Covid football stadium boom not materializing

[empedocles]

''POLITICO Nightly logo
BY TYLER WEYANT

Presented by Charter Communications

FUMBLE — The No. 3 and No. 4 college football teams in the country had just ended their nationally televised game in Iowa City. Tens of thousands of screaming, and perhaps intoxicated, students rushed the field. A University of Iowa epidemiologist — wearing blue and white thanks to her Pennsylvania upbringing — watched from her basement and worried.

“It looked like an outdoor super spreader event,” Christine Petersen said of the end of Saturday’s Penn State-Iowa game. “I thought I was watching it.”

Iowa Hawkeyes fans storm the field after the matchup against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Kinnick Stadium on Oct. 9 in Iowa City, Iowa.
Iowa Hawkeyes fans storm the field after the matchup against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Kinnick Stadium on Oct. 9 in Iowa City, Iowa. | Matthew Holst/Getty Images

Yet the early data she’s examined hasn’t shown much of an effect at all. The University of Iowa has been doing dorm-sewage testing since last spring. Although there have been some positive cases this season, tests haven’t registered any severe spikes.

In a football season that’s seen its fair share of crazy events ( Alabama loses! Student journalists watching practices from atop tall buildings! Fake injuries!), one of the craziest may be what hasn’t occurred: the fierce spread of Covid driven by college football that was predicted by experts when the season began.

The headlines were clear. CNN: “College football fans and traditions are back, even with Covid-19 still here.” The AP: “Crowded stadiums, pandemic create combustible mix this fall.” NBC News: “College football season is here. And so is the delta variant.” Um, POLITICO: The newsletter you are reading right now, on Sept. 8, said, “Public health officials fear packed stadiums, raucous tailgate parties and crowded bars could be tinder for the Delta variant.”

And now that we’re a month-plus into the season? “We’re not seeing it,” Petersen said. “You would catch population spikes, and there is no spike happening.”

A University of Florida release this week was blunt: “So far, COVID-19 spikes from college football games haven’t materialized,” with UF epidemiologist Cindy Prins noting “some of these outdoor events really are not the super spreader events that people have worried they’re going to be.”

The low transmission rate on football Saturdays this fall adds to the growing data showing that outdoor activities are safer. Study after study has assessed case spread at outdoor events to be significantly lower than at indoor events. Lollapalooza, the Chicago music festival, saw thousands attend, fully vaccinated, with few reported cases afterward.

Outdoor events that have seen large spreads of Covid, such as the Sturgis Motorcycle rally earlier this year, have various additional factors that play into the spread, such as large unvaccinated populations attending , plus lots of indoor drinking at bars.

Indoor parties on campus are leading to outbreaks at the University of Iowa, Petersen said.

. . .

Most important, the pandemic is unlikely to be over when the national championship trophy is awarded in early 2022. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine, says the relationship between Covid and college football is still a bit murky.

“Could SEC games have contributed to the terrible Delta surge in the South in September and early October? I suppose that’s possible,” Hotez wrote in an email. “Was it lessened by high vaccination coverage among the educated and students at major universities?

“I still think we’ll see a fifth wave as we head into November-December. So we’re not done.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at [e-mail]. Or contact tonight’s author at [e-mail] or on Twitter at @tweyant.''

[Doc Sportello]

1. This is good news!

Let's celebrate and hope it is a continuing trend made possible by the diligence of the Biden administration and the work of health professionals. Yes, let's add the caveats but we need more good news going forward.

[jcgoldie]

2. Preponderance of evidence that covid rarely spreads outdoors

Got lambasted here a month ago for making that argument based on the study done on those in attendance at Lollapalooza Chicago which was referenced in this article. Evidence from outdoor sporting events gives further credence ... Fire away but you cant be the party that follows the science and then ignore all evidence that outdoor events pose extremely low threat of spreading the virus.

[greenjar_01]

3. The Cassandra Crew is going to froth at this one

[Saboburns]

4. Sep, 4, 2021 I went to the Navy- Marshall football game in Annapolis, I tested COVID + Sep. 6th

Of course I had Moderna vax x 2, but suffered 5 days of symptoms including body aches, sneezing, runny nose, dry cough, loss of smell and taste, severe fatigue, but luckily no fever and my lungs were not affected. Just sort of like a severe head cold. I learned I don't want to face this virus unvaccinated (shudder). COVID is a serious killer.

Anyway, I just wanted to say that I caught COVID at a college football game. We are still certainly in the middle of a pandemic so don't let your guard down like I did. Be safe y'all.

[empedocles]

8. Agree. Keep the guards up.

[StarryNite]

11. Thank you for telling your experience.

Too many people are getting the wrong idea that we can go back to normal. Thankfully you were vaccinated.

[Hortensis]

5. Yes, very good news, and let's hope it holds into winter.

Many of those attending are now vaccinated, and that's no doubt part of it, as well as the decline in cases in general from vaccination. Many of the workplace mandates aren't yet fully in effect but will be.

[empedocles]

7. Agree. Hope it holds into winter past flu season.

The South outbreak may be related to vaccination rates.

[Hortensis]

9. Flu season! I'm afraid for our part of rural GA. Vax rates are bad. nt

[Celerity]

6. Really good news. Glad to see this.

[Tomconroy]

10. We knew this from the experience of Major League

Baseball all summer long. But many people still won't believe it

[Amishman]

12. Weather matters, for that game it was sunny with a steady breeze

UV destroys the virus and a decent wind keeps turning over the air

[Patton French]

13. More proof that the vaccines work..

As if we needed more proof.

[Stallion]

14. 4 Months Ago-79% of College Educated Had Received at Least 1 Vaccination

probably over 85% by now

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-june-2021/

[empedocles]

18. Thats great, though I wonder about some of the southern college students?

[BannonsLiver]

15. Our resident clout chasers were so sure it would.

And by “sure” I mean HOPING it would.

[helpisontheway]

16. We attended a college football game at my son's college with a full stadium

of about 22,000. 99% of the people there did not have a mask. We wore our KN95 masks.

[NurseJackie]

17. What's the logic behind restaurants with "outdoor" seating areas...

... that are ACTUALLY fully-enclosed party-tents. It's unclear why this is fooling people.

[BlackSkimmer]

20. I think many pointed that out at President Obama's birthday bash.

I don’t get how a tent is “outside”.

[NurseJackie]

21. An open-air gazebo (something to keep the rain and mist off the diners)...

... that makes sense. Something to keep the leaves and bird droppings out of the food... fine. But enclosed is enclosed.

[themaguffin]

19. I haven't been anywhere, am debating seeing the Stones in Atl, but it's the stadium roof likely won'

be open, so I don't know what to think it.