Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and

[Edim]

Last edited Wed Oct 13, 2021, 06:13 PM - Edit history (1)

...2947 counties in the United States

"Vaccines currently are the primary mitigation strategy to combat COVID-19 around the world. For instance, the narrative related to the ongoing surge of new cases in the United States (US) is argued to be driven by areas with low vaccination rates [1]. A similar narrative also has been observed in countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom [2]. At the same time, Israel that was hailed for its swift and high rates of vaccination has also seen a substantial resurgence in COVID-19 cases [3]. We investigate the relationship between the percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases across 68 countries and across 2947 counties in the US."



https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

[elleng]

1. Findings

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.

Across the US counties too, the median new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the last 7 days is largely similar across the categories of percent population fully vaccinated (Fig. 2). Notably there is also substantial county variation in new COVID-19 cases within categories of percentage population fully vaccinated. There also appears to be no significant signaling of COVID-19 cases decreasing with higher percentages of population fully vaccinated (Fig. 3).

Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as “High” Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classified as “High” transmission. Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classified as “low” transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%.

Since full immunity from the vaccine is believed to take about 2 weeks after the second dose, we conducted sensitivity analyses by using a 1-month lag on the percentage population fully vaccinated for countries and US counties. The above findings of no discernable association between COVID-19 cases and levels of fully vaccinated was also observed when we considered a 1-month lag on the levels of fully vaccinated (Supplementary Figure 1, Supplementary Figure 2).

We should note that the COVID-19 case data is of confirmed cases, which is a function of both supply (e.g., variation in testing capacities or reporting practices) and demand-side (e.g., variation in people’s decision on when to get tested) factors.


Interpretation

The sole reliance on vaccination as a primary strategy to mitigate COVID-19 and its adverse consequences needs to be re-examined, especially considering the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant and the likelihood of future variants. Other pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions may need to be put in place alongside increasing vaccination rates. Such course correction, especially with regards to the policy narrative, becomes paramount with emerging scientific evidence on real world effectiveness of the vaccines.'>>>

((Swell, shoot us NOW.))

[hlthe2b]

8. No. Don't misinterpret this. The studies' own author has derided the Anti-vaxxer's manipualtion of

his own findings. See my post downstream (#7)

[Scrivener7]

2. I'm not interested enough in this to read through it and find where the bullshit originates,

but I feel certain there is bullshit in there. Much like the much touted "IVERMECTIN WORKS" study out of Bangladesh that is a favorite of the Q crowd but which actually tested Ivermectin in combination with anti-virals that we already use against Covid. (With this study, my eye was drawn to the fact that international data was taken from an organization called "Our World in Data." Apparently, this is a charity based in England and Wales. A charity?)

The problem may be as simple as the fact that, yes, Delta is spreading fast in highly vaxxed areas, but it is spreading mostly among non-vaccinated people.

Which, duh.

Anyway, I feel certain that someone else will find the weakness in this article. However, the problem will be that republiQans will spread this far and wide and the rebuttal will be read by no one.

[Edim]

3. A Harvard Study Is Going Viral Among Anti-Vaxxers. The Author Says They Are All Wrong.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/10/subramanian-harvard-covid-vaccines/

[Hugh_Lebowski]

6. The Deep State/Gates/Soros/Clinton/Fauci consortium must've GOTTEN TO HIM!

Probably threatened his family!1!!1!

[hlthe2b]

7. The study's author (Subramanian) has derided the anti-vaxxers misinterpeting his findings.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/10/subramanian-harvard-covid-vaccines/

Alas, there’s just one problem for Horowitz and company: S.V. Subramanian, the Harvard professor of population health and geography behind the paper, says the vaccine doubters are completely wrong.

“That conclusion is misleading and inaccurate,” Subramanian told me of Horowitz’s Blaze column over email. “This paper supports vaccination as an important strategy for reducing infection and transmission, along with hand-washing, mask-wearing, and physical distancing.”

At first glance, the title of Subramanian’s paper, “Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States,” looks like it could be arguing against vaccine effectiveness. Indeed, the paper initially came onto my radar from a concerned tipster who worried an unscrupulous Harvard researcher was working to leverage the university’s name in the service of right-wing political aims.

But on closer inspection, Subramanian’s paper, which was published in the ​​peer-reviewed European Journal of Epidemiology, simply examines the lack of correlation between broad geographies’ vaccination rates and their rates of new COVID cases. For example, Subramanian points to countries like Israel, which have high rates of both vaccination and new infections. But instead of concluding that such data means vaccines are useless, Subramanian says his findings suggest that it’s unwise to ignore other treatments and precautionary steps—say, masks or lockdowns. In other words, he writes, the “sole reliance on vaccination as a primary strategy to mitigate COVID-19 and its adverse consequences needs to be re-examined… other pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions may need to be put in place alongside increasing vaccination.”

Over email, Subramanian insisted that the positive effects of vaccines are not in doubt: “Other research has clearly and definitively established that the vaccines significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization and mortality.”

[Pobeka]

11. While I'm glad he issued this rebuttal. Putting study limitations up front in the paper is better.

Anti vaxxers and their ilk will never see the rebuttal.

[Scrivener7]

19. Yet he chose a title for his study that was obviously going to lead people to the wrong conclusion.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

4. Doesn't seem that shocking ... primary value of the vaccine is preventing severe cases

There may be more transmission going on in highly vaccinated areas by virtue of people interacting more, feeling 'safer', etc.

Show me that hospitalization and death rates no longer track with vaccination of individuals ... and I'll start to freak out then.

[BoomaofBandM]

5. I understood the vaccines At the least are to lessen the severity of covid.

Like many others we are double vaccinated and still avoid crowds and wear masks. My hope is to not end up on a vent and/or dead. I hope others don't read it as an excuse to not get the vaccine.

[Pobeka]

9. Wow. You don't suppose population density plays a role?

Or, perhaps unvaxxed folks tend to congregate, so vaccination rate can be meaningless.
Or, perhaps there is some natural immunity that lingers for a while.
Or, perhaps each of these counties is at a different phase of infection.

This does look like the coarsest possible analysis, and making those country by country (and county by county) comparisons using only vaccinate rate only is really lazy, inappropriate and misleading IMO.

on edit:
AND -- as some upstream folks pointed out, cases no longer is an appropriate metric -- severe cases would be better, and hospitilizations better yet.

[PSPS]

10. This indicates is that it's foolish to "party like it's over" with unvaccinated still on the loose

The headline should say, "Increases in COVID-19 are related to levels of unvaccinated." Being vaccinated helps mitigate the illness if you get infected but the anti-vax anti-mask MAGA contingent is certain to keep this going regardless of vaccination levels at least until vaccination rate is over 90%.

The vaccination rate for measles is well over 90% and Covid is far more contagious than measles.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

12. After further consideration this data does suggest one concerning thing to me

To whit: It does suggest that eliminating C19 as a disease ... solely through vaccination ... is unlikely to work.

At least not this ones we're now using.

We can cut down on how sick people get and/or die from the disease, but this study does kinda suggest we're on our way to an 'endemic' situation ... which means a lot of people carrying it, and hence a decent chance for highly negative mutations to develop, etc.

It's still a concerning finding, even if many anti-vaxxers are misreading it to some extent. Esp. if a large swath of the public is going to 'act as if' they're perfectly safe ... just because they're vaxxed.

But I'm not an expert, so ... this is my guess.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

13. The vaccines certainly mitigate the risks...

... as shown in several other studies.

If some countries are also interacting more with outsiders, I'd think that could be a factor as well.

I looked at a world map of air traffic last year, when Africa was barely affected by Covid at all, and I was shocked by the lack of air travel to and from that entire continent. I figured it wouldn't be nearly as busy as the USA, China, England, Israel and many other parts of the world... but the difference was mind-blowing for me.

Edit: And the MANY flights seen flying between China and the USA at that time, like a long and unbroken line of worker ants, was happening during the period after Trump lied (yet another example) that he'd banned travel from China. Obviously not!

[Raven123]

14. Poorly written. Simplistic view of a complex issue.

[cadoman]

15. correlation is not causation 101

But what on earth is Israel doing way up there?

I think people are enjoying playing with all this real-time, worldwide data, but it's critical to keep in mind that the way things are done from region to region can be dramatically different. The products used are different. The hospital staff training is different. The diets and seasons are different. etc. etc. etc.

We have a few red states here in the US, for instance, that have literally been falsifying records from the get go.

[LisaL]

16. Israel had a wave, but their cases are going down now.

NT

[Buckeye_Democrat]

17. Israel was doing great until travelers from Delta-ravaged...

... India showed up there in the Spring.

The Israeli government was angry about so many of those travelers testing positive, but apparently only after they had disembarked within their country.

[LisaL]

18. The big problem with such an analysis is that

some countries test a lot and others, well, not so much.
So that would skew the results.

[Farmer-Rick]

20. Several problems with this study as I see it

The headline is misleading in that the study is about levels of infections and not hospitalizations or deaths. So, no those dying and being hospitalized are still over 90 percent unvaccinated.

They only looked at the end of August and the beginning of September 2021. This is the biggest flaw.

This means the Delta variant has already gone through the population. Those people who remained alive are mostly vaccinated. That scews the results and the population they are looking at is no longer at the same rate of vaccination as before the Delta variant went through the population. Also possible natural immunity after having survived the Delta variant will also impact this study.

And the vaccine is wearing off and more vaccinated are getting infected. We knew this was happening. That's why the booster shots.

And many states and countries aren't testing for infections like they were before the Delta variant.

I look forward to seeing scientific reviews of this study.