Taiwan says China will be capable of 'full scale' invasion in 2025

[Klaralven]

Asked by a lawmaker on the current military tensions with China at the parliament, Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said the situation was "the most serious" in more than 40 years since he joined the military, adding there was a risk of a "misfire" across the sensitive Taiwan Strait.

"For me as a military man, the urgency is right in front of me," he told a parliamentary committee reviewing an extra military spending plan worth T$240 billion ($8.6 billion) over the next five years for home-made weapons including missiles and warships.

,,,

Chiu said China already has the ability to invade Taiwan and it will be capable of mounting a "full scale" invasion by 2025.

"By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-says-China-will-be-capable-of-full-scale-invasion-in-2025

[4Q2u2]

1. Then I Guess

They better get ready one way or another. Dialing 911 and calling us does not count.

[roamer65]

2. Hong Kong was the "canary in the coalmine".

The canary died.

The Taiwanese were watching Hong Kong very closely.

Taiwan is “threshold nuclear state”.

I expect that status will end soon, via a clandestine nuclear program similar to Israel’s.

[Saboburns]

9. I disagree.

Hong Kong has been China's since 1997 when the UK lease ended 156 years of British rule. China gets to govern it's land just as all other nations do.

Hong Kong didn't die. China isn't a boogeyman. The Chinese government isn't foolish. China isn't our enemy. The China-US relationship isn't a zero sum game. When good things happen for Chinese people that's good.

All this demonizing China has got to stop. I lived the exact same shit regarding the Soviet Union growing up. Come to find out Russians are damn good people. We shouldn't have been taught to hate and fear them.

I figure Chinese people are damn good people too. Let's not let ourselves be taught to hate and fear them.

[roamer65]

10. The Taiwanese don't fear the mainland people.

They fear it’s government.

[Saboburns]

11. Going on past history

I'd say the US government is much, much more likely to betray the Taiwanese than is the Chinese government.

Betraying our allies, invading sovereign nations, and overthrowing governments is what we're best at.

It's our true specialty.

[roamer65]

12. It's an Anglo-American trait.

That’s why I won’t blame the Taiwanese if they develop nuclear weapons.

Nor would I the Japanese.

[Tomconroy]

4. The US obligations to Taiwan are ambiguous

The Taiwan Relations Act:



https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relationship/policy-history/key-u-s-foreign-policy-documents-region/taiwan-relations-act/

[Saboburns]

6. China has been capable of a full scale invasion of Taiwan since 1949.

It's that they choose not to invade Taiwan. They've rightly figured that in this case the juice is not worth the squeeze.

Besides, Taiwan and China haven't been enemies, or even rivals for that matter, since the 1950's. 70 years ago.

[roamer65]

7. Correct.

They want Taiwan completely intact.

A war would ensure that would not happen.

[Iggo]

8. Wha...?

They’ve been capable since the ‘50s.