Yep. Sinema's Cratering Back Home

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/yep-sinemas-cratering-back-home

*snip*

How do the actual numbers at home add up for Sinema? I looked. They’re terrible! Honestly substantially worse than I thought. This mid-July poll from Data for Progress tells the story. Among Arizona Dems Joe Biden had a 94% approval rating; Mark Kelly had an 85% approval and Sinema had a 54% approval. Within your own party that’s a really, really bad number. And how did she fair with independents? She actually came in behind Biden (44%) and Kelly (45%), though not by much. Sinema was at 40%. When Arizona Democratic primary voters (who can be Dems or independents) were given the options of “I would vote to reelect Kyrsten Sinema” or “I would vote for a different candidate who would get rid of the filibuster” the numbers were basically catastrophic. Sinema got 22% and the unnamed filibuster-buster got 66%.

Of Sinema, Biden, Kelly and the Republican Governor Doug Doucey she’s the least popular.

I mean, good lord. That’s terrible. Now, these numbers were from July and they’re from Data for Progress, a group that very much wants Sinema to go back to being a Democrat. So maybe some of the questions are a bit leading. But they’re a legit group. Their numbers are real. But the numbers are so terrible for her that even if question wording nudged things a bit more negative for her they’d still be catastrophic. If anything she’s escalated her defiance of her party and very real chance she could scuttle Joe Biden’s entire presidency. So I doubt they’re any better for her. And there’s a good chance they’re worse.

So what explains all this?

When I talk to people who’ve known Sinema for a long time they talk about her ambition and mutability (not rare in politicians) but also her rigidity. There’s no deftness or nuance. It really seems like she got the idea she’s the next John McCain and that Arizona wants another independent maverick and that playing to DC “moderate” worship is her ticket to power and possibly a future presidential run. But it turns out she’s just too rigid and clumsy to pull it off and she appears to be on course to a one term career in the Senate as a result.

*snip*

[brewens]

1. I don't think she cares. She must have a pretty good deal lined up for when she gets thrown out of

office.

[XanaDUer2]

2. I don't think she cares, either nt

[PatSeg]

5. It would appear so

She doesn't really seem to care about being a senator, probably just an opportunity for her.

[wryter2000]

21. That's what Howard Dean said

"Maybe she doesn't like being a Senator."

Find with me. Let's get a better Dem in there.

[PatSeg]

37. She behaves and dresses

like a high school girl, not a senator. She doesn't seem to have any respect for the extraordinary position she holds. Oh well, she wouldn't be the first senator to not take the job seriously, but still, it is terribly disappointing. Some have just used it as a stepping stone to something else and acted like they really didn't want to be there. It is definitely not everyone's cup of tea. Joe Biden loved being a senator whereas John Edwards hated it and couldn't wait to get out of there.

[Raster]

55. I live in AZ. I voted for Sinema. I donated to Sinema. I raised money for Sinema.

NEVER AGAIN. I had high hopes, and now I just want her term to be over.

Many of us Dems in Arizona are asking the same question: Who is she working for, 'cause it certainly isn't us.

I will vote for Sinema ONLY if she is the only candidate against a rethug. If there is a viable choice in the next primary, I will make it gladly.

#ReplaceSinema #AZDeservesBetter

[SergeStorms]

9. Well, she still gets...

lifetime healthcare benefits even if she's a one term Senator, and the cost for that is quite substantial at today's rates.

[Dave says]

17. They legislated themselves a good deal, huh

I’m jealous.

[DenaliDemocrat]

20. Completely untrue Republican talking point

They are the same as any other federal employee and need years in service to get to carry it into retirement

[brewens]

22. I'd like to know how the fuck anyone on our side falls for that bullshit? n/t

[Habibi]

36. Unfortunately, we sometimes get lazy. Or

I do, anyway. I've run across this talking point from more-or-less "trusted sources" and never bothered to fact-check it. I appreciate being corrected.

Now I have to go fact-check Denali's claim.

[MagickMuffin]

15. She's set herself up to be a Pharma Lobbyist.

They be paying her a very pretty penny right this second.


I believe it is around $500,000 thus far, that I've read about.

[George II]

38. If you're talking about the last election cycle, not even close. Below are the top 20....

She's not even on the list. It's too early in the 2022 cycle to make sense yet.

1 Sanders, Bernie (I-VT) $1,264,615
2 Ossoff, Jon (D-GA)$865,823
3 Warnock, Raphael (D-GA) $765,716
4 Warren, Elizabeth (D-MA) $718,163
5 McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) $556,990
6 Kelly, Mark (D-AZ) $542,307
7 Perdue, David (R-GA) $535,908
8 Loeffler, Kelly (R-GA) $513,231
9 Tillis, Thom (R-NC) $471,884
10 Peters, Gary (D-MI) $370,562
11 Cornyn, John (R-TX) $326,496
12 Gardner, Cory (R-CO) $323,583
13 Graham, Lindsey (R-SC) $309,666
14 Klobuchar, Amy (D-MN) $288,988
15 Daines, Steven (R-MT) $282,838
16 Jones, Doug (D-AL) $276,531
17 Hickenlooper, John (D-CO) $255,760
18 Ernst, Joni (R-IA) $249,961
19 McSally, Martha (R-AZ) $249,136
20 Cassidy, Bill (R-LA) $236,547

https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/recips.php?ind=H04&recipdetail=S&sortorder=U&mem=Y&cycle=2020

[MagickMuffin]

46. Well it's interesting Bernie is the biggest recipient but campaigns against them

Interesting indeed.

[Irish_Dem]

53. Very interesting indeed.

[live love laugh]

47. She doesn't care like McConnell and Graham--they still "won." nt

[elleng]

3. mid-July

[Celerity]

10. Yes, it is probably worse now, especially after she said no to the federal

government reforms on prescription drugs, a key element of Biden's agenda, and with her being one of the top recipients in Congress of big pharma contributions.

[wellst0nev0ter]

18. And she won't be up till 2024

So unless there's a recall election, this poll is garbage.

[Mad_Machine76]

27. That may be true

But it is a least a portent of possible problems with her later if she continues this course.

[viva la]

4. So who can primary her?

Any ideas?

[wryter2000]

23. Mark Kelly's twin

I think there are others, too, but that's the only one I remember.

[viva la]

24. Scott Kelly

He'd be great. of course, it could be confusing to the other senators-- identical twins.

[DFW]

48. They could get around that

Mark usually wears a small moustache where Scott does not (at least I've never seen him with one).

That would actually REALLY be cool--having a pair of identical twins as Senators from one state.

[wryter2000]

56. Republicans could use some confusion

[Ptah]

62. What is Scott Kelly's connection to Arizona?

Is celebrity enough of a qualification for you?

[wryter2000]

65. I've heard him suggested here

I assumed the person knew what they were talking about. No need to get snippy

[Ptah]

67. What is Scott Kelly's connection to Arizona?

[WarGamer]

6. if she switched to GOP'er I Wonder how she'd poll...

[Celerity]

13. Poorly. She is openly bi-sexual, an atheist/agnostic, and pro choice.

If she were a person of colour, she would have all 4 major Rethug head exploders covered. Well in a way, she, as woman, has 4 of 5 covered.

[viva la]

32. She's so weird--

That cotton-candy hair, the miniskirts and thigh-high boots (in 2021!), the little schoolgirl skirts.

The curtsey.

She does seem like one of those creepy Republican woman-hating women.

[not fooled]

58. Howie Klein has her pegged

He calls her crazy, literally crazy. Has been saying this for a long time. I used to think he was exaggerating. Not any more.

[NBachers]

7. I've got money waiting to donate it to her primary foe.

[Rebl2]

33. When is

her next election-I hope next year

[AZProgressive]

8. She certainly doesn't represent me

And she used to be my Rep. I like most of our Senators and it doesn’t take a lot like I will settle for less but am very disappointed in Sinema. I voted for her over the Bill Clinton & Obama endorsed candidate in her first primary for federal office thinking she would be more liberal and voted for her several times since. I did vote for Deedra Abboud in the 2018 primary who Sinema refused to debate and I could have warned people about her but I don’t think they expected her to be this bad.

I do feel like Mark Kelly listens so I will be glad to vote for him in 2022 but I don’t feel Sinema represents my interests at all.

[panader0]

11. I voted for her as the Dem on the ticket. UGH!

I have e-mailed her several times, and finally let her know that I won't vote for her again.

[Takket]

12. her story should be a cautionary tale........

We need to be vigilant in the primary process to prevent charlatans from Sinema from undermining the agenda that the majority of people vote for.

I look forward to her be primaried into oblivion next year.

[druidity33]

39. She's an opportunist...

and according to Josh Marshall, she is "reading the room wrong".

[Corgigal]

14. She doesn't represent them,

she auditioning for her next job, by being used by them. I see no public service in her.

[MagickMuffin]

16. She's set herself up to be a Pharma Lobbyist.

She's their go to girl

[Captain Zero]

28. Does any pharma company have an AZ presence?

Any research or manufacturing facility like at all?

[MagickMuffin]

29. I don't know, but why would that matter?

Most lobbyist are close to DC, so, they can influence congress.

[budkin]

19. You love to see it

She can't leave quick enough.

[Efilroft Sul]

25. She brought it on herself and gets what she deserves.

The people, however, deserve better.

[qazplm135]

26. I just don't understand

I get being a moderate and wanting to, ya know, moderate the "excesses" of a piece of progressive legislation.

When this all started, I fully expected the moderate side to say oh man 3.5 Trillion is a lot of money, and can't we slice some here and there, get it down to somewhere between 2.5-3 Trillion to sell their brand of moderation, plus they'd have the bipartisan bill to help them get reelected.

And I was quite alright with all of that. Everyone wins. Progressives get 3.5 to 4 trillion of new spending on stuff we really do need, moderates get to be "moderate" but also get to lead the way on a bipartisan bill, one of the few of any substance in recent memory. It's simply an easy win win. Everyone is happy. No one is upset. Everyone turns out in 2022, and we have a slim chance of holding on to everything and it sets up Biden well for 2024.

Nothing these handful of folks are doing is win win. Let's assume they achieve their goal...the bipartisan bill passes and reconciliation more or less dies. Then what?

Progressives make up half the party, and let's all be clear, they are our most energetic group. They do the registrations, they turn up and vote, and they will have been made to eat a crap sandwich. I am going to guess that at least 20-30 percent of them are going to say f that and sit home. Trump's not on the ballot, so if Dems lose some power, so be it. It's a pretty likely result. So having a single bill to tout ain't going to help moderates when progressives sit home and some of them lose seats and all of them lose committee chairs.

It's penny-wise pound foolish thinking.

[Mad_Machine76]

57. +1

[oldsoftie]

30. keep on scratching & the damn GOP will win back the seat.

She votes with the President most of the time a GOP replacement wouldnt

[kairos12]

31. She's toast in AZ. Progressives here can't stand her.

[TomCADem]

34. Unlike WV, Arizona is a Purple State...

...but that does not necessarily mean that she can try to split the baby to win. In WV, Manchin is running in a solidly red state with voters who generally vote Republican, so I can understand why he holds his positions. If Manchin goes too progressive, then he will likely lose a majority of WV voters. Plus, I think that Manchin really is a right of center moderate.

In contrast, in Arizona, as the election audit shows, Republicans are crazy, thus there is no middle to cater to. You have total polarization. You either think believe that COVID, vaccination and climate change, etc., are a complete hoax, and you are totally racist, or you live in reality as a Democrat. Just because you are in a purple state does not mean that there is a large group of moderates.

If Sinema really is a moderate, then she has no constituency unlike Manchin who I think is probably not too far off from most West Virginia Democrats.

[Salviati]

40. Even Manchin's constituents support the Build Back Better programs

https://www.filesforprogress.org/memos/bbb-wv.pdf

It's +22 with republicans
Even the clean energy parts are +28

Manchin may represent a more conservative constituency, but that can't be used to explain why he's opposing the reconciliation bill.

[Bucky]

42. Like most loyal employees, Joe Manchin works for who pays him

Voters only pay him a few hundred thousand a year.
Lobbyists pay him millions and offer a better retirement plan.

[TomCADem]

43. Does that mean they support a $3.5 trillion bill?

I think even Manchin and Sinema support an infrastructure bill. Even Republicans in the Senate will say they support a bill, but they just want a much lower amount.

[Salviati]

50. Yes, likely voters overall by a 43 point margin, republicans in particular by a 22 point margin.

The polling question specifically mentioned the 3.5 trillion dollar number.

[Fiendish Thingy]

35. Don't tell us Josh, tell her

Reading Marshall’s previous two columns on Sinema in the past week, it appears that he thinks Sinema actually believes [/i in her “maverick” image, and believes it is the winning strategy to higher office.

If Marshall is right, this isn’t a case of Sinema not caring about being re-elected or having some sweet lobbying deal lined up, it’s a Trumpian-level delusion that she is actually beloved by Arizonans for her stubborn,mavericky, contrarian style.

For the sake of democracy, Someone, perhaps a senior staffer, should give her a reality check, and soon.

[Bucky]

41. Voters giving her little curtsy and a thumbs down

[Dorian Gray]

44. She's bought into her own hype

and she had a shitty hype man.

[Patton French]

45. Well, how can her voters be happy with her positions

Her campaign did not foretell this.

[DFW]

49. TPM needs to proofread more

"And how did she fair with independents? "

That's "FARE," not "FAIR."

"Fair" would only be correct in Republicanese, not English.

EXCERPTS FROM THE OFFICIAL DICTIONARY OF REPUBLICANESE

In Republicanese, many words that sound alike may be spelled differently at random. A few prominent examples:

In Republicanese, the following words may be spelled at random using any of the three ways given:

A.) Two, Too, To
B.) Their, They're, There
c.) Your, Yore, You're

The Republicanese version of Robin Hood therefore starts with "In days of you're...."

The only rule is that the correct use of them as in English is never permitted twice in a row.

[Steelrolled]

51. I'm afraid there is large bi-partisan support

for these grammatical mistakes.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

52. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

54. I find that "unnamed" rarely wins the Primary...

When you have an actual candidate in mind, get back to me.....in 2024 when she's up for re-election.

[Mad_Machine76]

59. At least we're not the only ones

mad at her.

[appleannie1]

60. Could Sinema and Manchin be GOP plants?

[Blue Owl]

63. They might as well be...

And we already know that Mike Pence is a plant -- a potted plant, that is...

[appleannie1]

66. lol

[Roy Rolling]

61. Branding

[lees1975]

64. This is not Barry Goldwater's Arizona

It's a state with more than 7 million people, an increasing majority of them from the Northeast, Upper Midwest and California, with a big Democratic majority and a large Latino population that was helped across the voter registration threshold by the anti-Arpaio vote several cycles back. By the time she runs again the Democratic majority will be able to win statewide by much more than the 11,000 votes that Biden beat Trump by.