Did you know that Sinema had voted 50.4% of the time supporting Trump?

[bluewater]

Last edited Sun Oct 3, 2021, 11:26 AM - Edit history (1)

Let's give everyone the full picture on why she was ranked the "47th most conservative Senator"

Trump score

How often Sinema votes in line with Trump’s position: Career 50.4%

How often Sinema is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin: Career 39.8%

Difference between Sinema’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores: Career: +10.6%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/kyrsten-sinema/


Hmmm.

Sinema voted 50.4% of the time supporting Trump's policies according to 538.
That was +10.6% greater than projected, again, according to 538.

Sinema's career voting record paints a different picture, don't you think?

So is the definition of a "moderate Democrat" someone who votes with Trump 50.4% of the time and +10.8% more often than expected based on Trump's performance in their state?

In fact, looking at the 538 data, Sinema voted with Trump "more often than expected" than any other Democratic Senator. And was the only Democratic Senator reaching double digits in that regard.


How's that for a "moderate Democrat"?

Just a bit too much mavericky, perhaps?




Psssst, Just between you and me, I don't think that Senator Sinema is actually a moderate Democrat.

Can we please stop calling her that?

It reflects badly on all the actual moderate Democrats who are supporting the President and our Democratic agenda.

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Obviously some very deep pockets got her attention. She better fucking raise the debt ceiling.

that is all I can say

[bluewater]

3. So far, Sinema has voted in favor of President Biden's positions...

But her latest pronouncement slamming the delay on the infrastructure bill as "inexcusable" is a direct challenge to President Biden's position.

We all will have to wait and see what the mavericky Senator will do next.

[Irish_Dem]

8. Do you know what this latest temper tantrum is about?

What is she really angry about?

[bluewater]

11. Do I know the real reason for the outburst? No.

in the OP she basically says its because Speaker Pelosi broke her promise to hold a vote and many other Democrats in the House broke some sort of implicit promise to pass the bill. I suppose we can include her being angry with House Republicans for not voting for it too, based on her statement.

In short, Senator Sinema is calling out the President, Speaker Pelosi, and the majority of the members of the House of Representatives.

She's quite the maverick and independent voice in the political wilderness, no?

[Irish_Dem]

13. Maybe she is angry that some of her power got taken away yesterday.

And it looks like she may have to negotiate and vote for a bill she hates.

[mn9driver]

49. She is upset because Biden made it clear:

If she and Manchin don’t get serious about negotiating, there will be no vote on either bill. She suddenly doesn’t have as much power as she thought she did and she doesn’t like that. I am expecting some serious horse trading.

[Irish_Dem]

55. Biden found her Achilles heel and pressed hard. Good for him.

It will be interesting to see how she reacts to this pressure and loss of face/ power.

We shall see how smart she is. Or how crazy.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

29. Her signature bill is on hold

She’s the one who got the bipartisan bill passed. Doesn’t excuse it, but that’s why.

[Irish_Dem]

32. OK thanks. Got it. Wouldn't a mature politician take this in stride?

And understand the process?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

33. Well, yeah

But Sinema is all about the shittiest optics possible.

[Irish_Dem]

34. Right, I wonder if she listens to her PR team, or thinks she knows better than they do.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

36. I wonder if she even has a PR team

And I’m probably the least critical of her on this site.

[Irish_Dem]

39. She has staff who help manage her image and have an eye on re-election, etc.

Staff who advises her, etc. They look at poll numbers and have their ear to the ground regarding DC buzz, gossip.
At least she should have this kind of staff advising her.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

40. They seem to try and deflect

Don’t know if it’s the staff or straight from her, but their first reaction is always “squirrel!”
After the curtsy, the response was to decry sexism. And while there was certainly a lot of sexism in the attacks on her (and on a lot of the continued attacks) they didn’t bother saying anything about why she voted that way and completely lost control of the narrative.

Then no one told her that missing a critical vote, even one that wouldn’t pass, was a terrible look after the curtsy.

Then no one bothered explaining why she missed the vote until a week later.

By the time she left DC for a doctor’s appt, no one cared if it was legit, or that she was on the phone all day negotiating with leadership. It was just Sinema being a flake.

And now the response is her sanctimonious distraction of a press release.

[Irish_Dem]

42. Narcissists have poor social awareness, can't stand criticism, often claim victim status to deflect

from their many mistakes. Their decisions are based primarily upon their personal needs and wants.

[soldierant]

57. "a mature politician"?

Ummmm - how many of those are there? And, yes, I do know of some but it still comes across as an oxymoron.

[Irish_Dem]

58. I cannot think of any mature statesmen at all in the GOP.

They are clowns, sycophants, sociopaths and narcissists.

[soldierant]

72. Not in today's GOP, no.

I'm 76, so I remember a few. But those I can think of today are all Democrats.

[Irish_Dem]

75. Yes, back in the day, there were a few honest GOP statesmen.

[OnDoutside]

54. Angry about being called out now the heat is on her.

[Irish_Dem]

69. Yes that is a part of it. She may not take criticism well.

[karynnj]

68. I wonder if the AZ Dems publicly speaking against her might be part of the problem

I suspect that she had a plan that she would become a star when the bipartisan bill passed and she could speak of everything she got for AZ. Instead that bill is delayed and she is repeatedly sticking her foot in her mouth and lacking the gravitas expected of a Senator.

Reality that more and more Democrats are losing patience with her flakiness as well as her positions.

[Irish_Dem]

70. Yes I agree on all counts.

Her careful plans are evaporating, fame and glory fading.

[calimary]

44. Well I do know one thing.

She will NEVER get another campaign contribution from THIS Democrat. I sent some to help her first Senate campaign. I won’t make that mistake again. And I’ve said so when I’ve called her office to lobby for her vote on something.

[Ka-Dinh Oy]

2. She is vile.

[BlueLucy]

35. +1

[ck4829]

4. About the same rate as Senator Flip Quarter

[bluewater]

9. What stood out is Sinema was the ONLY Democrat who supported Trump MORE than expected

based on how well Trump did in their state.

Manchin, for example, also voted supporting Trump's positions 50.4% of the time, but THAT was about -39% LESS than 538's projections expected.

That's what makes Senator Sinema stand out so much from real moderate Democrats and even from Senator Manchin.

[Lunabell]

5. These assholes are going to sink Biden's agenda!

We voted overwhelmingly for Biden. We rejected trump and his agenda.

[oldsoftie]

65. We on DU voted overwhelmingly; the nation did not.

Biden's actual victory was much slimmer than trumps. But everyone who wins thinks they have a "mandate". People dont like to hear it, but there's one reason trump won in '16 and lost in '20. And "policy" isnt the #1 reason. Trump got Obama voters who simply didnt like Hillary. Biden got the voters who simply wanted trump GONE. In both cases,its what you do after you win that either keeps those voters or loses them. Trump lost them in '20. He's still too stupid to understand that his "base" isnt what got him elected. Its the same people who defeated him.

[Lunabell]

71. Regardless, Arizona voted for Biden.

In fact, trump's recount found 99 more votes for Biden. 🤣

[oldsoftie]

74. Hasnt the AZ GOP called for the resignation of the GOP leader?

after this failed "audit"?

[XanaDUer2]

6. She's a joke

and her wardrobe and freakish wigs are disrespectful to the institution. Same as Jim Jordan and his stupid rolled-up sleeved everyman schtick.

[11 Bravo]

45. Jokes should be funny. She's an embarrassment.

[Joinfortmill]

7. I don't think she'll get re-elected, but 'til then we're stuck with her.

[brush]

10. She's so upset but wasn't even in town for further negotiations...

as she had to rush home to AZ for a previously scheduled fundrai...er ah...doctor's appointment.

The only thing she's really concerned about is her own re-election.

[underpants]

12. She won election in 2018 with 50.0% - like Manchin she is from a split state

Whether she’s representing her state or trying to stay elected or somewhere in the middle of those, there’s your explanation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona


? 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 ?
Turnout
64.85%[1]
Kyrsten Sinema by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Martha McSally official portrait cropped-2 115th congress.jpg
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,191,100 1,135,200
Percentage 50.0% 47.6%

[bluewater]

15. NOTE: Manchin voted with Trump -39% LESS than expected based on how red his state was.

Sinema voted with Trump +10.8% MORE than expected, again according to 538's analysis.

Sinema was the ONLY Democrat that voted with Trump MORE often than expected based on how red their state was.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/kyrsten-sinema/

That's eye opening.

[underpants]

30. Oh statistical analysis

Okay good point.

[bluewater]

31. Cheers!

[BlueLucy]

37. Manchin is not from a split state. He's from a ruby red state.

[tenderfoot]

50. How many conservatives voted for her?

eom

[dalton99a]

14. She's one of his favorite cheerleaders in Congress

[carpetbagger]

22. Geez. When you've gone more GOP than Charlie Christ....

The only thing I didn't like about him was his pushing California-style property tax hike restrictions (how quaint to think back to 2006-7 when people were worries that they couldn't afford taxes as their property values skyrocketed right before the crash).

[SunSeeker]

38. Wow. Cheering for tax cuts for rich? WTF

[bluewater]

41. Mavericky, to say the least.

[IronLionZion]

16. Now that Arizona is bluer than before

can we elect a real Dem for that seat?

[carpetbagger]

17. 40 or 60 percent would signal intent. 50.4 is a coin flip. Nt

[Hortensis]

28. Something like 2-8% is normal for Democrats.

[brooklynite]

18. Did you know that Sinema has voted 100% of the time with Biden

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/kyrsten-sinema/

But what’s really important is how she voted vs how a model said she should have voted.

[bluewater]

19. Yes, I noted that in my post #3 right here in this thread. Did you miss that?

In case you just overlooked that post, please allow me to repost it here:

So far, Sinema has voted in favor of President Biden's positions...

But her latest pronouncement slamming the delay on the infrastructure bill as "inexcusable" is a direct challenge to President Biden's position.

We all will have to wait and see what the mavericky Senator will do next.

I hope that clears up any confusion on anyone's part.

[brooklynite]

21. So she voted FOR Biden's Infrastructure billl...

But complaining that the House won’t vote FOR Biden’s Infrastructure Bill is voting against Biden.

Is this “new math”?

[bluewater]

25. Complaining about the President's current position on passage of BOTH Bills is mavericky

President Biden, facing an intraparty battle over his domestic agenda, put his own $1 trillion infrastructure bill on hold on Friday, telling Democrats that a vote on the popular measure must wait until Democrats pass his far more ambitious social policy and climate change package.

In a closed-door meeting with Democrats on Capitol Hill, Mr. Biden told Democrats for the first time that keeping his two top legislative priorities together had become “just reality.” And he conceded that reaching a deal between the divided factions on his domestic agenda could take weeks.

“I’m telling you, we’re going to get this done,” Mr. Biden told reporters Friday afternoon, appearing hand-in-hand with Speaker Nancy Pelosi after he left the closed-door gathering with Democrats. He added: “It doesn’t matter when. It doesn’t matter whether it’s in six minutes, six days or six weeks. We’re going to get it done.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/politics/biden-democrats-infrastructure.html

So, again, we will all have to wait and see what the maverick Senator Sinema will do next.

And as a side note, I think this was a strawman argument when you just said:

complaining that the House won’t vote FOR Biden’s Infrastructure Bill is voting against Biden.
Is this “new math”?

Did you do that inadvertently? I mean I just quoted my previous post to you where I said that, so far, Senator Sinema had voted in favor of the President's positions. How strange that you phrased it that someone said she voted against Biden.



Here, just to clear up any continued confusion, let me repost what was actually said in post #3 of this thread:

So far, Sinema has voted in favor of President Biden's positions...

But her latest pronouncement slamming the delay on the infrastructure bill as "inexcusable" is a direct challenge to President Biden's position.

We all will have to wait and see what the mavericky Senator will do next.

I hope that helps.

[FoxNewsSucks]

23. That gets frequently mentioned about Manchin as well.

However, there's something missing that is important. How many things never came to a vote because of her or someone like her? Things she likely would indeed have voted "not with Biden" on, but we'll never know because they're not counted in the statistic quoted from 538.

The fact is, she and Manchin are working against Biden, Biden's agenda, and the entire remainder of the Democratic party. They may succeed which will doom his agenda and any chance of retaining any control in the next elections.

Has Bernie Sanders ever done that and been defended so tenaciously on here?

[brooklynite]

24. So Manchin and Sinema are keeping the Infrastructure Bill from coming to a vote in the House?

[FoxNewsSucks]

26. They failed to live up to the deal made.

Neither conservadems like them nor progressives approve of elements of each other's bills.

As part of the compromise, the BBB went from the $6T progressives wanted to $3.5T. Corporate-sponsored Dems are now proving their word to be worthless by demanding that progressives roll over YET AGAIN and give in to what their donors want, despite having made a deal.

So yes. If Manchin & Sinema would live up to their deal, the House could then pass both bills. Biden could sign them.As agreed to.

I'm glad to see Jayapal and allies standing up to them. Because right now, it's the conservadems who are working to undermine Biden's agenda and Democratic progress.

[bluewater]

27. If they obstruct negotiations on the Reconciliation bill? Yes, according to the President.

President Biden, facing an intraparty battle over his domestic agenda, put his own $1 trillion infrastructure bill on hold on Friday, telling Democrats that a vote on the popular measure must wait until Democrats pass his far more ambitious social policy and climate change package.

In a closed-door meeting with Democrats on Capitol Hill, Mr. Biden told Democrats for the first time that keeping his two top legislative priorities together had become “just reality.” And he conceded that reaching a deal between the divided factions on his domestic agenda could take weeks.

“I’m telling you, we’re going to get this done,” Mr. Biden told reporters Friday afternoon, appearing hand-in-hand with Speaker Nancy Pelosi after he left the closed-door gathering with Democrats. He added: “It doesn’t matter when. It doesn’t matter whether it’s in six minutes, six days or six weeks. We’re going to get it done.”

The decision was a blow to his party’s moderate wing, the driver behind efforts to separate the measures and score a quick victory on the traditional roads-and-bridges bill its members badly wanted to begin campaigning on. It was a win for the liberal flank, which has blocked any action on that bill until Senate Democrats unite around an expansive bill to confront climate change, expand the frayed social safety net and raise taxes on the rich.

And it amounted to something of a gamble, since the president was effectively delaying final action on the part of his economic agenda he has nearly secured in hopes of unifying his razor-thin Democratic majorities around the larger social policy and clean energy measures that have clearly divided them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/politics/biden-democrats-infrastructure.html

[bluewater]

52. "How many things never came to a vote because of her or someone like her?

An excellent point well made.

The current impasse on passing the Reconciliation bill is a perfect example of this in action, as you just pointed out.

[True Blue American]

20. The Arizona Democratic

Party is not happy with Seneca.

Not just her actions on this bill. Her cute curtsy on the Senate floor. They are preparing a No confidence ce vote if she votes against these 2 bill. They are already lining up some one to run against her.

She left DC this weekend in the midst of negotiations.

[Paladin]

43. Did you know Bill Maher supported Sinema and Manchin on last night's show?

If you're surprised, you haven't been paying attention.

[bluewater]

47. Mavericky Maverick Bill Maher.

Is there a "par for the course" emoji?

[Paladin]

48. If there isn't such an emoji, there ought to be. (nt)

[Tommymac]

51. Fuck Bill Maher and the horse he rode in on.

He has NEVER been a friend to Democrats.

His reputation has been built on a piles of oil rich sand.

And he is not nor has he ever been funny.

That is all.

[jaxexpat]

46. Is there actually a Democratic party in Arizona?

Or did they get McCained into inescapable confusion?

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

60. Arizona Democratic Party passes resolution criticizing Sinema on filibuster, reconciliation

The Arizona state Democratic Party overwhelmingly passed a resolution on Saturday that criticizes Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) for her opposition to eliminating the filibuster to pass legislation key to the party and for her stance on Democrats' $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill.

The resolution passed in the committee in a 415-99 vote, according to Progress Arizona, an organization that advocates for progressives in the state.

The measure warned Sinema that the state party will “closely watch” her upcoming votes, and if she does not vote for the massive Democratic budget reconciliation package, it will “go officially on record” and “give Senate Sinema a vote of NO CONFIDENCE.”

The Arizona Democratic Party also called on Sinema to support ending the filibuster to allow the passage of voting rights legislation, including the For the People Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. They urged her to nix the filibuster to help pass other “urgent legislation,” including the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, commonly referred to as the PRO Act.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/574185-arizona-democratic-party-passes-resolution-criticizing-sinema-for-filibuster

[czarjak]

53. Plant. Period. They said they would and did. Bigly for them. Ask her.

[PoliticAverse]

56. And Manchin voted with Trump 60.5% of the time...

See: https://www.factcheck.org/2018/08/sen-manchin-often-votes-with-trump/

Manchin even bragged about it on his website.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

59. I predict she will face an unbeatable challenger in the primaries, will lose by a landslide.

The majority of Arizona Democrats who once supported her now despise her as a traitor to party and country.

[Nixie]

61. Maybe she will switch to Independent and get media

attention for bucking Democrats.

[634-5789]

62. Sinema is a RINO. She's no more a Dem than my poodle.

[Demsrule86]

64. She is a Democrat...a member of our party.

She vote with us way more than McSalley did...McSalley voted for every Trump measure including ending the ACA.

[634-5789]

73. I'll agree to disagree. Her and Manchin are not Dems they're extorsionists IMHO

[Demsrule86]

63. How exactly is the possible? Biden has not been president for even a year...and the only thing

Trump ever got legislation-wise was the tax cut for the wealthy. And she voted no on that. She did vote yes to keep tax cuts as did other Democrats...this game playing with statistics. And she votes way more with us than a Republican replacement would. And Arizona will not elect a progressive. Sinema voted yes on the rescue package...so I call BS on this.

[Celerity]

66. She is not the only Dem Senator (and certainly not the only Dem in the House) who voted more with

Trump than her district predicted.

Also, when she was in the House her Trump +/- was very large, second highest only to the forced-birther, Rethug endorsing/fundraising for, anti-immigrant, anti green, pro big oil and pro private prison conservadem Henry Cuellar (he voted with Trump almost 70% (68.8) of the time then, Sinema 62.6% of the time in the House when she was there).


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/

Senate (All Congresses)












https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/house/

House (115th, when Sinema was in it)

[bluewater]

67. Thank you for the correction, that should be "most supportive" then, rather than "only"

She was one of 8 Democratic Senators and the only Democratic senator reaching double digit "greater than expected" support of Trump.

Thanks for catching that. I will correct the OP at once.