Youngkin won because VA Republicans bought in to a simple stereotype...and so are folks here.

[brooklynite]

CRT was never a thing, but it became an issue because Youngkin sold a simple message: Democratic politicians are "woke" intellectuals who know better than you do what your kids should be taught.

Unfortunately, that simplistic worldview isn't limited to the Right. Plenty of folks here accept the notion that all Republican politicians are Trumpists, and all Republican voters are racists. Where you do that, you blur your ability to understand both your opponents and the people who will ultimately decide who gets elected.

The VA vote swung 12 points between Biden in 20 and Youngkin in 21. That isn't solely because the Democratic base stayed home. Republicans and Moderates who voted for Biden shifted gears and voted for Youngkin. Did they become racist since January? Or is there a more complex thought process involved?

[BeyondGeography]

1. Looks like NJ swung even more, 16 points from last year

But who cares? The indy vote that put Biden over the top was anti-Trump. They were voting directly against Trump. When it came to Dems down ballot, we didn’t fare as well with them.

IOW, making the election about Trump when he’s not on the ballot didn’t even work when he was on the ballot for candidates who were competing against other Republicans.

[uponit7771]

2. +1, Youngkin ran away from Trump like he stank !! No way GQP is going to do this nationally

[totodeinhere]

45. I would not put it that way. Youngkin finessed the Trump issue very masterfully.

He accepted Trump's endorsement so he could hold on to Trump's base. But he also quietly let it be known that he felt that his campaign would be better off if Trump did not visit the state and hold a rally for him. Yet he espoused many of Trump's talking points.

[Mike 03]

3. All fair points

Only speaking for myself, my first thought wasn't really that they were all racists, but that they were so easily manipulated. But even that is debatable and I want to think carefully about what we witnessed last night.

Another question--one that opens an entire other kettle of fish--is whether Democrats benefit from holding stereotypes about our opponents, just like Republicans seem to benefit from holding them about us in terms of bringing out the vote and fighting hard. To state the obvious, they no longer run on issues and an argument can be made that it's been decades since the GOP has actually run on policies or serious issues. They run on slogans.

Good post though.

[Devil Child]

4. Nailed it

These election results are providing bitter pills for some to swallow.

[YessirAtsaFact]

5. Youngkin won because the GOP can make up "issues" like CRT their media ecosystem supports them

Fox, Newsmax, OAN, hate radio all work on the same script on these fabricated issues as republican candidates.

They're probably all being paid by the same corrupt billionaires.

They all tell lies in a coordinated fashion and they are repeated over and over until the residents of Foxlandia all believe them. Then the residents of Foxlandia talk to their neighbors, co-workers, etc and some of them are dumb enough to buy into the lies.

The Democrats need to do a better job with messaging, but the biggest problem is that the GOP has a bullshit factory pumping out coordinated fantasy issues 24/7.

The Democrats don't have an adequate answer for this. They don't know how to argue with fictional problems. I make the mistake of dismissing some of these phony issues because they look so ridiculous to me.

They look ridiculous to me because I'm not immersed in the RW disinformation stream, but my wingnut sister in law is genuinely concerned about invasions, caravans and CRT, etc.

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

8. Not to mention the GQP influence is fortified in their church services too.

We're in a tough situation for sure.

[YessirAtsaFact]

12. More brainwashing

White American evangelicals are very selective in their Christianity.

Breaking the 9th commandment is OK. So is blatant racism.

[lindysalsagal]

41. We ignore the church's influence at our own peril.

I think it's much of the gqp support. If you can believe in all of religion's fairy tales, what's a few more from the TV and radio and bookface? Gullible is gullible.

[Lemon Lyman]

13. Yup

[jimfields33]

20. Maybe all correct, but our candidate was a governor

Voters knew him. Why on earth he didn’t brag about how great Virginia was when he was governor will remain a mystery to me. He had a huge opportunity and didn’t use it.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. CRT had an impact. The exit polls show us as much.

Not necessarily the racial aspect of CRT but the idea of school curriculum and the idea the Democrats don't want parents to have a voice in what the schools teach their kids.

And where did they get that idea? Terry McAuliffe himself. In the first debate when he said exactly that.

Plenty of suburban moderates who voted for Biden heard that and ran away.

51% of Virginians said parents should have 'a lot' of say in what their kids are taught according to exit polls. 76% of them voted for Youngkin.

[YessirAtsaFact]

15. That was McAuliffe's "macacca moment"

Like when George Allen was running for reelection and made some racist remark to a South Asian college student reporter calling him "macca".

Sometimes a candidate commits a political faux pas that he can't recover from in a political campaign.

Allen made it clear he was a racist and lost an extremely close race to Jim Webb.

[bearsfootball516]

28. Like you said, McAuliffe's comment in the debate ultimately sank him.

The "Parents shouldn't decide what kids are taught in school." comment.

Now, he's right. Parent's shouldn't dictate the curriculum. But there's a better way to say that, that doesn't sound so callous to parents.

Once he said that, the Youngkin campaign played it on repeat every single day, a hundred times a day. It became very easy for them to say "Terry McAuliffe thinks he knows better for your kids than YOU do." And it destroyed him with moderates and independents.

[Drunken Irishman]

32. Yup and to a lot of people, that's what the CRT debate boils down to.

I think it's too easy to dismiss those who oppose this fictional CRT as racists. But it's not being framed like that. Youngkin framed the issue about parental choice, which whether you agree or not is a legit issue. McAuliffe stepped in it by proving what Youngkin had been claiming all along as true.

Look, Democrats aren't going to win by telling parents they can't have a voice in their children's education. That was just a terribly tone-deaf comment.

[JoanofArgh]

7. Journalist Alec MacGinnis said a big issue was that VA had more extended school closures than in any

other state ,partly because there was no guidance from the government. Parents were frustrated and upset.

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

[rickyhall]

9. Then why do all repugs stay one block in the Senate.

If you support racists, back racists, agree with racists you're a fucking racist. Sorry, them's the facts.

[qazplm135]

10. I mean yeah it is because our base stayed home

At least in comparison to theirs.

He was almost a million votes short while Youngkin was within 300k.

If just a third of those voters turnout he wins going away and I don't think even half of that million was anti Trump republicans.

They proved they didn't need Trump on the ballot to turn out.
Do we? That's the open question right now and pretty important for 22.

[FBaggins]

18. It would be a mistake to think this

It's a mistake to view the election as merely two pools of people who always vote red/blue if they vote and the race is all about who can get that "base" to show up.

Sure... that's always part of it and we probably did lose enough turnout in some areas to swing the race. But the big shift was the number of independents who showed up a year ago to vote against Trump but who this time voted for Youngkin.

My guess is that the swing there was three times as large as the effect of the "base stayed home".

Why it matters - If all we cared about was VA and hey, "a win is a win" then you would be right. If some people of color were a little more energized (say... by passing BBB), then McAuliffe wins in a nail-biter and we all call it a day. But we care about far more than just this race.

[qazplm135]

24. lol

1. I said nothing about merely two pools. But yes, elections are about which base shows up. Always have been.
2. If we lose enough turnout to "swing the race" then guess what, we lost because we didn't turnout our base.
3. He lost a million votes from Biden. That wasn't a million independents. Independents aren't really independent. They lean one side or the other. In fact, studies show independents are more predictably partisan in their voting than partisans are. Some of those voters were Dems. And if only 100K turned out, he wins.

People aren't energized to vote by some bill passing in DC. They are energized by candidates. Or by local issues. Or a singular pet issue.

This isn't the only race that was closer than it should have been. So was NJ.

They proved they can turnout their base in massive numbers without Trump on the ballot. We did not.

Fixing that problem will determine whether 22 is a close hold, or a typical midterm blowout.

[FBaggins]

30. Lol indeed

1. I said nothing about merely two pools.

3. Independents aren't really independent

Clearly, you can't see the conflict in your own thinking here.

If we lose enough turnout to "swing the race" then guess what, we lost because we didn't turnout our base

I agreed with that. But it's also true that if we lost three times that many votes to people who voted for Biden voting for Youngkin... then that too was why we lost the race. From a national perspective... it's a MUCH larger issue.

[qazplm135]

35. one set of numbers is actually data

and then there's the three times you pulled from your nether regions.

You're real good at building strawmen or false arguments though, can't deny that.

And the fact that independents tend to vote for one side or the other is established fact. That doesn't mean there are only two pools. It means that pool three (independents) is also about base turnout for both sides, and that pool four (truly undecided voters) is a very small pool that there's no margin in trying to woo.

You get your base out, you will also attract independents who lean your way.

But given the series of unsupported arguments you make around here, why am I wasting my time?

[FBaggins]

37. You can't pull that "actual data" out of your rear end and expect it to smell rosey

But keep trying. This time without the circular reasoning?

[qazplm135]

38. Takes five seconds on Google

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/

"Independents often are portrayed as political free agents with the potential to alleviate the nation’s rigid partisan divisions. Yet the reality is that most independents are not all that “independent” politically. And the small share of Americans who are truly independent – less than 10% of the public has no partisan leaning – stand out for their low level of interest in politics."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/few-americans-who-identify-as-independent-are-actually-independent-thats-really-bad-for-politics/

"The problem is that few independents are actually independent. Roughly 3 in 4 independents still lean toward one of the two major political parties, and studies show that these voters aren’t all that different from the voters in the party they lean toward. Independents who lean toward a party also tend to back that party at almost the same rate as openly partisan voters."

Go. Read. Learn.

[FBaggins]

40. I agree that you have the five second Google version.

But perhaps a little more time is warranted.

People who voted for Biden and then voted for Youngkin or Ciattarelli clearly don't fit that model. And people who "lean" one way or the other and only vote in one election out of three are not "the base"... particularly when they don't see much difference between the parties.

Pollsters like Pew have trouble seeing this because it's foundational to their model. They get fewer people self-identifying as Democrats and they weight their sample to reflect what they think the correct makeup of the electorate is. It's worth pointing out that their model, has been failing badly in recent years.

As I said... circular reasoning.

[FBaggins]

43. It was definitely a waste of your time - but that was your fault

Hard data:

In both 2020 and 2021 exit polls for VA - Independents made up almost 1/3 of the electorate (30% and 31% respectively)

Biden won them 57-38
Youngkin won them 54-45

The proportion of Democrats and Republicans was essentially unchanged between 2020 (36/34) and 2021 (35/34) - completely blowing out of the water any notion that our base did not turn out relative to theirs.

The three primary impacts (in order of effect) were:

1 - Independents shifting support from D-R
2 - Republican voters slightly more likely to vote for the republican candidate (96% vs 90%)
3 - Relative base turnout.

Any one of these could cost us the election in such a narrow loss... but #1 was by far the largest impact


One extra datapoint - By ideology rather than party affiliation, 16% of conservatives voted for Biden in VA last year. 7% voted for McCauliffe. That, too, is not a turnout thing... it's a "Trump wasn't on the ballot thing" which probably slots in between 1&2 above.

[JohnSJ]

11. It became a thing because TM didn't effectively counter it. CRT isn't even taught in K-12

It is a theory of how history is viewed through the lens of the racism that has been part of the country since it’s inception. It was developed in the 70s and 80s

Like god, guns, and gays, republicans have found a new strategy to campaign on, and unless we effectively counter it, it will be an uphill battle

Busing was part of the 2020 Democratic primaries, and so were reparations. If we get sucked into issues like that, and don’t have an adequate response, I think we will have a tough time

[FBaggins]

19. The spin that it "isn't even taught in K-12" WAS the counter.

It wasn't ineffective for lack of being used.

The parents who were concerned couldn't be placated by a claim that it should only matter to them if "CRT 101" was found on a syllabus somewhere.

[CTyankee]

21. I don't know why a simple sentence: "Critical Race Theory is not taught in our public schools. It is

studied in college along with other ideas" couldn't be said. It is true. Period.

[FBaggins]

22. It was said hundreds of times

That was McAuliffe's constant refrain on the issue.

It didn't sell. Because it was only "true" in the most technical sense.

[CTyankee]

23. True means true.

We are going to have to confront this issue head on. "If it is code for teaching something else to children, please tell us what you mean" is an idea. Get the damn pukes to say what they mean. If they try to duck it, don't let them. If they don't, then we say "Are you going to stand there and tell me...etc"

I can't believe that what worked as a message in VA and wasn't tried in other states. I found McAuliffe to be a flawed candidate. His delivery seemed frantic and that doesn't sway anybody. I would have voted for him and not liked his presentation but I'm a very active, vocal leftist Dem. I live in a different political world from VA (where I once lived) and I am so happy here.

[FBaggins]

27. It isn't enough to say that true means true

When the statement doesn't actually address the political issue.

[CTyankee]

34. Then I believe the Dems need a really good political strategy in view of that fact.

There are political advisory strategy groups that help (my son in law works with one in Boston). And this starts before the campaign starts. There has to be push back for this so-called CRT problem.

First, let's talk about what the political issue really is. What is, in your view, this political issue? What is the best response when a candidate is faced with it (we must have faced it in other places)?

[FBaggins]

36. I wish that I had an answer for you

All I can say is that the split between some people saying "it's a good thing and we should have it in our schools" and others simultaneously "don't worry about it because it isn't in the schools anyway" isn't working.

The second by itself doesn't work either when there's evidence (as there was here) that it wasn't true.

So my best guess is that some version of the first statement by itself could work.

[JohnSJ]

25. The propaganda wasn't about it brought up in colleges, but how Democrats want to hire teachers

who want to teach it, rewrite history, and other republican lies. TM did not aggressively call it out for the lies that the republicans were pushing, and there is no doubt it cost him

With republicans pushing the lie that TM wants to over rule what parents want their kids to learn, that should have been pushed back very hard, and it wasn’t

[wellst0nev0ter]

14. Are we supposed to turn a blind eye to the truth?

Oh I get it, we're supposed to be empathetic to people who spread racist propaganda.

CRT is the simplest fucking culture war to win. It isn't complicated.

Slavery is Bad.

Racism is Bad.

America once had slavery and legal racism.

We don't deny history.

But nope, we're supposed to be scared of the racists.

You don't win culture wars by running away from them.

[JohnSJ]

31. It isn't a question of denying anything. It is letting them misrepresent things. CRT is an

abstraction in the way of thinking about American history through the lens of racism, and how racism is part of our institutions based on how our country was founded. It was from the 70’s and 80’s.

It is not part of any K-12 curriculum, and to allow the republicans say CRT is a rewriting of history, is allowing a lie to go unchallenged.

[wellst0nev0ter]

39. But OP suggests that we can't address that

To say the goops used a racist CRT smear campaign is to paint all goop voters as racists, and we can't have that

We must talk about race, or the goops will do the talking for us.

[EarlG]

16. Perhaps the answer lies in reverse engineering the problem

As you say, "Youngkin sold a simple message: Democratic politicians are 'woke' intellectuals who know better than you do what your kids should be taught."

Thing is, this is what Republicans do EVERY SINGLE TIME -- sell a simple message which appeals to their simple voters and then hope that it resonates with enough independents to get them across the finish line. Over the last 20 years or so...

Democrats want to teach CRT
Democrats want to defund the police
Democrats want to let caravans of illegals into the country
Democrats want MS-13 to take over your neighborhood
Democrats want death panels to kill your granny
Democrats think you haven't been Taxed-Enough-Already
Democrats want to destroy traditional marriage
Democrats want to make the country vulnerable to terrorist attacks

So what happens when it works, and what happens when it doesn't work? What did Democrats specifically do in the years when it worked, and when it didn't work? Is there anything we can even do to counter the Republican message machine, or is there nothing we can do, and it just comes down to pure luck as to whether Republicans are able to trigger enough people with their fearmongering or not?

It seems to me that the Republican message machine breaks down when voters sense an actual threat from Republican politicians. Corruption and foreign wars were issues which caused voters to turn to Democrats in 2006/2008. Trump was a huge issue and caused voters to turn to Democrats in 2018/2020.

Is there really anything Democrats can do to counter the GOP's simple message (aka propaganda) machine? Or is it something that really just works for Republicans, and the only thing we can do is wait for them to overplay their hands before independents swing back again?

I'd like to think that we're not completely helpless, but so far have seen little evidence that we're getting anywhere close to a solution to this problem...

[Carlitos Brigante]

17. It seems to me, at least since I was able to vote starting in '92, that the only

way Democrats can win is when the 'Pukes fuck up so badly. That it puts a stench that even the RW "so called independents" vote D because they can feel it in their pocket. On the flip side, when Democrats run a successful administration and try to pass the torch (ie Gore, H. Clinton) we run nothing but defense. And seem unable to convey to voters what they've done for the country and their families. It's a sickening cycle in which the Democrats almost have to apologize for fixing shit.

This fucking place looks more and more to be beyond repair. And I have no problem blaming the self-cantered, apathetic, ignorant, wishi-washy ass electorate. Which is why I could never be a politician.............

[Lucid Dreamer]

26. Youngkin didn't win the election...

As hard is it to admit it, TM fed him a slam dunk when he said parents shouldn't have a say in education.

Change that one thing and the results are flipped. Made me throw up in my throat when I heard that. Left no route to recovery.

[JCMach1]

29. +1

[JohnSJ]

33. and he had plenty of time to try and correct it and neglected to do so

[lindysalsagal]

44. It shouldn't come as a surprise that after almost 2 years of parents being the school

during covid closures, that they'd suddenly identify as being the rulers of that institution. Everyone thinks that because they went to school, they know how to run it. Nothing new about that, at all. Mcauliffe forgot this and said what he was thinking out loud. But this detail shouldn't scare everyone about 2022. But the dems need a strategy for leaving this argument and running on something effective.