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Thu Oct 21, 2021, 08:12 AM

Remember the 35 day Dec. 2018 - January 2019 government shut down, and who the public blamed?

Trump was insisting on funding for his wall and forced a government shut down over it. There's a good overview on the prolonged impasse here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federalgovernment_shutdown

The resulting chaos and disruptions in the government ended up hurting Trump and Republicans, who took the brunt of the blame for the shutdown and its consequences. Or did it really? By the middle of January 2019 Trump's approval rating was at its lowest point since February 2018. A Washington Post–ABC News poll published on January 13, 2019, found that a larger number of Americans blamed Trump and congressional Republicans than congressional Democrats for the shutdown. A PBS NewsHour–Marist poll found that on January 15, 2019, a majority of Americans thought that President Trump was to blame for the shutdown.

A few months later the entire crisis was in America's rear view mirror. While Gallop showed Trump with an approval to disapproval score of 37/59 for the week of January 21- 27 2019, by April 17 - 30 his Gallop approval to disapproval rating had rebounded to 46/50. One year after the trashing that public approval polls gave Trump in January 2019 (or to be more precice in polling that took place between 1/16 - 1/29/20) Gallop had Trump with an approval to disapproval rating of 49/50. At no time during his presidency did Trump receive an approval number higher than 49%.

We are over a year out from the 2022 Congressional midterm elections. We are over three years out from the next Presidential election. A snap shot of public opinion taken today while uncertainties over the fate of President Biden's legislative agenda for America dominates the headlines, is essentionally meaningless.

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Reply Remember the 35 day Dec. 2018 - January 2019 government shut down, and who the public blamed? (Original post)
Tom Rinaldo Oct 21 OP
Drunken Irishman Oct 21 #1
Tom Rinaldo Oct 21 #2
doc03 Oct 21 #4
Tom Rinaldo Oct 21 #5
Drunken Irishman Oct 21 #6
doc03 Oct 21 #3
Tom Rinaldo Oct 21 #7

Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Thu Oct 21, 2021, 08:28 AM

1. Americans have a short-term memory.

This is why the GOP gets away with these stunts because they know there is plenty of time for the American people to forget and move on.

The fact is, at the end of the day, when Americans go to the polls, they almost always vote on emotion rather than logic. And if that emotion is anger, it's typically the party in power who feels it, especially in midterm elections.

With the Democrats controlling both chambers of congress, plus the White House, regardless how factual their arguments may be, if there is a major downturn in anything caused by Republican inaction, they'll still get the blame in November, 2022.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 21, 2021, 08:46 AM

2. Yep.

Conversely, if for example the pandemic is notably in retreat by next Summer and the public is experiencing a collective sigh of relief, that will play to Democrats advantage. Same thing regarding the economy. If supply lines are restored by then and goods are back on the shelf, the woes experienced over shortages now will long be forgotten.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 21, 2021, 08:56 AM

4. If what you say happens they will have half the country convinced

Democrats caused all of the above problems. As of now they have millions of people thinking Dr. Fauchi caused the pandemic.
President Biden is causing inflation and the labor shortage.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 21, 2021, 09:07 AM

5. They will have 40% of the country convinced of that despite all evidence to the contrary

45% of the country will see otherwise, and the rest will be in play. Under that scenario (if the elections are not screwed with too badly - a big if) it would be advantage Democrats. Trumpster ideology controls a minority of the electorate, between 35 to 40%. Anti-Trumpster voters outnumber them in total. Neither side has a secure majority.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 21, 2021, 09:47 AM

6. Agreed. That's the big test.

Next year is likely to define Biden's reelection odds as well. If the economy booms, and COVID starts to get undercontrol, they'll benefit.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Thu Oct 21, 2021, 08:47 AM

3. Republicans had Fox News and control hundreds of right wing radio

talk shows. Now it is even worse they have even have more cable news channels.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 21, 2021, 05:16 PM

7. But his base hasn't expanded, just his hold on the GOP due to fanatic primary voters n/t

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