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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump running in 2024? Let's get real.
Trump lost to Biden by over 7,000,000 votes in 2020. That means that over seven million voters have to change their minds about Trump between now and 2024 - not a likely scenario.
Trump's defeat was before the events of January 6th, which led tens of thousands of registered Republicans to leave the party. Will they vote for Trump in 2024? Again, not a likely scenario.
Trump has garnered a lot of attention since he left office - and none of it good. His organization is under indictment, and he is being bombarded with costly lawsuits. The January 6th Commission is subpeoning witnesses - many of whom will sing like canaries rather than spend time in prison in order to cover Trump's enormous ass.
The Trump 'brand' has become toxic. Residents of Trump-branded buildings continue to win lawsuits removing his name from their residences.
The Trump kids continue to look like drugged-up assholes with every public appearance/statement, and have done nothing to advance the idea that Daddy Dearest is a "victim" of political machinations.
The much-touted MAGAts who were going to show up in November 2020 weren't enough to re-elect Trump in 2020 - and won't be enough to elect him in 2024.
The fact that Trump's rally attendees are leaving while he is still speaking is a sure sign that the same old/same old whining about a 'stolen election' is wearing thin on supporters. So how effective will that same old/same old whining be four years after the fact, especially when the evidence thereof has yet to be proven?
Trump is a dead man walking. Multi-million Republican donors are abandoning him, and DeSantis is polling neck-and-neck with the Orange Anus.
The idea that Trump is going to run in 2024 and win is just another pipe dream that MAGAts are clinging to while rejecting reality.
Ocelot II
(115,571 posts)Luciferous
(6,077 posts)SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)There are plenty of ways to win, even if they're not legitimate. Hell, he almost succeeded in overturning the election with a Capitol insurrection.
One thing is for certain, he's not going to run unless he KNOWS that it's in the bag.
localroger
(3,620 posts)...and even then too many people refused to go along. In 2024 it will still be a Dem administration, and there is no way in hell a coup like that will succeed. With his pandering to the worst of the deplorables and whining there is no way he has grown support since 2020. The only reason he runs is as others have said to grift the campaign contributions, and even then he has to overcome the likely embarrassment of losing again, which he may not be willing to bear.
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... in 2020 - and it still wasn't enough to get him re-elected.
Sogo
(4,986 posts)gives the legislators the power to throw out the vote and declare who they want as the winner.
It's not possible to "outvote" this kind of cheating.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... GOTv / organize past vote denial and nullification laws.
Vdizzle
(383 posts)Mr. Evil
(2,824 posts)That's all republicans do. It's what they're best at. But, the one thing they didn't count on in 2020 is that democrats, most independents and even some republicans were so repulsed by TFG that they risked Covid-19 to vote. The usual democratic voter apathy was unprecedentedly non-existent. We now know this is what it takes to beat republicans and I believe we will (and should) continue to do so.
LonePirate
(13,407 posts)For him, it's about money and attention. I don't think he cares about winning or losing as he certainly does not give a damn about governing.
The Wizard
(12,532 posts)are tired of the whining, not the winning.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)and have the campaign pay for his lifestyle.
Sid
Mike Nelson
(9,942 posts)... we're far away from 2024, but he is running. Yes, Trump is running. As much as one can determine this far away, he's running. Ron DeSantis is running, too. Yang is running. Pence is running. You can watch these people and see it... maybe it should be called "considering running," or something else... but I say they are running for President.
msongs
(67,343 posts)MyOwnPeace
(16,913 posts)Also, the 7 million voter difference only needs a 'swing' of 3,500,001 to make him the "winner" ("I need you to find me 3 1/2 million votes, plus one......" ).
Yes, the Electoral College is the "Bitch-in-the-Mix!"
CanonRay
(14,080 posts)Like everything else he does
stopdiggin
(11,235 posts)pretty much to say yay or nay?
(agree that actual election prospects stink worse than dead fish - and almost surely a bomb set to detonate within the party - but he seems to be that crack pipe that they just can't turn away from.)
MyOwnPeace
(16,913 posts)but quite appropriate: "but he seems to be that crack pipe that they just can't turn away from."
And I hope it takes them down the deep, dark hole that such an addiction delivers....
calimary
(81,085 posts)Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)stopdiggin
(11,235 posts)I see most of the current 'potentials' as doing everything they can to appeal to the 'bat sh*t' crowd - and very little evidence of any distancing. Given that parameter - I don't see any of the 'wannabees' coming within a mile of dethroning the king.
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... Trump and DeSantis pretty much neck-and-neck. DeSantis was a distant second weeks ago.
What does that tell you?
stopdiggin
(11,235 posts)(and perhaps have more faith there) - but I'll allow you the point. My point would be that DeSantis is one of the crowd that has spent the last year attempting to be Trump MiniMe - and I have a very hard time seeing the mob going with a Trump Lite, when the full flavor is right there for the asking.
(Getting back to you're OP .. do we, as Democrats, really want a saner, steadier, GOP nominee in 2024? I kind of relish the idea that Donald can take them all down with him!)
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... but he can be promoted by the GOP as the standard-bearer of Trump's policies without all the messy political baggage - like inciting an insurrection.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... despite a singular poll saying he's tied with someone.
DeathSentence is a wanna be and ... DOES NOT ... have the minerals to cut Putin's Whore's throat like vice versa
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)The actions of an asshole are not to be confused with intelligent thought as to which way political winds are blowing.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... stupid asses attempting to fit in Trumps circle.
DeathSentence trying to out Trump Trump and will come off as a wanna be and fake from get.
Putin's Whore will go after DeathSentences dead mother, live mother, his wife, children, dog, plants ... former teachers and current doctor like he has done in the past.
DeathSentences answer to all that?! Yeah ... he's NO WAY Christ Christie and at MINIMUM that's the kind of mouth they need to win primary against Trump.
Like Truman said the republicans will always go towards true a-hole vs a-hole light and Trump's stash is stacked higher than DeathSentences too.
Only 64% of democrats think voter suppression is a problem and the GQP has done worse with vote denial and nullification
I don't don't think we are aware of the danger that's coming and the "it's going to get worse with Trump" crowd has been right in the last 4 years more than wrong.
malaise
(268,642 posts)He's a washed up uncouth, lying, racist, woman-hating criminal and I'm just warming up.
NewHendoLib
(60,006 posts)he takes a golf cart instead.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)monkeyman1
(5,109 posts)czarjak
(11,246 posts)paleotn
(17,870 posts)Honestly, I don't think he'll be in any kind of condition to run for President, half ass or otherwise.
OAITW r.2.0
(24,269 posts)Get the message yet DUMMY? We ain't going back to an admin with no accountability.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,544 posts)OAITW r.2.0
(24,269 posts)But if your reality occurs, then most of us will be "all fucking in" with burning this pretend-government to the ground. Mitch. you got too close to the real voltage reality. You are a loser. You did nothing when you could have done something when you had control. Nothing but taxcuts for the rich. Fucking stupid social policy by people that need Koch funding to survive. The Republican vision for the future,
Nope....all you did was kick the reality can done the road......
Fuck you Mitch McConnell....the worst SML of all time. Total fucking asshole who does not give a shit about 65-70% of the generational population.
OAITW r.2.0
(24,269 posts)The more Republicans use BS legal reason's to gain power.....the less the American people will put up with this. Republicans are walking a tight rope between Democracy and a Putin-Style pretend Democracy. They better figure it out soon. Don't miscalculate how a lot of non-Trump, non-Republican voters will react to a coupe. We will stomp the moron's who never understood recent world history.
Demobrat
(8,957 posts)I hope Im wrong. I hope the cheeseburgers get him before then.
But considering he only listens to people who tell him what he wants to hear, and that wont change, he will go into it believing that he can and will win, elections be damned.
And then the cheating, and the violence, will begin in earnest.
Yes, some people have turned away from him, but the ones who are left are the real crazies. What will they stop at to insure he wins?
I cant imagine.
Lochloosa
(16,057 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,544 posts)Re-election is his only surefire way to avoid prison, so assuming his current grifting PAC raises enough money to fund his legal defences and delay any convictions or incarcerations before say, Spring 2023, Trump is definitely running, unless he dies before then.
You are right that he wont win another election, however, that doesnt really matter.
If Trump runs, and voting rights legislation isnt passed in the very near future (like by the end of this year), then the corrupt state legislatures in GA, AZ, and other states, along with the GOP majorities in the house and senate (almost certain if voting rights fails to pass), will ensure Trump is appointed to the presidency in 2025.
So, its up to the prosecutors and the grim reaper, and maybe congress, to save America from a second Trump presidency.
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)beyond that, its still possible via strategic election law changes in AZ, GA, FL, OH and other battleground states. But he can still do so much damage just by running and spewing hate through his rallies. And I bet social media will unlock his account the moment he is declared the winner of QGOP primary. The fact that Biden won by 7M votes is completely irrelevant when we are dealing with electoral college. He could have won by 20M votes, it still wouldnt matter but what really matters is - electoral college. You can continue dreaming about changing it, and while youre dreaming, SC expands its rightwing majority.
Dear DU, please realize it is VERY possible trump can get elected and the sooner we all realize that, the sooner we can start preparing for it.
reACTIONary
(5,765 posts)monkeyman1
(5,109 posts)too many loan's coming due & trump.org. to toxic of a brand ! all key personnel are facing indictments ! leaseing brand dropping trump brand faster than a stolen car . got wiped off the richest person list today ! far as him running again , forget it ! TFG is officially toast !
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)he has at least 80% favorability among remaining gop voters; it would be impossible for anyone to win primary if he is running; the only thing that can stop him is if social media will continue block him. He does not exist w/o twitter.
monkeyman1
(5,109 posts)AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)monkeyman1
(5,109 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... the issue of Putin's Whore sending using into a nuclear holocaust if he wins again.
There are 19 states with 31 new anti democracy laws in force, we better wake the hell up
monkeyman1
(5,109 posts)BlueTsunami2018
(3,480 posts)The electoral college is what matters, not the popular vote. President Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a combined total of 124,364 votes out of 18.6 million cast. Thats 57 electoral votes. He could lose the popular vote by that same seven million and still get the White House.
Dont think he cant win or win. He absolutely can. This country is very stupid and getting dumber by the day. Couple that with the voting laws no one is doing anything about and we have another, permanent disaster in the making.
It was absurd to think he could have won in 2016 but by hook or by crook, he did. He damn near did it again in 2020. Its absurd to think he cant in 2024.
By not passing the For the People act, were handing it to him on a silver platter.
Kaleva
(36,240 posts)in 2024. How many Trump voters in 2016 changed their mind and voted for Biden in 2020?
Voter turnout is the key. Given the historic number of voters in 2020, Trump's base was energized but the Dem base was even more so.
I don't see evidence that Trump is expanding his base. It appears to be diminishing.
Another thing. Trump's margin of victory in the key states of MI, WI, and PA in 2016 was much smaller then Biden's in 2020 which suggests Trump isn't a particularly strong candidate. for instance, Trump won MI in 2016 by 10k votes but lost the state in 2020 by 150k votes.
SouthernDem4ever
(6,617 posts)reACTIONary
(5,765 posts)cojoel
(953 posts)But Trump's campaigns are mostly MAGAt rallies, which are harder to do from jail.
DemocraticPatriot
(4,301 posts)Trump could have a rally there yet!
Jim__
(14,058 posts)Of course, it's the electoral college vote that matters. But the main reason for the new voter suppression laws is to stop democratic voters from voting.
Mr. Evil
(2,824 posts)then we will deserve everything we will lose.
Remember, this is who they are:
pnwmom
(108,952 posts)to change a hundred thousand votes in a handful of states. He doesn't care if he loses by 10 million, as long as he wins the E.C.
Celerity
(43,057 posts)thus this is not factual:
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... who voted (D) in 2020 to vote for Trump in 2024?
I think the question I should have asked in the OP is: Why would the GOP back him?
He's losing support, he's losing big money donors - and he's losing his mind as the pressure on him builds due to his company being indicted and the January 6th Commission.
The Republicans want the WH back in 2024 - so why run a proven loser. DeSantis is a viable alternative, he's gaining support while Trump is losing support - and he doesn't come with the baggage Trump is carrying.
What many people seem to be missing is that Trump isn't the man who won in 2016. He's weaker politically, physically, and mentally. He's not even a year out of office, and his corruption is being revealed on a daily basis - and there's much more to come.
The Repubs will go with DeSantis. He's Trumpy enough to satisfy the base, isn't embroiled in hundreds of lawsuits, and isn't under investigation for anything (so far) - like organizing an insurrection against our democracy.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,262 posts)which Republicans are working on, and a conservative Supreme Court will allow.
His corruption was obvious to us before 2016, so to say that it's obvious now doesn't help. The problem is that tens of millions of voters don't care about his corruption. He hates the people they hate, so they vote for him.
"Why would the GOP back him?" Well, they do - a poll taken 3 weeks ago:
No other potential 2024 Republican candidate comes close to matching Trump. Former Vice President Mike Pence notches a distant second place with 13 percent support among GOP voters, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a rising star in the Republican Party, scored only 9 percent support in a primary field that includes Trump.
Meanwhile, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are tied for fourth place, garnering 3 percent support each.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/573040-poll-trump-dominates-2024-republican-primary-field
He got tons of money in that fraudulent "help me steal the election" money-grab at the end of last year. Big money donors will help the Republican, whoever he is. In reality, Trump is indeed a proven loser, but a majority of Republican voters are literally delusional:
An even higher percentage of Republican voters 63 percent said Trump should remain the GOP's principal leader.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/poll-support-trump-big-lie-defines-republican-politics-n1279062
They like his baggage.
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)58% of Republican voters weren't enough to re-elect him.
Those who believe Trump "should remain the GOP's leader" don't necessarily believe he should run again in 2024 - nor does it represent those who would vote for him if he did.
How many Republican voters will still think the election was "stolen" from Trump when - four years after-the-fact - not a scintilla of evidence has emerged to prove it?
Trump is damaged goods - and the damage is ongoing. The January 6th Commission has just begun its work - and it doesn't bode well for TFG.
Trump's mental decline becomes more obvious on a daily basis - how obvious will it be by 2024? Do you really believe that the GOP will back a divorced-from-reality doddering old man in a bid to regain the WH?
muriel_volestrangler
(101,262 posts)He got more votes in 2020 than 2016. But President Biden got far more; postal voting and other ways made it simple and safe to vote without waiting in line for hours (which seems, "strangely", to happen far more in Democratic areas in Republican-controlled states). The Republicans know this, so they've got right on with making it harder for Democrats to vote next time.
"Those who believe Trump "should remain the GOP's leader" don't necessarily believe he should run again in 2024" - no, but the majority in the "should he be the 2024 candidate" poll do.
"How many Republican voters will still think the election was "stolen" from Trump when - four years after-the-fact - not a scintilla of evidence has emerged to prove it?" - going from experience, a majority, since they are mostly dumb fuckers who ignore reality when it suits them, and never learn.
"Trump is damaged goods" - and the point is, and you do need to understand this, they like the damage. They see him as one of them, but who has money. They think he's a martyr. Oh, I hope the Commission will achieve something, but we can't base the future of the USA just on that hope.
Trump's mental decline doesn't matter to the average Republican. They don't want him to be a good governor of the country; they want him to hate. He'll do that until his dying breath. And the 'money donors' want him to appoint corrupt cronies, and Trump being doddering will just aid that.
"Divorced-from-reality" is the brand of the Republicans now.
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... why Trump lost in 2020.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,262 posts)or the analysis that everyone has done of the election, I don't know how to help you.
Have you ever seen the numbers who voted in 2016 and 2020?
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)Record voter turnout in 2020 meant both (D)s and (R)s benefitted.
Are you suggesting that Trump actually won?
muriel_volestrangler
(101,262 posts)"Are you suggesting that Trump actually won?" WHAT THE FUCK?
No, of course I'm not suggesting that. How the fuck can you get that from ANYTHING I've said? What a fucking stupid red herring to try and insert into this.
What a fucking waste of time.
Celerity
(43,057 posts)The death cult will insist on the ur-type. Hopefully Trump assumes room temperature soon. That would be a wonderful outcome for the planet.
Jon King
(1,910 posts)Its that simple, he can not win PA, MI, WI. Demographics in the suburban metro areas changing towards blue. Democratic governors veto voter discrimination laws.
He can cheat in TX and AZ for sure....but the blue wall in PA, WI, MI that Biden rebuilt would make it impossible to win the electoral college. Sure he could win in those states, but it is not guaranteed of even very likely. So he will not run when the outcome can not be guaranteed by Repug governors and legislatures working together.
But he will grift and continue to rake in millions with the pretending stuff.
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)to punish the establishment or whatever divides the GOP.
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)That many maskless , vaccine avoiding Trumpers have died of Covid.
Jon King
(1,910 posts)Would not be far fetched to think that those states that were fairly close would see a 5000-10000 difference in dead MAGA voters compared to Dems.
BlueIdaho
(13,582 posts)Either that or a drooling dementia victim.
Martin68
(22,755 posts)monkeyman1
(5,109 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... alarms against Trump
lees1975
(3,839 posts)which is where he's going.
Kablooie
(18,605 posts)His lawyers will delay and stall every way they can and the trials will be long and complex anyway.
Trump will just ignore them, let his lawyers manage them while he goes out on the campaign trail.
Kablooie
(18,605 posts)Many Republican majority states are changing their election rules so that they will be able to claim voter fraud and declare Trump the winner.
On top of this it's the electoral college that actually decides the winner. If the Democrat wins, Republican run states could still send electoral voters that will vote for Trump and install him as the president.
Unless this kind of illegal, immoral, undemocratic behavior is prevented, Trump would have a very good chance at becoming president again.
Don't count on lawsuits keeping him out of the running. Nothing will have been decided by next November. The legal system is too slow for that, especially with Trump lawyers stalling everything every way they can. They will just be a footnote underneath the campaigns and won't bother Republican voters one bit.
And of course once he's president again they will all be dismissed.
niyad
(113,020 posts)Dorian Gray
(13,479 posts)If he changes tens of thousands of minds in a certain mix of states, then he can win.
I think we need to target messaging to those states. Let states like Georgia and Arizona and Wisconsin thrive under Biden policies.
I think he will run, and the only thing that can stop him is death. Or arrest of his inner circle. I do not think he will be charged, let alone arrested, before the next election. (I'm a pessimist, apparently.)
I also think he's committed to destabilizing the USA. Whether it's intentional or a side product of his over-inflated ego, I have no idea.
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... exactly how?
Dorian Gray
(13,479 posts)so I don't know. But there are people out there. Some may not vote. Some didn't vote but may.
I'd like to be more optimistic, but I saw what a cesspool this country was in the last five years.
My only point is that it's not 7 million all together, and we should not get smug about the possibility.
I think the 2022 election will be telling. If we make gains, I'll feel more confident going into 2024.
Maeve
(42,269 posts)Not even sure he'll be alive...
GoCubsGo
(32,073 posts)He's teasing a run in order to keep the suckers in his cult sending money to his PAC. He never actually crosses the line and says he's running, because once he does, all that PAC money is subject to campaign finance laws, and he can no longer use it as his personal piggy bank. Let's also not forget that he has hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due, and no longer anybody willing to bail him out, like they did in the past.
He also has been setting up an out by constantly bringing up the "doctor's excuse." He says he "could run, but the doctors could tell me not to..." It's not like he's in any shape to run as it is. He only holds one rally a month, because that's how long it takes him to recover from them. You'll also note that we never see him between rallies, and we only hear from him when he calls into the various propaganda channels to whine and air his usual grievances. We rarely actually see him, and when we do, he looks like shit. He's in no shape to run a campaign, let alone the country.
traitorsgalore
(1,393 posts)They love their false belief system tenant that only an outsider can properly destroy our socialist/marxist/commie government.
Trump will run if he's in jail or a hospital, GOPuke traitors don't care as long as they think someone will destroy the U.S. from the top.
ecstatic
(32,641 posts)under the current circumstances, because the qOP will toss 11k votes (or however many are needed) to overturn the actual results.
That said, I think tfg will be dead by 2024. That's my hope and I'm sticking with it.