538 says we are worrying too much about McAuliffe's winning VA gov

[spooky3]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/do-you-buy-that-democrats-should-worry-about-the-virginia-governors-race/?cid=rrfeaturedvideo

Although Nate Silver includes caveats, he says the polls and past VA trends suggest that McAuliffe (D) will beat Trumpkin (AKA Youngkin) (R).

[bluewater]

1. "caveats" "suggests"... Nate Silver hedging again?

But hey, the prognostication business is hard, I guess.

[lagomorph777]

2. Sure hope he's right. VA could quickly spin from pretty good to utterly horrible.

Not many pretty good places left in this country.

[jimfields33]

4. True. Something is up.

McAuliffe is having Taylor swift help him in Virginia and she’s a Tennessee resident.

[Budi]

3. But..but.. what will Media talk about if it's not a near death horse race for the Democrats!!

'Money & Media', baby.
$$$$$$$$

[FelineOverlord]

5. I'm trying to volunteer with his campaign, but they don't make it easy

Most of their volunteer links and emails only ask for MONEY.

I don't live in Virginia and can't do in-person events. And they don't have text-banking, apparently.

I am absolutely terrible at phone-banking. I don't know enough about Virginia and I get panic-stricken if someone asks me a question I can't answer.

I am signed up to do text-banking for Phil Murphy, though!

[spooky3]

9. As a VA resident, I thank you for offering. I also don't like cold-calling people.

You might try contacting the Democratic Party of Virginia if you haven't already. Maybe they will be more helpful.

Both campaigns are spending tons of money on TV and YouTube ads (and probably ads on other sites).

[budkin]

6. I stopped listening to 538 after last year's election

They are hardly ever right about anything and Nate Silver annoys me to no end. Plus my favorite people there have all left (Clare Malone, Perry Bacon Jr., and Harry Enten).

[peggysue2]

7. Sorry, but Silver's immediate response to Newsom's rout (which he was dead-ass wrong about) . . .

Was to sound the alarm about McAuliffe's serious challenge in VA.

I'd suggest Dems in VA disregard the noise and just work their butts off as if Terry McAullife were 10 points behind.
Because that's the way we win.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

11. Second response...

His first was how great the recall was for Larry Elder.

[Peregrine Took]

8. He's a natural politician. 'Could have been president I bet. n/y

[FSogol]

10. He's right. If everyone shows up, McAuliffe will win. In my neighborhood

there is about 12 Youngkin signs on various houses and 3-4 McAuliffe (out of 200 some houses). The Democrats usually win my voting precinct 70-30.

[helpisontheway]

12. News keeps showing a new poll from the Hill showing them separated by 1 point. Nt

[tirebiter]

13. Do the texting thing

I joined in to the Newsom recall opposition doing that when the media seemed to buy the Larry Elder “candidacy” as a real thing. MSM was saying Newsom missed the boat.It seemed to be a good wake up call to the otherwise noninvolved. People seem to go for what the candidates are against more than what they’re for. Just sayin’