I wonder if Terry would have won ...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I wonder if Terry would have won if we got the boffo job numbers and infrastructure on 10/5 instead of 11/5. Joe Biden's approval rating in VA exit polls was 43 or 45%. It would have been higher, the mood would have been better, and Terry might have picked up a few points which is all he needed.

I don't buy into these culture war arguments swaying elections, maybe at the margins. We did well in the 018 mid-terms because a lot of people rightfully and righteously loathed the TFG and used the elections to send him and his party a message.

SIGH.

[MustLoveBeagles]

1. Possibly

[bottomofthehill]

2. You could well be right a month earlier would have helped

Enough, we will never know, but it would have been easier.

[empedocles]

3. It would have been hard to portray Biden as incompetent, weak, etc.

Would have also buffered the negatives; most which weren't Biden's fault.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Hopefully things will be better by the mid-terms.

I know Terry made a gaffe on education but he did run four to six points ahead of Biden's approval rating in VA. If Joe was at 50% this election is likely a walk.

[empedocles]

6. Hopefully . . . will learn from these unnecessary losses.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I see some criticism of him as a candidate

Maybe it's warranted. Maybe it isn't. Not a hill I will die on. He ran ahead of Biden's approval in VA. The wind was at his face, not at his back.

[spooky3]

17. I think the criticism of him as a candidate is as misplaced, maybe more so,

As the criticism of Hillary Clinton as a candidate.

Yes, campaigning is not his forte but he worked hard at it—was all over the state talking with voters. But he held the job as governor before, and he was very good at governing. That should have made his campaign behavior much less relevant. Unfortunately there are too many Trumpers and low info voters still here. There are also a lot of high income, highly educated people who would like lower taxes and Youngkin seized on that, without explaining how he would pay for things. IMHO, Dems need to stop dismissing the SALT cap as something only Republicans would support, that benefits only the rich. It affects a married police officer and a nurse, especially in NoVA, as well as doctors, etc.

In 2013, he was the first person in many years to win the office when the incumbent President was of the same party. He won with less than half of the popular vote then; there was a third candidate. And, this is a purple state, not a blue one. No one is going to win a governor’s race, or get approval ratings, by a big margin.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I take It you're a Virginian.

I thought the fact objective conditions were good in context would help Terry.

[spooky3]

19. I live in NoVA, and I agree with you. Nt

[onenote]

34. He ran away from the successful record of Democrats in Virginia the past two years.

That, by definition, is a terrible campaign. Virginia has done extraordinarily well in handling and recovering from the pandemic. It's unemployment rate is all the way down to 3.8 percent. It has a lower per capita death rate from COVID than Republican-led states like Texas and Florida. It has enacted a phased in increase in the minimum wage (the first phase in, to $9.50/hour, became effective in pay, and it jumps to $11 in January and then increases annually the next few years after that ). The Democratic legislature and Democratic governor did all of that. And also passed legislation making it easier to vote.

But McAuliffe spoke not a word about those accomplishments in his campaign ads. He left the field open for Youngkin to portray the state as being in chaos and crisis -- and he implicitly contributed to that impression by focusing on what he did as Governor between 2013 and 2017 instead of urging voters to continue to move forward and build on the successes of 2017-2021.

[spooky3]

36. I also would have much preferred for him to do

What you suggest. But the statistical evidence described in other posts on this thread suggest that the result was much more likely a function of other factors.

[spooky3]

10. Good point. Nt

[spooky3]

5. I think so. Racism and lies contributed, but people's perceptions that

Inflation is bad, the pandemic isn’t over, and that Dems weren’t getting the job done (even though all of that should be pinned on Republicans instead) were the main factors.

The gaps between McAuliffe’s and Murphy’s margins relative to Biden’s margins in 2020 in their states, were VERY similar.

[KPN]

7. The culture wars are what got TFG elected. Without

that, he would not have come close to an electoral college victory let alone popular vote.

I’m not saying that earlier timing on the jobs numbers and the infrastructure bill might not have yielded a victory for Terry M, but the culture wars have always been one of the key means to victory for the GOP going back to Bush Sr. That’s what they are about — divide and conquer without concern for long term consequences.

[NoRethugFriends]

8. How many of the idiots

who voted Youngkin do you think would have noticed that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. We beat the TFG by ten point there last year and Northam beat Gillespie by 9 in the last gov race.

[Beakybird]

12. Yes, it would have swayed at least one in a hundred.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. The rosiest scenario

The withdrawal from Afghanistan goes smoothly, there's no inflation and shortages, the pandemic is under control, and Congress passed Joe's infrastructure bill. Even in this hyperpartisan era, Joe's approval would be in the mid-fifties. The right-wing crazies would care about this culture war stuff but their numbers aren't nearly large enough to sway an election.

If we are there next Fall we have a 50/50 shot of defying the mid term jinx and holding the House and Senate.

[WarGamer]

15. I can't see ANY President having a mid 50's approval after the "Honeymoon Period"

Remember when Shrub had 80% approval post 9-11?

Wouldn't happen today.

If 9-11 happened today, 50% of the population would blame Biden and refuse to get behind him.

[WarGamer]

14. Doubtful.

The "School Moms" defeated him.

His dumbass quote about parents STFU and let the School boards make education decisions was his big mistake.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. There was a bigger falloff from 2020 in NJ but Murphy had a bigger cushion.

That bigger cushion made all the difference. Or to put it differently NJ is just bluer.

[spooky3]

21. Exactly. And Dems lost the Lt Gov and Attorney General

Races by about the same margin as they lost the Gov. Those candidates didn’t make any education “gaffes.”

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. It likely made a very small difference at the margins.

In this hyperpartisan era elections are more about mobilization than persuasion. The statewide races as well as the total House of Delegates votes was 48% or 49% D which is what Terry got. In the end the mood was bad and that's what sunk all of them. I will say that lieutenant governor is a real piece of work

[spooky3]

29. Totally agree. Dem turnout was good, but Rep turnout went WAY

up, compared to 2013.

[karynnj]

20. I think Joe Biden's answer - which was essentially that we can not know

whether it would have changed the number of Republicans that came out.

One reason it might have helped is IF it changed what McAuliffe did at the end. Let's say he had an event and got a lot of people out near the site of one of the projects that is likely to be funded by the BIB. He also could - as some said here - talked about VA having a record surplus under current Democratic leadership. Anything that moved him to speak of the economy rather than Trump could have helped.

As to the culture wars, I suspect that McAuliffe might have been less well positioned to answer the school/culture stuff than say someone like Senator Kaine, who is much harder to paint as not for families - which is essentially what the Republicans did to McAuliffe partly using an unartful comment in the debate - even though I agree with the basic intent. It may well be that it was this issue that moved the most Biden 2020 to Younkin.

I also wonder why he apparently did not use alternating clips where Younkin said one thing to the right and the opposite to the public as a whole. That was MORE than having shifting positions (a typical Republican attack), but a cynical hypocritical holding two different conflicting positions at the same time.

[spooky3]

22. Ads like those you described were ALL OVER the TV in NoVA

in Sept. - Nov.

Other facts that suggest McAuliffe’s campaigning was a relatively small factor are in my other posts and those of the OP. Jennifer Rubin also posted an online chat at WaPo with more evidence. She also had some great suggestions for Dems going forward.

[karynnj]

24. Thanks - I had not read that and was not in that area

I apologize for my error in commenting when I was not aware of what was shown.

[spooky3]

32. Please, no apology! One of the ads showed Youngkin telling

A supporter at a GOP rally that he couldn’t come out against abortion rights during the campaign because he “needed the independents” but once in office, he could take action. He obviously didn’t know he was being recorded. Others showed him during the primary season, saying things that were almost identical to things Trump was shown saying.

I kept wishing that Terry would run some ads highlighting accomplishments as governor, despite dealing with a RW legislature, and how that progress continued under Northam. I saw one ad like that a few days before Election Day, but 20 percent of the electorate had already voted by then.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Biden was at 43% approval in VA exits.

I suspect his approval rating among all VA voters was three or four points higher. That means the electorate was anti-Biden and some pro-Biden voters stayed home. Terry matched or exceeded his and Biden's numbers among non white voters but the falloff in participation was catastrophic. So many numbers. The 2020 electorate was 33% non-white. This electorate was 27% non-white. Given the fact this demographic is 70% Democratic Terry lost four 4 or so points right there

[triron]

30. Also young voters didn't turn out as well either.

[Hortensis]

25. Agree we can't know. We CAN know right and wrong, though. nt

[triron]

27. And what if all the good news on the economy (jobs and unemployment) had come out?

Just 10 days ago.

[Hav]

28. Maybe those job numbers plus getting

at least one of the bills passed would have made a difference. Democrats looked incompetent (announcing votes and then having to reschedule when the votes weren't there, one side making demands, then some more demands, back and forth with no progress). I think any bill would have been a major boost for the Dems running. To a large degree it's about framing the debate.

[onenote]

31. Highly unlikely. But Terry might have done better if he had run on how well Virginia is doing

Virginia has reduced its unemployment rate from a pandemic high in the 10 percent range to 3.8 percent -- better than 3/4 of the states. It has a budget surplus. It has a lower per capita COVID death rate than Republican run states like Texas and Florida. It has enacted phased in increases to the minimum wage under which it increased to $9.50 on May 1, 2021, and will increase again to $11.00 on January 1, 2022, and to $12.00 on January 1, 2023 , $13.50 on January 1, 2024.

But you wouldn't have known any of that from McAuliffe's campaign. So I doubt that the "boffo" job numbers (still not as good as Virginia's numbers) or the infrastructure bill would've made a difference.

[spooky3]

35. Youngkin framed the budget surplus as showing Virginians' taxes were too high. Nt

[Qutzupalotl]

33. Jonathan Lemire suggested on MSNBC

that Virginia lit a fire under Democrats to get a victory on the books; that the election influenced the tone of negotiations to the point that enough members thought it better to pass the smaller bill first, despite the deal to the contrary. So it might be the other way around in terms of influence.

I agree that a victory a few weeks before the election would have helped Terry a lot. Give people something to vote for rather than just against.

[spooky3]

37. A lot of us thought that, too--the one silver lining. Nt

[PortTack]

38. I agree it wasn't the CRT not really, this is about racism and white supremacy

The white fe suburbanites that voted for the gqp were non college educated. White fe voters with higher education voted for McAuliffe

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. The culture war crap didn't prevent us from winning VA by 10 points in 2020

[Girl powers]

40. Whose to blame?

I blame Manchin……the lying hypocrite. He delayed and delayed passage of Biden’s program until after the election - then all of a sudden it passed.

[Girl powers]

41. Who's not whose, sorry it's VERY early in the am.