Here's what the unvaccinated can expect from taking Ivermectin to treat Covid

[Shermann]

Joe Rogan and Aaron Rodgers famously took Ivermectin to treat their Covid infections instead of proactively getting vaccinated.

In terms of probability, here are the likely outcomes from taking the various therapeutics:

Ivermectin: survival likely
Hydroxychloroquine: survival likely
Monoclonal antibodies: survival likely
Remdesivir: survival likely
Zinc: survival likely
Vitamin C: survival likely
Vitamin D: survival likely
Drink bleach: survival likely (this is really going to suck though)
Take nothing: survival likely

Even if you have every risk factor possible, I don't know that the probability of death ever reaches 50%. That's not to downplay the risk, however.

Now Joe Rogan has attributed his recovery to his treatments. This is an example of a survivorship bias fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

Sanjay Gupta was on Rogan's show recently and didn't call him out on this.

[hlthe2b]

1. Sanjay is not specfically trained as an epidemiologist so he didn't call this out. He should know

the concept--even if he's not well versed in the terminology, however. Not really a knock on him-- as he approaches it from a different angle. He responds to these kinds of issues in a more generalized manner or more specifically as a clinician, while many of the other medical consultants, especially on MSNBC, are more likely to have been specifically trained in public health epidemiology (faculty of schools of public health) and are more likely to do so applying such concepts. In terms of informing the public, however, I agree it is a lost opportunity.

[Shermann]

2. I think his angle was mostly asking a few softball questions of the other side

There was a message there, but it was very muted. He was playing nice.

I think I've demonstrated that you don't have to be an epidemiologist to spot Rogan's logical fallacy.

[NickB79]

3. Before vaccines and treatment, the RW kept yelling how survivable COVID was

"99% of people survive it, what's the big deal? It's just the flu!"

Now people chug horse paste and act like they just beat Ebola.

[Shermann]

5. That was (and remains) a cherry-picking fallacy

It focuses on one piece of evidence while excluding the high transmissibility and raft of other known and unknown risks related to the virus.

It is also an appeal to consequences fallacy. If the virus really is like the flu, we can keep the economy humming along. Therefore, it is like the flu.

The appeal to consequences fallacy applies to climate change as well, just on a much slower timescale. One positive outcome of the pandemic is that it has helped to lay bare the realities of magical thinking in real time.

[Shermann]

4. It is also a causal fallacy

Rogan (A) got sick, then (B) took Ivermectin, then (C) recovered. Therefore, B caused C.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questionable_cause

[womanofthehills]

7. Rogan did not just take Ivermectin - he took monoclonal antibodies,

Vitamin infusions,z pack, steroids etc plus he is a super healthy guy.

[Shermann]

10. It would still be a logical fallacy to assert that all those treatments together cured him

If the CV-19 fatality rate was 100%, perhaps it would be a different story.

That's not to say we can't determine efficacy. We determine that by doing statistics over large groups of tens of thousands or more. Those statistics are compiled by scientists and medical professionals who can eliminate all the messy noise that you get in such an endeavor. So those are the people we should listen to. Joe Rogan is a sample size of one knucklehead. Well, you have Rodgers now. So make it two knuckleheads.

[Walleye]

6. I'm pretty sure smoking weed cured my cancer

Could’ve been the chemo

[womanofthehills]

8. 3 hrs of Joe Rogan & Dr Sanjay - very interesting podcast

My granddaughter just turned me on to Rogan and it’s a side point but his interview with Jewel is one of the most interesting interviews ever.

[bottomofthehill]

9. Please let me add

Drinking your own urine Likely survival
Eating your own shit Likely survival
Eating your front lawn. Likely Survival
Drinking from dogs bowl. Likely survival
Smoking Pot. Likely survival
Smoking Crack. Likely survival
Shooting Heroin. Likely survival

As you correctly pointed out, none of these things have anything to do with surviving Covid, but there are fucking morons out there who if told by Q or FOX or some other keyboard commando would be willing to try and then claim they were the cure.

[Shermann]

11. Sure, may as well spell it out

The good news is it appears therapeutics are coming out with a really high efficacy.

But even with those, any statements regarding small sample size groups must be carefully hedged.