Can we please wait a bit before attempting to explain tonight's results?
First, we don't know what the final outcomes will be. So before we jump to conclusions about causes, we have to know what the results were.
Second, we need DATA to help us sort out what may be going on. For example, if this year's turnout figures were substantially below what they were in 2017 (in Virginia's last gubernatorial election), both % and #s, for all demographic groups, then that suggests that getting the vote out could be a big part of the problem. But if Dem turnout was good, that suggests the problem may lie somewhere else.
As another example, if Dem candidates lost independents who supported them in 2020, but kept their base, that suggests a different problem and solution.
As another example, if the 2021 patterns in Virginia are similar to those in New Jersey, which is substantially more blue (Biden won by 15 percentage points there versus 10 points in VA), that suggests that there could be a problem with how Democrats in general are being perceived right now. Is it messaging? Is it misunderstanding of the difficulties of getting things passed in DC?
Is it a money problem? Youngkin threw TONS of money--his and donors--into the race in VA. But McAuliffe also spent a lot. This still could suggest a problem about magnitude or about how the money was spent.
These are just examples - lots of other factors may be involved. But again, before we jump on any of them, we need data.
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