Covid's Mysterious Two Month Cycle

I'm hoping that all the vaccinations in areas hit hard this round will prevent another huge spike with all of those ramifications.

Covid spreads when people are in close contact with another. It jumps during vacation seasons and dips when people are normally just stuck at home anyway. It'll be back up in November, after Thanksgiving.

in the US the delta wave began in the beginning of July, then peaked beginning of September

India's delta wave had a 4 month trough to trough timing, peaking two months in.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

on edit - the article says the same thing, they call it a two month cycle but are really talking about just the first half of it.

Call it the "Yippee-Oh shit" cycle.

People declare victory and behave as if all is good. ie holidays, summertime, etc.

Then, "oh shit" and people go back to the turtle position again.

I shall forever refer to it this way.

It really seems like, once all of the masking, social distancing orders ended at the beginning of the summer, things look relatively the same as they did pre-COVID- except for the continued sickness and death, which (it seems) people are pretty much just living with at this point, either because they don't care or they just have to deal with to keep their jobs and make a living. Kinda depressing really. I mean, I know that we have vaccines now, but there is still a pretty sizable segment of the society that refuses to get it and refuses to accept even the tiniest mitigation measures.

That's the response cycle we seem to have adopted. Great name for it.

It's offered as his opinion, of course, but does make some sense given the levels of both vaccination and infection we've seen. He is of the opinion that this Delta surge will be the last major wave we see in America. I am hopeful that he's correct. As soon as I can get my children vaccinated I'll be feeling much better about my family's own situation in all this, but I'll never get over what these anti-vaxxers have put our society and especially our healthcare workers through this summer. What a disaster.

Covid to CT governor Ned Lamont. I'm going to guess he is right. He really studies the numbers.

Or down to the 250 daily deaths of July, 2021.

Some combination of unvaccinated cases and breakthrough cases will continue at a higher level.

So we will probably settle down at 20-30,000/day

It's not Covid per se unless there are new more virulent variants but rather how much people let their guard down or just pretend like it isn't present in their environment. We are currently driving across the country and after we left WA state, pretty much everyone in ID, MT and WY has let their guard down. I pretty much will expect the same until we get to the east coast. We have been getting takeout meals and enjoying the great outdoors instead of being indoors. Lots of folks are losing business and don't realize it.