VA early vote estimate: Dem voters: 54.7% Repub voters: 30.4%

[honest.abe]

Tom Bonier, who runs the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, estimates that 54.7 percent of those who have cast ballots already are Democratic voters and 30.4 percent are Republican voters. That’s a bigger advantage than President Biden built in 2020, when early Democratic voters outnumbered early Republican voters by a 9-point edge.

But the overall share of voters casting early votes is likely to be lower than the share who did so in 2020.

Last year, the 2.8 million early votes cast represented almost 63 percent of total ballots cast. This year, the total early vote — likely to land somewhere around 850,000 votes — is probably going to wind up as closer to a third of total ballots cast.

So McAuliffe has probably built a higher wall among early voters, but the Election Day wave is going to be taller than it was last year.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579010-what-virginias-early-vote-tells-us-about-a-tight-as-a-tick-governors-race

That's a huge lead going into election day, but lets hope VA Dems who havent voted yet also show up on election day to make sure we win this thing.

[Lovie777]

1. I think TM and across board will win . ..

let GQP start spouting voter fraud. Fuck them.

[PortTack]

16. They already are! Saw some ridiculous gqp woman ranting about it. Setting up more voter fraud

Nonsense

Does say one thing...they know they are losing

[peggysue2]

21. The howls started a good ten days ago

Levin on his radio show was ranting about Dems stealing the election, huff-huff, as well as a Repug state senator saying she had proof that the Democrats were up to no good and had passed the info along to the Youngkin campaign.

Doesn't make them sound too confident, enthusiasm factor or not.

The early voting trends have them spooked.

Let's hope that holds.

[GoodRaisin]

56. Levin

just makes up shit as he goes. That goon is as big a liar as TFG himself. Anyone who takes that man seriously is brainwashed beyond hope.

[FBaggins]

2. Not as huge a lead as you might think

Note that the lead (24.3%) is actually lower than the 26% lead estimated in the Fox poll that showed Youngkin winning by 8 points.

Election day GOTV needs to be spectacular. Or we need Targetsmart to eat their estimates when the real numbers come in (note that they predicted a possible Trump win in VA last year... so it could happen)

[Lovie777]

3. Apparently fake news had a model of 80% white and 11% blacks for that surge . ..

[FBaggins]

4. Which makes this even worse

Assuming Targetsmart knows what they're doing... this means that we're underperforming even an estimate that leans heavily republican.

[PortTack]

17. The turn out is larger than in '17...which was big. Doesn't say underperforming

[FBaggins]

22. '17 was not big given the changed environment

It’s tiny compared to last year.

Which is the appropriate comparison? We’ll know in three days.

[triron]

5. What does this Fox poll base that huge swing on anyway? Sounds improbable to me.

[FBaggins]

6. It was a polled issue

They asked if you had already voted and reported one number for those who said yes and another for those who said that they were voting on election day.

Note that the swing is what we experienced last November. Biden (and Democrats in general) did much better in early voting than on election day. The question is only how large that gap will be and what proportion of the eventual electorate will be voting on Tuesday.

[honest.abe]

7. Why focus on that Fox news poll??

This article is comparing numbers from Biden's win last year where Dem vote was only a 9% advantage in early voting. Granted that was a larger percent of total but these numbers are a sure indication of things going TM's way so far. The Bumpkin vote will have to be massive on election day to make up the big lead McAuliffe has already accumulated. I think it will be close but Terry will likely win this.

This is why GOPer talking points lately are all about McAuliffe stealing the election. They think he is going to win.

[Lovie777]

8. It would have to be off the carts concerning GQP . .

GQP polling outfits sprew republican most of the time.

[FBaggins]

11. Where did you hear that 2020 was only a 9% advantage in early voting?

That would mean that Democrats actually did better on election day than in early voting (remember that Biden won the state by a tad over 10%).

That would be very unusual compared to early voting statistics in the rest of the country.

Why compare it to the Fox poll? Because they included estimates of the early vote so far. Have you seen a poll with McAuliffe ahead and an estimate of early voting that's worse than this (indicating that McAuliffe is doing better than needed for victory)?

[honest.abe]

12. The article above

That’s a bigger advantage than President Biden built in 2020, when early Democratic voters outnumbered early Republican voters by a 9-point edge.

[Me.]

14. THose Numbers Are Not So Far Off For The Dems In Years Past

Federal elections
Year Republicans Democrats
2020 44.00% 1,962,430 54.44% 2,413,568
2016 44.33% 1,769,443 49.75% 1,981,473
2012 47.28% 1,822,522 51.16% 1,971,820
2008 46.33% 1,725,005 52.63% 1,959,532

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Right. But Biden won Virginia by 9.4 points (54.11 to 44).

According to the US Election Project, 2,736,282 voted early - either by mail or in person.

That's out of 4,460,524 people, so, roughly 61% of the state voted early.

If Biden won the early voting by 9%, that means he would have essentially tied same-day voting for that overall margin to barely budge despite the addition of 39% more votes.

That would go against pretty much every trend we saw nationwide where Biden won the early vote overwhelmingly and lost the same-day vote overwhelmingly.

Is it possible? Yeah, I guess. But it'd be pretty improbable as I don't think there was a state, whether blue or red, that Biden won same-day voting.

What is more likely is that Biden won roughly 60% of the early vote (1,641,769) and maybe 30% of the same-day vote (517,272), which is not far off what he won the state with: 2,413,568 votes total and 60% and then 30% of same-day voting equals out to about 2,159,041, so, a difference of 254,527 votes.

So, I definitely think it's safe to say, based on other state trends from 2020, that Biden won early voting in Virginia with 60%+ vote - probably around 63-64% and then around 30% for same-day vote. If that's the case, Youngkin is far out-performing Trump here. Which he probably is as I doubt McAuliffe wins by 9%. So, the question is: by how much?

[Polybius]

20. Fox News has some of the best polls out there

For some reason, they haven't been biased. They were also the only poll showing Roy Moore would lose in that December 2017 special election.

[FBaggins]

24. It's hard to believe that this one is

Several polls have put the race at a dead heat with the momentum clearly pulling against us… but 8 points?

[peggysue2]

25. That remains to be seen

After Fox fired their main statistics guy because he and the team called Arizona early (and accurately) in 2020. Remember the stink Trump made? So yes, in the past Fox has produced pretty accurate polling.

But now?

Wouldn't put money on it.

We shall see.

[Drunken Irishman]

40. That statistician isn't their polling outfit, tho.

You're thinking of Chris Stirewalt, who was a commentator who analyzed polling trends but was NOT the guy responsible for their polling.

Arnon Mishkin, who still remains at FOX News, is the head of their decision desk and was the one who called Arizona for Biden. He was also the one who created VoteCast, which FOX News uses as their exit polls.

FOX News uses, like many media outlets, a joint effort between a Democratic source (in this instance, Beacon Research) and Republican source (Shaw & Company Research) for their polling.

It's the same company who produced the polls in 2020. But I don't think polling is reliable anyway. FOX News' state polls overestimated Biden a lot in 2020.

[honest.abe]

26. Yeah, I realize that but I still can't trust anything associated with Fox Newz

[Drunken Irishman]

39. FOX News' polling was off in 2020.

They had Biden out-performing his wins by a wide margin (like in Michigan where they had him up 14 or Pennsylvania where he was up 5 in their final poll).

They were middle of the pack in 2020 according to the WP:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/25/which-2020-election-polls-were-most-least-accurate/

That's not to say they're not good, either. I just think polling is becoming increasingly unreliable.

As for 2017, you're right they projected Jones would win - but they were waaaaaay off on the margin. They had Jones winning by 10. he won by 1.5. If you factor in MOE, Monmouth was the most accurate of the final polls, as they had the race tied - while a November poll from the Washington Post was actually the most accurate overall, as they had Jones winning by +3.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html

[FakeNoose]

9. I'm guessing a lot of the Dem votes are mailed ballots?

If that's the case, they won't be in the first voting results. They'll start counting mailed ballots after the polls close at 9 or whatever time. It's going to be the same BS we had last year ... starts out with high Repuke numbers and they keep going down while the Dem votes gradually get added in.

Look for this to happen in every state - Repukes screaming that they "won" and then it was stolen from them!

[triron]

10. Just hope the mailed ballots get counted (the 'DeJoy' effect).

[honest.abe]

13. No doubt.

But who cares as long as we win.

[mopinko]

15. comparisons to last year are bogus on their face.

we're in a whole different universe. i suspect that having dejoy still in the chair will cause a lot of people to come out on election day. esp as there are known issues as we speak.

historical comparisons are pretty useless at this point, imho.

[triron]

18. Covid is still strong. Why should it be so different anyway? DeJoy was there in 2020.

[mopinko]

19. yes, dejoy is still there. it's not safe to mail your ballot.

covid is still strong, but at least most dems are vaxxed. that makes a big difference.

if i lived in va, i would be looking forward to showing up on tuesday w my middle finger held high.
i wouldnt be surprised if others are feeling that way.
i dont think everyone is dying keep using mail in or early voting forever. i like to be there on the day.

[Drunken Irishman]

41. I am not sure if you've left the house at all but clearly it's a different vibe outside...

...compared to a year ago.

A year ago, no sports were being held in front of crowds. Like, at all. Today? Every stadium, even in liberal California, has live audiences. Concerts are going strong. Restaurants are open again. It's night and day compared to where we were a year ago.

Here's a Lakers game from last year:



Here's a game from the other night:



Nothing is the same as it was last year. You can debate whether that's a good thing or not - but it's not remotely similar.

[honest.abe]

34. Of course there are differences but I do think some basic trends will be the same.

I am feeling more and more confident lately. I think Dumpkin may have peaked too soon.

[sunonmars]

23. Nobody knows what the turnout in a off year election is, so until the actual votes come in

we won't know anything, all this tells me right now is that of the vote in so far, the Dem vote is 24% higher than the GOP.....and that is good to see. Early votes are good banked votes because anything can happen on an election day and your voters may not bother showing up.

[NurseJackie]

27. I drove from Maryland through VA on US-17 this weekend...

... I can report that this entire area (all the way to Newport News) is littered with Youngkin yard signs, big and small. About 95% Youngkin and a few scattered McAuliffe signs.

It was disappointing to see.

But it's also disappointing to see how many people proudly fly their Confederate Battle Flags. There was one HUGE official flag of the Confederacy hanging from a 50' high flag pole. Along the way it was most small "X" confederate flags displayed on roadside mailboxes, or from flagpoles attached to front doors, or simply attached with a staple gun to the frame of their lean-to front porch.

There are many many many miles of backward, poor, and racist counties in Virginia. Sad.

[triron]

30. Probably rural area with low pop. density.

[honest.abe]

33. Yeah I saw same thing about a month ago driving from DC to Virginia Beach.

Dumbkin signs and ads everywhere and very very few for TM. But it may not matter since we have a huge advantage with raw number of voters. As long as they show up!

[LiberalFighter]

28. I don't know what it is now. But in the past Republicans dominated early voting.

[honest.abe]

32. VA has certainly changed over the past decade or so.

It used to be reliably Red.

[triron]

29. Check out this site for updates on early voting and other things Virginia:

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[honest.abe]

31. Thanks for the link! Lots of interesting stuff there.

[Hortensis]

35. Current word is BBB/BIF are to be voted on Tuesday, VA election day.

Not "set in stone," of course; but if they do it, even that late passage of the bills should help McAuliffe.

And of course American commitment to the many climate provisions would help Biden influence other nations to commit to more action at the climate summit.

[honest.abe]

36. Oh really.. that would be amazing if it happens on Tuesday and it passes!

Yes, that could have some positive impact.

[triron]

37. Early enough before polls close of course.

Too bad it can't happen on Monday.

[honest.abe]

38. Exactly but perhaps just the news the vote will happen on Tuesday..

could inspire many Dems to vote.

[triron]

44. Agreed.

[triron]

43. Why would left leaning voters waste their vote for Blanding?

Why is she even running. To screw Mcauliffe?

[honest.abe]

48. I didnt even realize Blanding was running.

Hopefully VA Dem voters dont waste their vote on her and risk losing everything.

[triron]

45. Found these interesting statistics on a Targetsmart website

' The earliest of early voters in Virginia tend to be much older than the Virginia electorate overall. In fact, only 17% of those who have cast a ballot so far are under the age of 50.
22.4% of the 2021 electorate did not vote in 2017. Of those voters who did not vote in 2017, 48% are modeled as Democrats, compared to just 26.2% Republican.
The share of current African-American early voters in Virginia (11.7%) exceeds 2017 levels (8.2%) by 3.5 points.'

https://targetsmart.com/targetsmart-launches-early-vote-dashboard-for-nj-va-elections/

[honest.abe]

47. That may be a good sign.

If those "younger" voters show up Tuesday TM wins easily.

[triron]

50. I was thinking the same.

Younger voters tend democratic.

[triron]

46. knr

[Philosophizing Fool]

49. Estimates and polls...

Trending towards the ridiculous any trust that is faithfully interpreted by polls or estimates in this reality. Do any of us really know who to trust anymore? Especially in regards towards the media and their conglomerates.

[honest.abe]

51. I see you are a new member.

Welcome!

Yes it’s hard to know who to trust but we surely don’t trust Faux Newz! Right?

[triron]

52. knr

[triron]

53. Here's the latest update (complete) on early voting in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

btw I don't understand that 2017 number. Anyone know what it is?

[W_HAMILTON]

54. It's probably the 2017 early vote numbers.

Early voting in Virginia has been SIGNIFICANTLY expanded since the 2017 elections, so, it's somewhat difficult to compare the two.

[triron]

55. You think it was that small?

[W_HAMILTON]

57. Yes, it was that small.

Once again, the state had not yet expanded early voting like they have since done.

Here is an article from a few days ago that also says the ~190k vote number was the entire early vote in the last gubernatorial election:

https://www.axios.com/virginia-governor-election-early-vote-youngkin-mcauliffe-56fcdab5-a441-47b8-b755-85183266bb23.html