't want that bill to pass.

I think that's Manchin's biggest influence.

[oasis]

2. I'm so not impressed by Sen. Manchin's "performance".

[Septua]

28. I don't think Manchin is a Democrat...

Based on minimal research, W Virginia has been turning red for a number of years. He's having to play both sides, maybe looking at another term. He didn't like Biden's voting rights bill and doesn't want to mess with the filibuster. Not good for Biden, Democrats or Democracy.

[oasis]

31. He'll be in a world of hurt once Dems have a safe margin in the Senate.

[Goodheart]

3. What's the urgency?

Take a look around you, Joe. Oh wait... you already have... you and your daughter are already getting YOURS. Screw the common folks... let them drive across shitty roads and bridges, live with blue tarps on their roofs, stay away from the internet, and eat cake.

[Hotler]

4. Go have sex with yourself Joe. nt

[Botany]

5. The fossil fuel industry does not want the bill to pass because it puts America on a cleaner lower

... carbon energy path and away from oil, gas, and coal. We are talking about 10s of billions of $s for the
fossil fuel industry and their execs in the short run vs the future of the planet and Manchin and Sinema are
going for the dollars.

Joe doesn't care just look @ what his daughter did at mylan pharmaceuticals to people who need epipens or to
all those employees of Mylan's production plants around Morgantown, W.V..

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Don't listen to what he says, watch what he actually does.

I don’t think Manchin has the guts to single handedly destroy Biden’s agenda- he is hoping the committees will cut is down before it gets to the floor. He is hoping he can soften support from the other Blue Dogs.

If Dems stay united (except for Manchin and Sinema) he will fold. The only significant bill I am aware that he has sabotaged in the past was a gun control bill after Sandy Hook. Otherwise, when a Dem sponsored bill comes to the floor, he votes yes. This reconciliation bill is a thousand times more significant than that.

[qazplm135]

8. I don't know

It's looking more and more like he means what he says.

Which means progressives in the House ain't voting for the bipartisan bill, which means it's all dead.

He definitely ain't voting for any climate stuff. I think that's clear.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. We'll, that's certainly what he *says*...

But once Schumer brings the bill to the floor for debate, Manchin will be in the hot seats to state specifically what he would cut and why. So far, in his op-eds and Sunday show headline grabbers, despite the MSM playing along, he has failed miserably to make his case. Now, as news of him owning the dirtiest coal plant in WV emerges, he’s got an uphill battle.

I don’t think he has the guts to sabotage the bill once it gets to the floor- that’s why he’s trying so hard while it’s still being drafted in committee- he knows once the bill hits the floor, the narrative will turn against him and the momentum will be to pass the bill as written.

[FBaggins]

11. You keep speculating that Manchin will put himself in the hot seat?

Schumer can’t “bring the bill to the floor” without it first being voted out of committee. Yet the committee is split 50/50

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Is it? Haven't seen any such reports-do you have a link indicating the bill is stalled in committee?

[FBaggins]

17. It was part of the organizing resolution of the 50/50 Senate

Even committee membership (with a democrat as chairperson), but bills can't be voted out of committee without a majority vote. The exception is that the full Senate can pull them out of committee with a floor vote.

The upshot of this is that, unless there's a Republican on the committee willing to vote the reconciliation package onto the floor, Schumer can't "bring it to the floor" and "put Manchin in the hot seat" unless Manchin votes to let it come to the floor in the first place.

Which is why I was saying a few days ago that it doesn't matter whether Schumer "rejects" Manchin's "call" for a "pause". If Manchin really wants a pause (as opposed to it just being a negotiating tactic)... then it's paused.

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Even with tied committee votes, Manchin would still have to vote No to block the bill

My understanding is that each time a committee ties on voting a bill out of committee, the chair must report this to the Leader. Either Leader may then schedule four hours of debate on whether to move a bill (a committee’s tied report) out of committee to the floor for a final vote.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/senate-agrees-on-rules-of-the-road-as-1031255/

In the case of the reconciliation bill, multiple committees are working on text for the final bill. If each committee ties, this means that there would be four hours of debate for each committee, during which time they can call out Manchin to support passing the bill out of committee or tell his colleagues why he will vote no.

Then, after each four hour debate period, the full senate takes a vote on whether to move the bill out of committee. Once again, Manchin is in the hot seat, as he would be forced to vote “no”, over, and over, and over again in order to block each committee’s draft from becoming part of the final bill.

That’s why I think Manchin has been desperately trying to craft a media narrative that “this bill is too expensive and we can’t afford it and besides it would crash the economy” through his op-eds, Sunday show appearances and leaks by his No Labels surrogates. He’s hoping he can peel off a few more Dems to block the committee’s bills, but other than Sinema, I don’t see any other Dems wavering in their support for Biden’s agenda.

Manchin desperately does not want be the lone Democrat, voting “no”, over, and over, and over again, sabotaging Biden’s agenda. Except for one gun control bill after Sandy Hook, he doesn’t have a history AFAIK of acting as the sole saboteur of Dem sponsored bills when Dems have the majority. Senators hate that kind of on-the-record accountability- and this time there is no filibuster to hide behind, and no cadre of fellow Leibermanites to force a watered down compromise as was done in 2009 with the ACA. Despite all the intense lobbying and millions of dollars flowing, there aren’t any other Dem senators (other than Sinema) saying “I won’t vote for the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill”.

And Sinema wants to be re-elected in 2024.

[FBaggins]

19. No... he doesn't have to vote "no"

A failure to vote "yes" would do it. Schumer needs 51 votes. Without Manchin there are only 49 (even if you're right that the rest of the caucus is on board - which they aren't).

And he could probably vote "yes" on any committee bill that he liked and still "pause" the overall package by just blocking a couple of them (because it can't move forward unless the House and Senate bills are identical).

or tell his colleagues why he will vote no.

Is there some confusion on this point? He's been pretty clear why he won't vote for some of it. If he was worried about having to oppose something publicly, he wouldn't keep showing up on national news programs where he knows he will get the question.

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. Are you saying he would merely vote "present"? That's just a coward's "no" vote...

Other than Sinema, can you name any other Dem senators who would block any of the committee bills or vote no on the final bill? I’m not talking about minor quibbles that will likely be resolved in the committee process, I’m talking about any other Dem senator who has taken a Manchin like stand.

I’m not aware of any- they certainly aren’t clamouring to make their positions know if there are.

It will be interesting to see if Schumer can find a work around to Manchin’s obstruction attempts.

[FBaggins]

24. No, but then I don't think that he'll have any problem voting "no"

It's just that he doesn't have to.

Moreover... he won't have to vote "no" or "present" because a failed vote hurts Schumer far more than Manchin. So he likely won't let it come to that until he has 51 votes. So it's exactly the same effect. The bill is "paused" until Manchin decides otherwise.

Other than Sinema, can you name any other Dem senators who would block any of the committee bills or vote no on the final bill?

That's begging the question. There have been a number of Democrats who have expressed concern with the 3.5T figure. But, just like the filibuster, they don't have to upset some on the left as long as the more moderate members are willing to take the heat. They can just make noise like "let's see the specifics and how it's paid for"

It will be interesting to see if Schumer can find a work around to Manchin’s obstruction attempts.

When you see people speculating that "maybe he can convince a couple of republicans to go along with it"... you know that the answer is "he can't". He can only compromise with Manchin in the hopes that everyone to the left of him will accept that. And that House moderates will as well.

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. I guess we'll see who blinks first

Although I wouldn’t rule out any of the possible outcomes, I don’t think Schumer is a sure bet to cave to Manchin’s threats, and just might proceed to votes on the committee reports with out Manchin’s vote locked down…

A failed vote might hurt Schumer more than Manchin if other Dems join Manchin in voting “no”, but a vote not taken hurts Biden’s presidency and all Dems hoping for re-election in 2022.

We shall see…

[FBaggins]

29. It all depends on how you define "blinks"

If they meet at $2.25T then both sides will declare victory and both sides will have members that express disappointment.

A failed vote might hurt Schumer more than Manchin if other Dems join Manchin in voting “no”,

No. If it goes down in flames... particularly if progressives then kill the bipartisan bill in the House... it will hurt Pelosi/Schumer/Biden far more than Manchin. "Dems in disarray" will be the least of it in the press (and for once will probably be accurate). It would probably doom 2022 (and thus the remainder of Biden's first term).

Which is why it must not happen.

[Fiendish Thingy]

30. Absolutely- if Manchin starts to communicate specific details of acceptable language for the bill

To Schumer, Sanders, and the rest of the committee chairs, rather than the vague generalities he has tossed around via the media, and all sides keep clear lines of communication open, then yes, the possibility of a negotiated compromise that will meet the approval of the CPC improves significantly.

Fingers crossed that this comes to pass 🤞…

[qazplm135]

15. He's already said

At least one thing, climate.
I think assuming people are cowards is not particularly useful.

I think he thinks progressives or maybe even Republicans in the House will pass the bipartisan bill and then he'll feel as if he has all the power.

I think that's a miscalculation. What remains to be seen is what he does if it looks like the bipartisan bill will die too.

[Tommymac]

7. Manchin is on thin ice here.

If President Joe's bipartisan push and phone calls can succeed in prying lose 2 sane Republican Senators to vote for their constituents' Best Economic Interests and not the party line on the 3.5 T Infrastructure Bill...

Manchin and any other other recalcitrant Dem can lose ALL their power and influence and become just 2 more Senators on the losing side.

And there are very possibly at least 2 rethugs who may be swayed out of the 7 who voted to impeach TFG Some are NOT up for reelection next cycle but are retiring.

https://www.npr.org/sections/trump-impeachment-trial-live-updates/2021/02/15/967878039/7-gop-senators-voted-to-convict-trump-only-1-faces-voters-next-year

7 GOP Senators Voted To Convict Trump. Only 1 Faces Voters Next Year

Of those seven Republicans, two are retiring and only one — Alaska's Lisa Murkowski — faces her state's voters in the next election cycle, 2022.
...
Senator: Richard Burr, North Carolina
Senator: Bill Cassidy, Louisiana
Senator: Susan Collins, Maine
Senator: Lisa Murkowski, Alaska
Senator: Mitt Romney, Utah
Senator: Ben Sasse, Nebraska
Senator: Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania

Let those of us who live in their States start putting pressure on them to support the President's push to make America THE modern Economic Powerhouse for the next 20 years.

It's worth a try.

[Greybnk48]

9. Joe "Coal" Manchin is on thin ice with Americans for sure, as most want

all of this to pass. The Voting Rights Act, and the For the People Act. This has got to be theater of some sort.

[2naSalit]

12. I'd get in trouble if...

I said what I would like to about this dino.

[Buckeyeblue]

13. He'll vote for it. He just wants attention.

[DFW]

14. I think he is waiting to hear from a Republican or two

If two of them support the bill, then Manchin and “Cinema” lose their relevance if they vote no, and the two Republicans become the media darlings.

I think both of them are looking over their shoulders in the direction of Alaska, Nebraska and Louisiana. During hurricane season, any Louisiana member of Congress in Washington wants to be seen bringing home the bacon. They are so used to being screwed over by Republican presidents that they can’t quite bring themselves to believe that Biden will be there for them, though WE know he will. But we’re “libbruls,” so they’ll never take our word for it.

[wellst0nev0ter]

20. Fine. Manchin doesn't have to vote for it

Then progressives will pull their vote for the infrastructure bill, and pin the whole debacle on Manchin.

Those who pull the trigger first will get all the blame.

[boston bean]

22. Will he accept 3.4999 trillion?

[FBaggins]

25. He has said $1T... perhaps as high as $1.5T

The hope is that this is a negotiating position and he'll actually accept $2.25T or $2.5T.

Then, of course, we have to ask whether those insisting on nothing less than $3.5 will also be able to meet somewhere in the middle.

[MoonRiver]

23. STFU POS Manchin!

[spanone]

26. Nice to have 'one of ours' doing the gqp's bidding.