Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:16 PM

Goodheart (4,593 posts)

I am utterly convinced that the major driver in politics is the price of gasoline

Most of Americans are just that short-sighted.

Prove me wrong.

28 replies, 1495 views

Thread info Bookmark this thread Trash this thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum

Replies to this discussion thread

28 replies	Author	Time	Post
I am utterly convinced that the major driver in politics is the price of gasoline (Original post)	Goodheart	Nov 2021	OP
That's a factor for sure.	BlueTsunami2018	Nov 2021	#1
Correlated To Fuel	ProfessorGAC	Nov 2021	#18
And shelves are bare in some stores.	hamsterjill	Nov 2021	#21
You could very well be right.	Elessar Zappa	Nov 2021	#2
I would add the prices at the grocery store too	madville	Nov 2021	#3
Although inflation has been deemed a non-issue by DUers, if prices are	Hoyt	Nov 2021	#4
It's always an issue.	Goodheart	Nov 2021	#5
According to DUers a month ago, talk of inflation was premature and spreading	Hoyt	Nov 2021	#8
Agree nt	spooky3	Nov 2021	#12
Its an issue for me	Buddy1	Nov 2021	#25
Gasoline and Inflation	maxsolomon	Nov 2021	#6
"The Economy" is almost always the driver of any given vote.	Decoy of Fenris	Nov 2021	#7
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Nov 2021	#9
It's highly visible, and impacts people's lives.	bearsfootball516	Nov 2021	#10
Gas and Supply Chain	Metaphorical	Nov 2021	#11
people care a lot less about issues	qazplm135	Nov 2021	#13
It drives me nuts	d_r	Nov 2021	#14
Why high gas prices is good policy... tax the crap out of these gas guzzlers!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Nov 2021	#15
The irony is, the only way we'll reduce gas consumption is via higher cost	NickB79	Nov 2021	#16
Big Oil	ymetca	Nov 2021	#17
Supply & Demand	ProfessorGAC	Nov 2021	#19
Let's Tell the Truth.	Ron Green	Nov 2021	#20
Short-sighted?	Devil Child	Nov 2021	#22
Actually, the major driver in politics is the price of politics.	KY_EnviroGuy	Nov 2021	#23
Even though gas prices are the product of conservative economics.	Initech	Nov 2021	#24
The data doesn't support that	onenote	Nov 2021	#26
Thank you. I stand corrected.	Goodheart	Nov 2021	#27
And FFS stop the IRS BS around election time	JCMach1	Nov 2021	#28

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:18 PM

BlueTsunami2018 (2,927 posts)

1. That's a factor for sure.

But the prices for everything are really high right now. That’s a big problem.

Reply to this post

Response to BlueTsunami2018 (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 08:16 PM

ProfessorGAC (57,781 posts)

18. Correlated To Fuel

Shipping costs, warehousing costs, and production of food products are all influenced by fuel costs, especially the first.
So, consumer goods all have upward price pressure.
Sure, some goods may be more expensive to produce right now, (but most of the reported financial reasons are pretty flimsy), but the high fuel costs compound things.
Normally inflation doesn't include fuel cost for this very reason. Consumer prices are autocorrelated to fuel so economists like to leave that out. Actually, finding that degree of autocorrelation is pretty easy, so correcting figures for "double counting" isn't that hard. The economics community has been lazy & negligent in this area for decades.

Reply to this post

Response to BlueTsunami2018 (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 09:45 PM

hamsterjill (14,929 posts)

21. And shelves are bare in some stores.

That also factors in to this, including the argument as to gas prices. Costs more to move goods, etc.

Average working people see empty shelves and get scared, and they get mad.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:18 PM

Elessar Zappa (10,627 posts)

2. You could very well be right.

A lot of “swing” voters vote based on how their wallet’s doing.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:21 PM

madville (7,094 posts)

3. I would add the prices at the grocery store too

I don’t remember seeing grocery price increases like this in the last 40 years, especially on meat. That affects almost every person.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:22 PM

Hoyt (54,770 posts)

4. Although inflation has been deemed a non-issue by DUers, if prices are

up next year and in 2024, it will definitely be an issue that will help GOPers at the polls.

Reply to this post

Response to Hoyt (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:24 PM

Goodheart (4,593 posts)

5. It's always an issue.

And most Americans are too economically illiterate to understand its causes, or the bigger picture.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:29 PM

Hoyt (54,770 posts)

8. According to DUers a month ago, talk of inflation was premature and spreading

right wing talking point.

Ask Jimmy Carter who gets blamed for inflation, even if it wasn’t his fault.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:40 PM

spooky3 (31,549 posts)

12. Agree nt

Reply to this post

Response to Hoyt (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 11:05 PM

Buddy1 (10 posts)

25. Its an issue for me

Im struggling with increased prices on gas and food. How do we deem inflation as a non-issue?

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:26 PM

maxsolomon (29,951 posts)

6. Gasoline and Inflation

It's been how long since we experienced real Inflation? 1991 was the last time the US had a rate over 4%.

There are 30 year olds who've never experienced it before.

The Finger of Blame must be pointed, despite most of it being beyond anyone's control, and Biden is in the way.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:28 PM

Decoy of Fenris (1,954 posts)

7. "The Economy" is almost always the driver of any given vote.

Without financial security and stability, you can't expect people to care about other more nuanced issues. You think someone who lives paycheck to paycheck with two jobs, struggling to find out what to eat next, gives a shit about wind-power or refugees or social justice? They're going to vote for what makes their lives easier.

It's just a political representation of the Hierarchy of Needs: People won't vote for anything that doesn't directly impact their current "Level" on the hierarchy. The worse the economy, the more "basic" the voter. Right now the economy's shit, inflation's bonkers, gas is through the roof and basic food and goods prices are spiked. That tends to happen regardless of party in charge. Unfortunately, Democrats are going to reap that particularly rotten harvest unless it gets addressed before 2022, I think.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Name removed Message auto-removed

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:35 PM

bearsfootball516 (6,345 posts)

10. It's highly visible, and impacts people's lives.

I drive past 5 gas stations every morning on my way to work, and 5 on my way home. That’s 10 times a day my eyes glance up at the prices and subconsciously I think “Wow, that’s high.”

I’m lucky to be in a position where it doesn’t impact me. But for tens of millions of low and middle income Americans, it hurts. I used to be in a spot where I only put enough gas in my tank to make it to the next payday. It was awful. And millions of Americans go through that every day.

And yes, I know that the President doesn’t have any control over gas prices. I’m just saying, I can understand the discomfort someone would feel over gas prices.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:38 PM

Metaphorical (1,515 posts)

11. Gas and Supply Chain

Irony is that things like ADP employment numbers right now are through the roof.

My anticipation is that once we get into the Spring, assuming we don't see another Delta-like variant emerge, most of the supply chain issues should resolve themselves pretty quickly. Oil prices are still lower than they were six years ago, and look to be topping out at around $80 bbl for WTI. We got used to seeing oil at $40-$50 bbl, but historically that's on the low end.

Still, the perception is that food and oil prices are high, and yes, people really are that short-sighted (and not just Americans), especially when corporate media is fanning the flames.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:41 PM

qazplm135 (7,425 posts)

13. people care a lot less about issues

and a lot more about their general life.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:52 PM

d_r (6,885 posts)

14. It drives me nuts

That these people drive these gas guzzlers then turn around and cry about gas prices.

Reply to this post

Response to d_r (Reply #14)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 07:56 PM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,845 posts)

15. Why high gas prices is good policy... tax the crap out of these gas guzzlers!!

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 08:00 PM

NickB79 (17,826 posts)

16. The irony is, the only way we'll reduce gas consumption is via higher cost

We've never voluntarily reduced our fuel consumption through conservation and purchasing fuel-efficient cars except when high prices at the pump convinced us to. Every time prices fall, Prius sales drop and truck sales spike.

And the only way we have a chance in hell of combating climate change is by lowering gas and diesel use.

BUT....

Politicians who even suggest we raise gas prices just a few cents to protect the environment get pilloried by voters, who end up electing the guys who don't give a fuck about the climate.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 08:08 PM

ymetca (1,166 posts)

17. Big Oil

always jacks the price of gasoline when their butts are on the hot-seat, which is normally when a Dem is in the White House.

Of course, when W was in charge, and gas was $8 a gallon, he just started a war to to take our minds off the subject. QED. Remember when the GOP was touting how we'd just take all that sweet Iraqi oil? Hmm.. what happened there?

Black Gold always has the ace-up-the-sleeve, especially when Winter is Coming and the fear of freezing to death can be used to "hone" voters' priorities.

Supply and demand ain't got nothin' on that cartel.

Reply to this post

Response to ymetca (Reply #17)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 08:23 PM

ProfessorGAC (57,781 posts)

19. Supply & Demand

That's the trick. Big oil actually doesn't set prices as both raw material & refined product are sold through the commodities market. (Although, the fix is in on refined goods, due to the long ago agreed upon cost plus floor.)
But, OPEC & the oil giants pumping their own raw material can manipulate both supply & demand. So the prices, which are supposed to be independent of producers pricing, really aren't.
Geez, BP or Shell could decide to plan refinery turnarounds as the work with cheap crude, holding 10 days of low cost product, waiting for the markets to react to 2 refineries going down for 3 months.
That's hardly price independence.
The approval to allow refined goods to be commoditized (eliminating any incentive for refiners to compete on price) was to "protect" the consumer. Didn't work out that way, and most experts at the time accurately predicted this.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 09:32 PM

Ron Green (9,757 posts)

20. Let's Tell the Truth.

Gasoline is cheap, and always has been. That’s why we’ve built an unsustainable world on it.

And economic growth is no longer desirable, or even possible, on a dying planet. The 20th-Century bubble has burst, and only fools will continue to look to the stock market or the GDP for anything positive.

Until we get politicians who’ll tell these truths we are done for.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 09:49 PM

Devil Child (2,728 posts)

22. Short-sighted?

Most citizens of the US exist paycheck to paycheck so they do indeed care about gas prices and things like inflation. So yeah, short-sighted due to harsh necessities of life.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 10:20 PM

KY_EnviroGuy (14,246 posts)

23. Actually, the major driver in politics is the price of politics.

Prove me wrong.......

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 10:52 PM

Initech (96,287 posts)

24. Even though gas prices are the product of conservative economics.

Yeah let's give oil companies free money and see what happens.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Wed Nov 3, 2021, 11:07 PM

onenote (39,429 posts)

26. The data doesn't support that

In November 2000, the average price of a gallon of gas was $1.526 -- Bush elected.
Four years later, the price of gas was up to almost $2.00 - and Bush was re-elected
When Obama defeated McCain in 2008, the price was $2.24
Four years later, the price was almost $3.50 -- and Obama was re-elected
Despite the price of gas having fallen to $2.18 in November 2016, Trump was elected
And even though the price had fallen to $2.10 in November 2020, Trump lost.

If the price of gas was the "major driver" in politics, you wouldn't see those results.

Reply to this post

Response to onenote (Reply #26)

Thu Nov 4, 2021, 12:20 AM

Goodheart (4,593 posts)

27. Thank you. I stand corrected.

Reply to this post

Response to Goodheart (Original post)

Thu Nov 4, 2021, 12:56 AM

JCMach1 (27,115 posts)

28. And FFS stop the IRS BS around election time

Reply to this post

General Discussion (Forum)