Please Remember This Little Fact When Looking at LV Polls

[berni_mccoy]

Most Likely Voter Polling Methods do not consider newly registered voters.

Take Gallup's LV Model for instance:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/how-gallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx

If a new voter was registered, lets say in FL, and they were not a young adult, then they would most likely answer "No" to at least 4 of the 7 questions Gallup uses to determine if that person is a likely voter. That means Gallup would discard their opinion in the LV results (Gallup only considers a score of 6-7 as an LV candidate).

Now, let's look at new Democratic Registrations across the swing states. As of Oct. 9th we have this report from the NY Times: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/voter-registration-gives-democrats-edge-in-many-swing-states/



We have a significant edge that is retained from 2008 and another one going into this year. We've registered hundreds of thousands of new voters in FL between 2008 and 2012, and 400 thousand of them would not be considered likely voters this year.

And that is how you can get such a large variance between the RV and LV results as in the recent CNN/ORC poll for FL: Likely voters, 48 Obama, 49 Romney. Registered Voters, 50 Obama, 43 Romney.

The RV poll is based on a simple fact: are you registered to vote?. The LV poll is based on an archaic guess as to who is likely to show up. If an LV model accounts for someone who just registered as a LV, I think you would see much less error and/or variance between the RV and LV results.

If there is any doubt the Democratic Voter Registration Effort is having an impact, you can tell by the response from the Right: 1. Run their own ILLEGAL voter registration scheme to throw away Democratic Ballots; 2. Apply various voter suppression tactics and pass unconstitutional voting laws to suppress the oncoming TIDE OF NEW DEMOCRATIC VOTERS. But some of these efforts by the right have actually backfired on them, as it did in PA. It energized people to register and say we are here to take a stand. The same thing with the intimidation billboards in Ohio. Does the right think they can scare blacks into not voting by putting up such billboards? It only inspires them to go vote.

The Democratic Voter Registration Effort is a TSUNAMI that will overwhelm any and all efforts to shut it down. The GOP is a party of the past that has forgotten what it really means to be an American. The American people are rising up to show them just how out of touch the GOP has become.

[Dalai_1]

1. Thank you for posting this

This is the first time I have read anything about new registrations in our party..
my common sense has said this is really important in looking at the
overall polls and predictions...

[berni_mccoy]

4. The RW has done what they can to limit it after 2008. FL registration laws for example

They made it basically impossible for 3rd party groups to register voters.

[bigbrother05]

2. The pundits that rushed in to claim Obama blew it, etc.

Will be washed away just like the short sighted are when they rush in to pick up the beached fish just before the tsunami comes crashing in.

The first debate was a single point in the election timeline. Yes we all wish it had been better, IMHO it was pretty good overall, just a bit too professorial for the low info voter.

Don't think it was intentional, just a bit off because he hadn't had any full speed/full contact debates in this cycle.

[berni_mccoy]

3. Don't forget, Gallup switched from their RV model to the LV model

3 days after the first debate. Just coincidence? I think not.

[bigtree]

5. good info

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