How likely are we to lose Virginia?

[Drunken Irishman]

I still feel McAuliffe will win by a fairly okay margin (5+) but I'm not sure if I'm just being naive, as the polls there have it much tighter overall, as the current RCP average has it at 2.2 for McAuliffe.

Could this be like California where a late shift gives him a sizable win...or is there a chance he loses?

[Lovie777]

1. I don't know about Virginia . . .

But in California, Newsom was never going to be recalled no matter what the eff corporate media spewed out.

[Polly Hennessey]

5. Precisely. And did they ever try. Many

outside California fell for their media hype.

[qazplm135]

2. depends on NOVA

if turnout there is significantly down, he loses.

[DET]

9. Sad But True

Exactly. It concerns me that Youngkin is trying to use Critical Race Theory to rile up the more distant suburbs like Loudoun. CRT is (or at least should be) a non issue, especially since almost no one knows what it is. I don’t know how anyone could justify sitting out this critical election, but it’s unpredictable.

[neverforget]

3. Assuming McAuliffe wins by 1 or 5, the media narrative will be the Dems are in disarray

and why didn't he win by more? Newsom crushed the recall effort and the media was like "why didn't he win by more?"

[MFM008]

4. Exactly

Unless he wins by 30 points its all upcoming
Democrat disaster time.....

[empedocles]

6. trump, the erratic variable, may weigh in affecting the probabilities

[Sibelius Fan]

7. Not likely

[denbot]

8. One thing that isn't in the calculations is VA's military vote.

I was stationed there long ago, there are tons of bases out there, and outside of a hardcore following that is and will always be there for RW'ers, but the military vote under performed relative to 2016. For the GOP, this could be signaling a significant break off to Biden over TFG last election.

If the active/retired are peeling off, then other's considered moderate or independent are likely following suit.

[Elessar Zappa]

10. There's always a possibility he'll lose but

I predict he’ll win by a 5-7% margin.