General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe 8 reasons why Qrump will not run in 2024
Reason one: he cant string two sentences together. Its worse than before. His voice its expressionless and monotone.
Reason two: the GOP will not want him, and this is a fact. It is also starting to show in various polls, although the craven one wishes that were not true.
Reason three: he will be in prison. Of course, technically, one can still run from prison. But the orange tumor will not.
Reason four: were he to run, hed have no social media as a platform. Twitter has been very clear that his ban is forever.
Reason number five: ego. This traitor will NEVER let even the possibility of losing happen. Some would say he is carefully setting the stage so he cannot lose. Im afraid I have to disagree. There is always a loser.
Reason six: hed have to work for it. Assolini has become lazy. Even at his rallies, he is no longer giving it his all. This will not change.
Reason seven: his health. The insurrectionist has had numerous health issues, which will only get worse as time goes by.
Reason number eight: he cant win. MAGA is thinning out. They may be loud, but they do not have strong numbers. I am not in denial the media is or at least the ones who chose to have fake discussions about an event filled with artifice which will never happen.
full article here......
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-is-out-of-gas/41968/
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)maxsolomon
(33,246 posts)we will not be rid of him that easy.
i agree that "the GOP" wants him gone; at least the party powers. they just don't have the guts to say it. mcconnell wants him gone, clearly.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,085 posts)They have given over to their worse instincts. Instincts to break rules, ignore laws, eliminate ethics. They needed the white racists. Now they know how to keep them.
Plus I think they are all partners with Putin. Maybe Romney and Cheney aren't, but look at how the are sidelined.
Edit to say, I hope and pray they are in the minority. But our insane system of making the majority of American the minority of the government always provides an opening.
maxsolomon
(33,246 posts)and there's the Old Guard represented by McConnell.
The Old Guard wants him gone, but they cannot say that.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,085 posts)"Lets call this what it is: unpatriotic. The Kentucky Republican is, arguably more than any other American, doing Russian President Vladimir Putins bidding."
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/15/business/rusal-russia-kentucky-aluminum-mill/index.html
"Russian aluminum giant Rusal spent most of last year under US sanctions. Now its pumping $200 million into a new project in Kentucky."
Interestingly, he won't allow Anericans to invest in Kentucky, but he will allow an adversary to do so. And his total devotion to destroying bipartisanship makes him an unpatriotic liar. Why won't the media expose this?
maxsolomon
(33,246 posts)Russia just wants the US paralyzed by internal strife; that gives them a free hand for Putin's revanchist agenda.
BTW, "The Media" you're complaining about is the same media that you linked. They did "expose" it; it just isn't the kind of story that gets traction.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,085 posts)It's a problem that most Americans believe it's the Fourth Estate. Noted though. If only the FCC would do their job and keep lies and conspiracy theories off the public airwaves. Leave them upto Alex Jones and others.
McConnell is apparently on the list of TFG targets. Pod Save America boys pointed out that this is being shouted by MAGA mobs.
https://www.salon.com/2021/10/11/why-donald-continues-to-be-a-major-thorn-in-mitch-mcconnells-side_partner/
LonePirate
(13,408 posts)Last edited Tue Oct 12, 2021, 09:30 PM - Edit history (1)
1. This does not matter to him, his base voters or anyone in his party. All they care about is his name on the ballot which will compel the crazies to vote red up and down the ticket.
2. The GOP definitely wants him as he is the only one who drive up the turnout they need. No one in the GOP speaks to the stupid, crazy, racist base like he does.
3. He will not be in prison. The DOJ, NY AG, GA AG and Fulton County DA have shown no inclination to charge, prosecute or imprison him. He will be a free man if he is not dead come November 2024.
4. He does not need social media. Cable news media give him plenty of face/voice time and his millions of sycophants still echo his words across social media for him. Even left wing media types pass around his press releases on social media and talk about him to nauseating degrees.
5. He does not fear losing because he wont lose the Electoral College vote again. He and the Repubs are installing lackeys into positions of power in various states to award him the states electoral votes even if he loses the popular vote in the state.
6. He did no work between 2017-2021 so why would this next time be any different? Hell go to an occasional rally to soak up the adulation from his cultists, spout his bullshit and call it a day like he has always done.
7. This is our only prospect of him not running. Father Time will need to catch up to him in order for him not to run.
8. He wont win fairly but he will win the Electoral College vote due to the reasons stated in #5 above.
Elessar Zappa
(13,909 posts)Unless Biden does something to fuck it up, hell beat Trump both in popular vote and electoral (assuming we all vote).
PortTack
(32,707 posts)Because they wont. Read the 14th and 15th amendments.
States have the right to run elections however they see fit- times, polling places etc. they cannot change popular vote totals or send alternate slates of electors..thats nonsense.
All these illegal unconstitutional laws are currently being challenged in the courts, and maybe not all of the law, but the most egregious parts will not stand
For updates follow Marc Elias and democracydocket.com
The numbers are not good for tfg! Only 44% of the gqp that support him currently amounts to 18.8% of the current electorate. You cant win on that
LonePirate
(13,408 posts)There is nothing in either amendment that requires states to award their electors to the popular vote winner and not to whoever the legislature wants to award them.
PortTack
(32,707 posts)https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/07/14/supreme-courts-faithless-electors-decision-validates-case-for-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact/
This.from a SCOTUS ruling 😞7/2020
The Courts decision reinforces the validity of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Under National Popular Vote, states that combine for at least 270 electoral votes agree to award their electors to the presidential candidate who wins the most individual votes across the nation. (Fifteen states and the District of Columbia, totaling 196 electoral votes, have already passed the measure.)
In the 18 states currently without faithless elector laws, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would operate in a manner identical to the system that they have been using for over 200 years. In these states (which currently use the state-by-state winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes), the presidential electors are chosen by the political party whose presidential candidate wins the popular vote
LonePirate
(13,408 posts)Unless a specific state law says that state must award its electors to the popular vote winner, then the state legislature can award the electors whoever it wants. Many states have laws to empower the legislature to award the electors but not how/why they award the electors. These insurrectionist Republicans are changing the how/why and there is no legal statute in these various states with red state legislatures to prevent them from doing what just that.
PortTack
(32,707 posts)See the link I included from the Brookings Institute regarding the SCOTUS ruling of 7/2020. This is the legal statute.
Federal elections are different than state elections and state laws do not supersede federal election law.
LonePirate
(13,408 posts)Yes, Dems put forth a set of electors and Repubs put forth a set; but it is the legislature that chooses which is the official voting set to be counted in the Electoral College. There is nothing binding the legislatures in AZ or GA or MI or WI or whatever battleground state to send the slate of electors from the party that won the popular vote in the state. That's what Repubs are doing stacking these state offices and legislatures with people who will only certify the Repub electors regardless by how many votes the Dem candidate wins the state.
PortTack
(32,707 posts)https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/07/14/supreme-courts-faithless-electors-decision-validates-case-for-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact/
The first link gives the clearest explanation..if you care to read it, its really quite concise
Crunchy Frog
(26,578 posts)In any event, we'll find out, one way or another. In 2024, unless Biden manages to lose the election outright.
No point in debating it further when actual events will soon answer the question for us.
Polybius
(15,335 posts)He looks and sounds super conservative, I was so surprised that he was liberal.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)... is real
Mad_Machine76
(24,394 posts)I just don't know. We are living in the worst timeline right now and I can't discount the possibility he will run again. The establishment GOP (or what's left of it) doesn't really want Trump but they're more or less powerless to stop him and will ease into supporting him if he runs again while they continue to block or interfere with investigations into his role in 01/06/21. If Trump doesn't run again himself, he will likely groom a replacement whom will have to be a slavish Trumpist unless a more establishment GOP candidate is able to get through a jungle primary.
Nictuku
(3,587 posts)Every article I just read this morning has to do with him. So sick of it. The best way to deal with this narcissist is to completely ignore him, but the media won't let us.
PortTack
(32,707 posts)global1
(25,224 posts)the American People don't like 'poor losers'.
Why is it that so many American's have rallied around this pathetic 'poor loser'?
His 'big lie' and his constant ramblings about how he feels he was robbed - clearly are pathetic - and portray him as a doddering old man that can't accept reality.
I don't know if he is up to running again in 2024 - because I don't think that he can face the fact that he might lose again.
With every day that passes. With every tell-all book that exposes his foibles, demeanor and his evil shortcomings. His base is dwindling.
By the time that 2024 rolls around - he won't be able to win an election.
The MSM keeps bucking him up because they see it as money in their pockets every time they talk Tr**p. It's time for the MSM to wean themselves off this evil cabal that is trying to end democracy and focus on how the MSM can save our democracy.
Aristus
(66,293 posts)They are inconsequential human beings who blew off getting an education, and are now stuck in the low-wage doldrums. They blame others for their insignificant lives.
They are angry, bad-tempered, poorly-socialized people who are unable, as a result, to form lasting and fulfilling career relationships. They blame others for this.
They are mean-spirited, uncompassionate, disempathetic people who are unable, as a result, to form relationships with people who are, leaving them in a miasma of bitterness. They blame others for this.
They lead miserable, pathetic, squalid lives of their own making, and blame others for it.
That's why they cling so strongly to Trump; because he's everything that they are, but his life at least has a tawdry, gilded veneer of success, so they live vicariously through him.
Celerity
(43,108 posts)Many of Palmer's claims are extremely debateable, if not outright false or at least extraordinarily unlikely.
These 3 are amongst the least credible (he at well over 90% approval with Rethugs, Twitter is not the only social media platform (hello ZuckBook), and I see nothing atm that looks like he will be in prison within the next 2 years):
LakeArenal
(28,803 posts)Many States requiring release of taxes to get on the ballot.
former9thward
(31,940 posts)Many legal experts think that is unconstitutional. States can't put restrictions on federal candidates. Also the only states that have passed laws like that are solid blue states so it would not matter to Trumpa anyway.
CrackityJones75
(2,403 posts)For example look at how Kanye West was unable to get on some states ballots.
former9thward
(31,940 posts)No matter what he may have said. And he did not fight restrictions in court. Those who are serious -- and have the money for court challenges -- generally have gotten themselves on the ballot.
Tetrachloride
(7,816 posts)FakeNoose
(32,587 posts)Pootie has nothing to gain by wasting any more time or money on Chump.
bullwinkle428
(20,628 posts)run in 2024.
I'll happily come back here and eat my words if this turns out to be untrue.
Johnny2X2X
(18,973 posts)No matter how many of these wishful thinking list people come up with, Trump is running again, he wants to get back into the WH more than he's ever wanted anything before.
hamsterjill
(15,220 posts)He cant stand to lose. He wont give up until hes in the Oval Office again or dead.
I know my preference.
FakeNoose
(32,587 posts)Chump is certain to lose, even if the Repukes all vote for him. Aren't they sick and tired of his lies, his dementia, his constant outrage and daily humiliations? If they aren't, then what is wrong with THEM?
There has to be somebody in their party that's a better prospect than Chump. Anybody?!
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)Marius25
(3,213 posts)People like him never do.
I also think Republicans will happily have him run, because he's the only candidate that the rabid cult base supports. No other Republican candidate has a cult following.
Trump could never string 2 sentences together, so I don't think that's a valid argument.
I'm iffy on the health thing. His health should be absolute garbage, but doesn't seem to be holding him back yet.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,551 posts)If Trump is alive, he will run
If he isnt incarcerated, he will be the nominee
If the GOP takes and keeps control of the house in 2024, he will be installed as president.
Whiskeytide
(4,459 posts)
someone else pays for. It allows him to get on the TV. It would probably get the SM bans lifted (at least in part). It helps protect him against prosecution because the DOJ will be labeled a political apparatus merely prosecuting a political opponent.
Most importantly it allows the grift to continue. If the deadline passes and he doesnt officially enter the race for the R nomination, his donations will immediately dry up. He will then officially be a nobody, or a has been. I dont think he could handle that. His people will convince him he can win with all the changes made in laws and personnel in key places. And even if he doesnt, look how easily he could shift to it was stolen - again, and then continue the grift.
There is virtually no downside for him if he runs again. None. If hes still alive, I think he certainly will.
Deep State Witch
(10,409 posts)Or have other health issues. Either that, or a significant number of MAGAts will be dead from COVID.
Initech
(100,039 posts)And yeah a large number of his base are anti-vax. They will most likely not survive to the 2024 election the way things are going, as morbid as that sounds!
former9thward
(31,940 posts)So how is this base going to die off?
COVID-19 Death Rate For Black Americans Twice That For Whites, New Report Says
Black Americans are becoming infected with the coronavirus at a rate three times that of whites and they are twice as likely to die from COVID-19, according to a new report from the National Urban League, based partly on data from Johns Hopkins University.
A key focus of Thursday's report is the impact of the pandemic and how the disease has followed the contours of the larger society in falling especially hard on Blacks, Latinos and Indigenous people.
State of Black America Unmasked paints a "bleak picture" of COVID-19 and people of color, the league's CEO, Marc Morial, said.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/13/902261618/covid-19-death-rate-for-black-americans-twice-that-for-whites-new-report-says
Yes, the report is roughly a year old but I have seen nothing to change it.
Initech
(100,039 posts)In counties where former President Donald Trump received at least 70% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election, COVID-19 has killed about 47 out of every 100,000 people since the end of June, health care analyst Charles Gaba tells the New York Times. But in counties where Trump won less than 32% of the vote, the number is a fraction of that about 10 out of 100,000.
The Times report featured in its morning newsletter on Monday also referred to a recent Pew Research Center poll looking at the political divide in vaccination rates, which found that 86% of Democratic voters had received at least one shot, compared with 60% of Republican voters.
The political divide over vaccinations is so large that almost every reliably blue state now has a higher vaccination rate than almost every reliably red state, notes the Times report.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/red-covid-coronavirus-deaths-are-highest-in-counties-with-the-largest-share-of-trump-voters-report-11632764116
So yeah how are they going to be expected to fight a civil war or even win an election when most of them are dead or dying from COVID?
former9thward
(31,940 posts)I am afraid no statistics back that up.
Initech
(100,039 posts)And that's mainly because most of them are refusing to get vaccinated. And this is at the same time they're praising Trump for "Operation: Warp Speed". But it's almost entirely anti-vaxxers who are going to the hospital currently and a large number of anti-vaxxers are also MAGA voters.
While it's not happening now, it's a matter of time. And they're giving the virus plenty of opportunities to mutate.
PortTack
(32,707 posts)95+% of all ICU covid deaths are unvaccinated..in other words tfg supporters, anti vaxx anti mask
former9thward
(31,940 posts)Overall the percent of White people who have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose (54%) was 1.2 times higher than the rate for Black people (46%) and 1.1 times higher than the rate for Hispanic people (51%) as of October 4, 2021. White people had a higher vaccination rate compared to Hispanic people in most reporting states, except Missouri, Vermont, Tennessee, DC, Nevada, New York, Virginia, Louisiana, South Carolina, Kansas, Texas, and Alabama. White people also had a higher rate than Black people in most reporting states, except Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Mississippi, Washington, Louisiana, and Alabama. The size of these differences varied widely across states, and they have been narrowing over time. The overall vaccination rate across states for Asian people was higher compared to White people (69% vs. 54%), which is consistent with the pattern in most reporting states. However, Asian people had lower vaccination rates than White people in six states (Colorado, Iowa, North Dakota, Utah, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota).
Though as of October 5, 2021, White people accounted for the largest share (60%) of people who are unvaccinated, Black and Hispanic people remain less likely than their White counterparts to have received a vaccine, leaving them at increased risk, particularly as the variant spreads. However, the data show that these disparities are narrowing over time, particularly for Hispanic people.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-by-race-ethnicity/
PortTack
(32,707 posts)That 60% is the same group that goes to tfg rallies and is an anti vaxxer anti masker..they go hand in hand. They arent democrats
former9thward
(31,940 posts)They are they largest group in the U.S. I think the rest of the information is more relevant.
PortTack
(32,707 posts)They are unvaccinated, anti maskers, cult members and make up the largest segment of deaths in the ICU from covid
FakeNoose
(32,587 posts)Our black Americans are getting vaccinated in the same or higher numbers than whites. They were just a little slower to get appointments back in the early Spring when the vaccines were first available. It wasn't because they didn't want the vaccine, but (maybe) white people were grabbier in getting the first appointments. I don't know.
former9thward
(31,940 posts)There still is a lag as of a week ago.
FakeNoose
(32,587 posts)... not what happened since the beginning of the year. The early numbers (Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr) showed few minorities getting the vaccine. Since late Spring and through the Summer, they've caught up compared to the white population. Probably by the end of 2021, the percentages will reach parity or maybe exceed the whites, unless something changes drastically.
Among the whites, just about everyone who wanted a vaccination has already gotten theirs. Among the minorities, a lot had to wait until the whites went first, and now they don't have to wait any more.
Deep State Witch
(10,409 posts)POC in "Red States" also don't have as many opportunities to get vaccinated because there are fewer clinics in their areas. And, their employers are less likely to give them paid time off to recover from the side effects - which normally take 24-48 hours.
ecstatic
(32,653 posts)Otherwise, he's running unless someone locks his ass up.
MurrayDelph
(5,292 posts)If he announced his candidacy, he had to turn over control of his PAC to someone else.
hamsterjill
(15,220 posts)Trump doesnt believe rules apply to him and Im still waiting for someone to tell him they do. And mean it.
He was supposed to divest of his business holdings when he took office. Yeah, right.
Doodley
(9,041 posts)Vinca
(50,237 posts)The only thing that keeps him from running is death. If he happened to see prison - which he won't because he skates on everything - he'd run from prison. And the cult would vote for him. As long as the cult is with him, the GOP is with Trump.
lame54
(35,262 posts)themaguffin
(3,820 posts)SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)LiberalFighter
(50,783 posts)It will cost him more to run than to not run. He is able to milk more out of his followers now than he would if he ran again.
WarGamer
(12,354 posts)Celerity
(43,108 posts)Delphinus
(11,825 posts)He has a social media platform in Fox, OAN, and Newsmax - plus CSPAN, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, and CBS. Until they refuse to give him that platform, they are part of the problem.
Xolodno
(6,384 posts)But after he's grifted several million, he'll drop out due to "health reasons" and leave the GOP scrambling for a new candidate and no money to mount an effective campaign. They'll ask several to fall on the sword...who does? Remains to be seen.
LetMyPeopleVote
(144,921 posts)GoCubsGo
(32,075 posts)He's broke, his hundreds of millions of dollars in debt will be coming due before then, and nobody is interested in loaning him more to cover them. Many of his creditors have already been trying to collect. That's where most of the money that the MAGA dupes have been sending his PAC is going. Once he announces his campaign, he can legally no longer put that money in his own pocket. He'll certainly flaunt the campaign finance laws if he does run, but I'm sure his opponents in his own party would tolerate it. Not sure his debtors want to be a part of it, either.
LetMyPeopleVote
(144,921 posts)LetMyPeopleVote
(144,921 posts)SayItLoud
(1,701 posts)He runs for Senate in Flori-duh? I think he would win.
Uses Senate to raise visibility and cause havoc greater than being on the sidelines.
Resigns to run for potus
Just sayin...egos are egos.
KS Toronado
(17,152 posts)But I could be wrong, been there before.
Polybius
(15,335 posts)Let me explain:
2) While I agree with you 100% that many GOP elites don't want him, it doesn't matter. Even more so in 2016, they didn't want him. He won the nomination anyway.
8) This I disagree with. I think he's very popular with the GOP voters, they still by and large like him. If the primary was today, he would crush his GOP opponents. As for the general election, as crazy as it might sound, his approval rating is back up to about 43%, where it was for most of his Presidency. Biden's approval rating is slightly higher, but is within the margen of error.