WTF's wrong w/ Iowa? Trump has a 32 point lead over Biden in net favourability in the supposed 'gold

[Celerity]

standard' Des Moines Register poll.

Trump (+8 net) 53% favourable, 45% unfavourable

Biden (- 24 net) 37% favourable, 61% unfavourable



https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/10/04/iowa-poll-ratings-former-president-donald-trump-rally-des-moines/8378131002/



snip



Methodology and more detail:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21075990-methodology-for-10421-trump?responsive=1&title=1



Biden's national approval ratings from polls at the same time as the DM Register poll







Biden's national approval ratings from now, from the most recent polls (toss out Rasmussen of course, plus Trafalgar and Quinnipiac look like outliers, as does, in the other direction, Redfield & Wilton)

[Ellipsis]

1. Pardon me but...

Fuck Iowa's poll results.

[Initech]

20. [phone]

[Hortensis]

23. +1000. Remembering also that Biden came in fourth in IA's Dem primary

even though nationally he was way out ahead. That wasn't a surprise given previous IA polls. Biden team actually grimly planned for fourth; and the GOP-serving MSM, as they planned, rushed to declare Biden's candidacy dead -- and bury it.

Didn't work. But that is Iowa.

[SoCalDavidS]

2. A Sign That The Democrats Should Invest ZERO $ In Iowa

Just write off the state's electoral votes. No amount of money is going to change the outcome.

And quit holding the 1st Caucus there. They bring in a ton of revenue for the state, and they don't even like the Democrats, they just like the money they bring during the Caucus season.

[elleng]

3. OK, forget investing $, but don't dare fail to invest time and energy,

in Iowa or ANYWHERE.

[Celerity]

4. deffo agree that it should NOT be first, & those caucuses (and all caucuses) need to be binned ASAP

we still need to invest time, effort and some money (for the House and Senate as well)

[triron]

5. Unbelievable stupidity is alive and well in Iowa.

[SharonClark]

29. As it is in how many other states that

voted for trump.

[Haggard Celine]

6. Shit, they're about to send Grassley back for another term at age 90.

They obviously don't have the best judgement, so who gives a shit what they think about Pres. Biden or Trump. I live in a state that would probably have similar results if they cared enough to do a poll here. We shouldn't get worked up over polls in states that are practically impossible for us to win, anyway.

[UCmeNdc]

7. Pass the infrastructure and Build Back Better bills in congress and watch what happens.

[JI7]

8. Young people leave when they get a chance making the state turn more right wing

[Celerity]

10. That sounds plausible as part of the explanation. Brain drain.

You have to be a fucking idiot to vote for Trump and QMAGAt Rethugs.

[PortTack]

9. Must be the water!

[Celerity]

16. this independent voter is slamming it down

[Deminpenn]

18. Or

sniffing too much cow manure.

[dem4decades]

11. And Iowa gets first say in choosing our candidate why?

Sorry Iowa, you deserve nothing from us, go to the back of the line where you deserve to be.

[rso]

12. Iowa

Fortunately, we don’t need or count on Iowa to win National Elections.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Iowa is one of the most rural states with one of the whitest populations.

There's no major cities in Iowa. It's a wonder the state remained Democratic for as long as it did.

It's got more in common with Nebraska than it does with Wisconsin, IMO.

[LonePirate]

14. Iowa has been a deeply red state for several years now. This is hardly surprising news.

[msongs]

15. hard to believe obama won iowa twice (by small margins) nt

[triron]

17. My sister in Omaha (who is a democrat) says IOWA stands for

'Idiots Out Walking Around'.

[Deminpenn]

19. LOL!

Have to remember that one.

[SharonClark]

25. So what is her acronym for Nebraska?

It’s been as bad as Iowa is now and for a much longer time.

[triron]

37. yes but Omaha went for Biden.

[UCmeNdc]

21. Pass President Biden's agenda . NOW! Watch what happens to his approval ratings!

They will go through the roof!

[SharonClark]

27. It wouldn't make any difference because

the repugs will take credit for it.

[vercetti2021]

22. No more caucuses for them

Write off this state and focus on Arizona, Georgia and NC at this point. Iowa is a lost cause

[Red Mountain]

24. I guess you would have to put them up head to head

[Red Mountain]

30. Trump won in 2020 by a little more than 8%

The Republican electorate has been pretty predictable....they don't admit they're wrong and gleefully double down on stupid.

Par for the course.

[moondust]

26. Perhaps a symptom

of decades of declining rural economies and schools.

Also, I believe TFG gave farmers big government handouts/bribes to compensate for his trade war with China that caused them to look elsewhere for soybeans and other farm products.

[SharonClark]

28. Bingo

[KY_EnviroGuy]

31. That poll is mostly an indicator of the degree of success of right-wing brainwashing...

over the last 40 years or so by talk radio, R-W cable news and now social media.

Republicans figured out the best emotional buttons to hit across the country many years ago. Basically, that means macho freedom and racism bullshit out West and religion plus racism bullshit in the South.

That's all......

[UCmeNdc]

32. Messaging is all that matters in Iowa?

Then get down and dirty with the messaging. Propaganda...

[KentuckyWoman]

33. Farmers.

It is a hard life. Most government programs to help never make it to small farmers despite all the promises.

Distrust of government is strong.

[Wanderlust988]

34. Dear media: Quit calling Iowa a fucking SWING state!!

It's gone hard right more than any other state in the country. It's NOT a swing state! It's NOT a bellweather state! I really don't care how well Joe is doing in Iowa cause it's now a ruby red state with a nut for a governor and 2 nut senators. I have no idea why the media is still caring about what DMR's poll says of Iowa.

[roamer65]

35. ...

Most of the young, liberal Iowans have left for the larger cities, like Chicago, etc, etc.

[Vinca]

36. I don't know, but it's kind of amusing the state is spending money on advertising to try to

get people to spend their vacation dollars in Iowa. No thanks. I can't imagine encountering any of the people CNN interviewed at that rally last night who believe things like the national debt being the lowest ever under Trump and apparently seeing no correlation between 700,000+ dead people and Covid mismanagement at the beginning of the nightmare. Iowa might as well bill itself as "fantasy" land.