I think I can take a breath
OK, I am cautiously optimistic on the COVID front. For the first time my model run (in real data mode) has a major subsiding by the end of December even with the holiday spreader events. It nailed last January's wave and the delta wave (5 months in advance). I noticed quite an uptick lately in southern states vaccinations according to the raw data. The vaccines are the current key. Now, there are plenty of variants of interest out there that could throw this progress out the window. Vaccinate the world is the answer. I will keep doing the research and develop the model because this is not the last pandemic we will see. I am now transitioning to an epidemic forecast mode and will be producing highly localized 1 month forecasts. I hope this respite is not fleeting. I am exhausted from developing and staring at lines of computer code nearly 24/7 for almost 2 years (I am a retired scientist so I do love modeling but whoa). If you have any interest in the newest localized forecasts (1km grid) I will be posting daily updates soon and will send out the links. Don't let your guard down, keep masking and encouraging others to vaccinate. Lots of work still left even if the model is correct. I have a lot of work to do to get the rest of the globes mitigation/vaccination strategies fully incorporated. Currently the other nations are treated homogeneously countrywide, while the US is down to the local level.
stay safe,
Joe
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