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Wed Nov 3, 2021, 12:53 AM

Polling

Other then the California recall…I noticed a trend in polling where they overstate that democrats performance and understate republicans….case in point, the NJ election….and even the POTUS election last year, other than Georgia it seems like Biden underperformed in the actual vote in multiple states that he won and lost

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Arrow 9 replies Author Time Post
Reply Polling (Original post)
USAFRetired_Liberal Nov 3 OP
uponit7771 Nov 3 #1
Drunken Irishman Nov 3 #2
Sympthsical Nov 3 #3
SoCalDavidS Nov 3 #4
Sympthsical Nov 3 #5
SoCalDavidS Nov 3 #6
Sympthsical Nov 3 #7
SoCalDavidS Nov 3 #8
Buckeye_Democrat Nov 3 #9

Response to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 12:59 AM

1. No developed country on this planet would put up with the horrid level of accuracy in US polling

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Response to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:02 AM

2. Virginia looked correct at least.

 

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Response to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:06 AM

3. VA was well within the margin of error

Even if Youngkin is up 2.7% now, I expect that to settle closer to maybe 1.5% once all is said and done (just spitballing). He also had all the momentum through the weekend, so those last minute deciders probably more heavily split in his direction.

(I'd also like to take this opportunity to please ask - can we just stop with the Lincoln Project already?)

Trump voters are well-known to be suspicious and non-responsive towards pollsters. It's a thing. If you're a pollster, and people start lying to you, what do you do about that? It's a tricky question.

This seriously could've been a lot worse for McAuliffe. People have been voting for six weeks. After the craptastic month McAuliffe's campaign managed, I imagine there were people sighing and wishing they could take their votes back.

This could've been worse.

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Response to Sympthsical (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:13 AM

4. Why All The Sudden Hate For The Lincoln Project?

I missed what happened that people here are suddenly pointing fingers at them.

Did they somehow help Youngkin win?

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Response to SoCalDavidS (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:29 AM

5. They screwed up hard in VA last week.

I mean, I've always disliked them. Pulling in those eight figures amongst themselves, friends, and family while making low budget videos that play entirely to their partisan online donor base. It's a grift, IMO. Pretty good one at that.

But, very short story. LP perpetuated a hoax where white supremacists stood outside Younkin's campaign bus with tiki torches. The media and McAuliffe's campaign reacted as if it were 100% true and went, "See? This is who supports Youngkin!"

However, once a Vice reporter ID'd one of the "supremacists" as a Democrat and told the LP they were going to out them, the LP came out and admitted it was them.

No one was amused. The McAuliffe campaign condemned them, but the damage was done.

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Response to Sympthsical (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:32 AM

6. You Have Valid Points, And Are Entitled To Your Opinion

But I doubt that moved the needle in the slightest.

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Response to SoCalDavidS (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:34 AM

7. I doubt it was anything major

But in close elections, their antics are unneeded. It's a good opportunity to cut them loose.

The Republicans are going to be citing the incident for eons.

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Response to Sympthsical (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:36 AM

8. The repubs Cite Lots Of Meaningless BS For Eons

It's what they do.

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Response to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 01:40 AM

9. Polls might be more accurate if they...

... take into account that urban voters have to endure much longer lines to vote, for example.

There was video of an insanely long line in NYC that was shared on DU for the November 2016 election, and I'm almost certain that I wouldn't have stood in that line to vote. Sorry. (I'd likely vote absentee instead, as I did in Ohio.)

Yet I would've accurately told a pollster that I intended to vote for Biden and the other Democrats. But if I later encountered that kind of line, I'd think, "Well, I'm only one voter anyway. It's not worth it."

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