With BIF passed and no leverage for sinema and manchin to vote for BBB

[ColinC]

You can rest assured that the bulk of president Biden's agenda for at least the next two years, is dead.

[brooklynite]

1. If you believe that (which I don't)...

…then The House should have passed as it weeks ago.

Holding it hostage was never going to work.

[leftstreet]

2. Manchin didn't make his play "weeks ago"

It was right before the election

BBB is dead

[Tomconroy]

40. Manchin made his play in July. In writing.

[qazplm135]

5. it worked enough

to get Sinema more or less on board, to force House Dems to basically publicly agree to vote for BBB, and to at least get Manchin seriously negotiating.

So yeah, it worked just fine.

And if BBB doesn't pass, then passing the BIF is going to be small change and we won't win in 22.

[Demsrule86]

48. We could win....but not if some do what was done in 10 to President Obama and they stay

home and pout. People should consider the consequences of not supporting our party in such dangerous times.

[qazplm135]

54. Loyalty works both ways

Perhaps some moderates should remember that too.

[dpibel]

18. What was going to work?

Or is your position that BBB was just a bit too, ummm, too too for the, shall we say, important people?

[RockRaven]

3. You really think there was effective leverage against Sinema and Manchin there?

Sinema gonna Sinema.

Manchin gonna Manchin.

Both gonna pretend like they're trying to make a complex deal the public/media is too ignorant to appreciate/understand.

They're not.

[In It to Win It]

4. I want to imagine that most Democrats voted for BIF because they have an understanding

With Manchin and Sinema on the BBB bill.

[qazplm135]

7. I think it's because Sinema has finally

more or less said she's on board.
Manchin is still Manchining but the hope is that he won't be the final vote to sink it.

Of course, they could all be playing us for fools, in which case, everyone loses, not just progressives.

[Bettie]

6. It is dead

Manchin and Sinema got what they wanted, so there will be no second bill.

[qazplm135]

8. we don't remotely know that yet

if it dies, I'll be carrying a pitchfork too, until let's just wait and see...it won't be long to tell which way things will go.

[LonePirate]

11. BBB is dead. The conservative Dems in the House will now kill it before Manchin/Sinema can.

[qazplm135]

24. again

we don't know that, and House Dems are way less the potential problem than Manchin is.

[Hotler]

46. I agree. nt.

[Demsrule86]

49. I think you are wrong. I believe holding the other bill hostage hurt us in Virginia and hampered

our chances of making a deal.

[Hoyt]

9. Not necessarily. Worst case, they'll have to break some items out separately.

I get there are problems with that.

I think passing something is a win and momentum will help us.

[LonePirate]

13. There is no momentum. BBB is dead. The conservatives Dems & Repubs will now kill it in the House.

The conservative Dems never wanted BBB to pass. They tried to get some things added to it just to make a mess of the process but they don't care if those items pass or fail. Now they can revert to their original position and vote No on the bill. They are making suckers of Democrats everywhere, including here on DU, who believed they were genuinely supportive of BBB. For those opposed to BBB, it is a joyous night as another bill like it will not come up until some time in the 2030s as Republicans will retake the House in 2023 and Dems will not have another trifecta for a decade or more.

[Hoyt]

15. So it's dead, and none of it will be enacted? Respectfully think you are too pessimistic.

Think some — maybe all, maybe more — will be enacted, just not linked to voting on Bipartisan bill.

[LonePirate]

17. None of it will be enacted. Conservs kill it in the House. M/S & filibuster kill things in Senate.

[Demsrule86]

50. I don't think so.

[Bettie]

55. What has changed that makes you think

that they will suddenly vote for it?

The conservative Dems in the House don't want to help human beings.

Manchin and Sinema don't want to help human beings.

So, why would they vote for this when they have already got the one bill they actually sort-of wanted?

They are rolling in cash now, Mitch is their best friend, and he gets to call all the shots.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

20. I read somewhere that Jayapal got written assurances

That if the CBO came back okay, the six holdouts were yeas.

Manchin’s statement on Monday felt the same to me.
I’ve never seen the CBO score not come back positive for Dems.

[Hoyt]

21. +1. I'd be surprised, even ticked, if Manchin, etc., reneged on that.

If CBO says we need to bolster funding sources, ie taxes, then do that.

[wellst0nev0ter]

23. The fact that he called for a CBO on the BBB should have been a red flag

The BIF will generate a deficit, according to the CBO, yet the conservadems have no problem with it. It was a bad-faith move all along.

[Hoyt]

25. The fact anyone is opposed to a CBO report concerns me when it's been

sold as not increasing Deficit.

If taxes have to be increased, so be it. Do it.

[wellst0nev0ter]

26. They didn't care about the CBO for the BIF

But they want a CBO for the BBB?

Can't we see a stalling tactic for what it is?

[Hoyt]

27. Was BIF -- a Bipartisan bill sure to pass unless we screwed it up -- sold as deficit free?

[wellst0nev0ter]

29. That's the point, goops and didn't care if BIF was not revenue neutral

As long as they can use it to kill the BBB.

We've been played. And we allowed ourselves to be played.

[Hoyt]

31. No, we've passed meaningful legislation, with more to come, in deeply divided country.

[wellst0nev0ter]

33. We passed a bigger relief bill in the beginning of the year

How did that help us in the off-year elections?

Good luck selling a bill of goods to the voters.

[Hoyt]

34. The chaos created by linking the two bills together, didn't help.

[wellst0nev0ter]

35. Bills should not have been separated in the first place

But that ship has sailed, and the goops got what they wanted.

[Hoyt]

36. Actually, piling a bunch of stuff -- no matter how good -- into one bill was probably

a mistake, IMO.

[JohnSJ]

14. +++

[regnaD kciN]

39. And how will they "break items out separately"...

...when you can only invoke budget reconciliation once per year? Even if you can get Manchin and Sinema on board, where are you going to find ten Republican senators to break a filibuster?

[Hoyt]

44. Make GOPers vote against child care, etc. It's too easy to vote against a $2 Trillion mishmash.

[Bettie]

56. They won't have to vote against it

it will be filibustered, before debate is even allowed.

The filibuster ensures that they never have to vote against anything anymore.

[Hoyt]

57. OK, let's just sulk.

[Silent3]

10. I'm willing to be pleasantly surprised, but I will indeed be suprised if BBB gets anywhere now

If BBB does eventually get past the obstructionist duo, it'll be a pale shadow of the already-watered-down-from-$3.5T-to-$1.75T bill.

[JohnSJ]

12. I am bookmarking this thread to hear what happens if the BBB passes. It may not have some

items included, which no doubt will disappoint some, but it will be some progress

In the meantime, the objective for those Democrats who are not happy, a more productive approach might be to look toward 2022 to get more progressive Democrats elected

It is a 50-50 Senate, and this is what we are dealing with now

[Hoyt]

16. +1. Something decent will pass.

[JohnSJ]

19. I think so too Hoyt. There are political realities involved that I would hope some would understand

Something is better than nothing

[Demsrule86]

51. I agree Hoyt. And the infrastructure bill is a good bill and passing a bipartisan bill hasn't been

done in more than a decade...it is a BFD.

[mcar]

22. "Rest assured," huh?

You must really be in the know. Are you a White House advisor?

[myohmy2]

28. "...no leverage for sinema and manchin to vote for BBB"

...we could beg...

...yep, that's what I'm going to do..

...I'm going to beg...

[Demsrule86]

52. I have said for months...we never had leverage of any sort.

[gulliver]

30. There wasn't any "leverage" to begin with.

Biden scored a huge win tonight. And more will come. I'm starting to think Dems are starting to get winning.

[Sunsky]

42. Exactly

All we were achieving was a big fat nothing. This is a huge victory and morale booster for our voters. Let's give the people something to vote for.

[SCantiGOP]

32. I think Pelosi has a better grasp of events

than every post in this thread.
The bill will get knocked around a bit more in the Senate, but it will pass.

[niyad]

37. I am suddenly hearing Og the leprechaun from "Finian's Rainbow".

[budkin]

38. BBB is DOA

It was nice to dream though.

[Tomconroy]

41. A BBB bill will pass at some point. It will be written in the Senate.

Whatever the House passes in the near future is irrelevant. The House will have to pass whatever the Senate votes for because Joe Manchin is in charge. This has been obvious since July. Joe Manchin wanted a 1.5 trillion BBB in July. Others wanted 6 trillion, then 3.5, then 2-2.2 and it's now 1.75 which Joe Manchin has agreed to.
It tells you who is going to write the bill.

[Demsrule86]

53. And? 1.75 trillion is pretty substantial. I swear I will be so delighted I may do cartwheels.

I hope hope hope it passes.

[George II]

43. I've never seen so many people so disappointed that a Democratic bill passed - a bill we've been....

...waiting for since Obama left office.

[MineralMan]

45. Is that you, Debbie Downer?

Hi, Debbie!

[11 Bravo]

62. I think it's Debbie's gloomy little brother, Wilfred Werefucked.

[MineralMan]

63. LOL!

[karynnj]

47. I trust Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden

She very much wants BBB to pass and has worked endless hours to do so. Biden has very publicly made his support known. At this point, there have been substantial negotiations with Manchin and Sinema and they are at or very close to knowing what they will support.

The bill can not be addressed by the Senate until they have the CBO score - so the House moderates demanding it are not really slowing the process. Once the CBO score is available, if it is acceptable, they will vote that bill in the House in the week of November 15. In the unlikely case, it gets a bad number, that can be corrected in the bill before the vote.

As to the idea of leverage, it depends on the idea that there are enough Democrats in the House that if the BBB were voted first, sent to the Senate and COMPLETELY rejected, that there would be enough Democrats in the House to defeat the bipartisan bill. What is more realistic is that the Senate may amend the bill removing important items, pass it and send it back to the House. In that case, the House Democrats will almost certainly vote for it because EVERY piece of it is important to us.

One worry I have is Manchin will remove the entire climate change piece. As someone who first came to DU in 2005 as part of the DU John Kerry group you can imagine how bad I think that would be. He might also remove the paid leave - which he clearly does not understand as he initially suggested it have a work requirement. The paid leave issue has both class and generation differences. Big companies last century, essentially covered much of this.

Even given the importance that I give these pieces - and I will be very unhappy if they are gutted - I would want the House to pass the remainder. More importantly, had the House continued to hold the Bipartisan bill and waited for the Senate (after the House) to pass the BBB bill - there is no reason to think the Senate would do anything differently.

Yes, I have heard a million people speak of the leverage from holding the bipartisan bill, but the ultimate weight of that leverage is based on whether you really believe that enough Democrats would vote against the bipartisan bill (which they actually want). Consider that, if there were doubt, it is even possible that more Republicans would vote for the bipartisan bill.

[Doremus]

58. Agree. Dead and deader.

[RussBLib]

59. can't always get what you want

So, in 2022, Dems have to focus on increasing their majorities in the Senate, especially, but also the House. If we can add a few to the Senate, we won't need to beg Manchin or Sinema for shit.

They passed the infrastructure bill, and with the stimulus package they passed in early 2021, that should be enough to claim that the Dems can get stuff done and deliver for the American people.

Then they still have to counter - forcefully - the constant stream of lies coming out of the GOP.

[FakeNoose]

60. Next year we're electing more and better Democrats to Congress

That's all there is to it!

Pennsylvania has a good chance to flip a Senate seat from R to D next year.

Come on guys, let's get to work. Elect more Democrats and Biden's full program can still happen.

[ColinC]

61. Dealing with a republican house will be even worse of course, but if we can

Can add senate seat to the senate, it increases the chances of continually taking back the courts

[Shellback Squid]

64. FUCK THAT PROGNOSTICATION

WHY ARE YOU HERE?

[honest.abe]

65. When BBB passes will you post a mea culpa?

[JustAnotherGen]

66. We'll see

This op might not age well.