NJ Gov: Dem now leads by bigger margin in NJ than Rs in VA

[ColinC]

NJ margin is 2.6, VA is 2.5.

Albeit there is still a percent or two to count in NJ in mainly Dem areas so it could still come out to more.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-new-jersey.html

[Walleye]

1. Gee, I heard on TV that Youngkin won a resounding victory, and Murphy barely squeaked by

[ColinC]

2. Right? I must have something wrong

[Walleye]

3. Sort of like when TFG called 306 electoral votes a landslide

[Polybius]

4. And when Biden also got 306 EV's, the media called it close!

Double standard.

[Prof. Toru Tanaka]

14. There was nothing close about the popular vote, though.

Trump got his fat ass taken to the woodshed and was soundly beaten.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Well considering Murphy led in the polls by nearly ten points...

I'd say that narrative is pretty correct. Murphy nearly lost an election no one thought he'd lose. Youngkin won an election where, just a few weeks ago, he looked to be the heavy underdog.

[Walleye]

7. So the polls were wrong. They often are

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Yup. Gotta figure out how we nearly lost a reliably blue state.

And why the polls were off there but on average not off in Virginia. Is our message just not good? Glad we're asking these questions at least with a win in New Jersey instead of a loss, but it's scary how close we came to losing NJ to a far-right candidate who headlined a Stop the Steal rally last year.

[Walleye]

10. All true.

[ColinC]

12. Losing off year elections after presidential elections for the president's party

Is expected. Winning them is less so. Blue or not.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Nope. No one expected losing NJ - or that it would be closer.

And most people thought we'd win Virginia.

[ColinC]

23. Ok you are right about the polls in NJ but the polls in VA were actually closing

And youngkin was actually ahead in the final 538 averages. Regardless of what was expected, what usually happens is the president's party loses both states (last time besides this year was 1981). And the overstating the Democrat in the polls isnt a testament to how poorly he did (since he actually did better than the republican in Virginia), but how inaccurate polling continues to be. This is separate of course, from other areas that Democrats did extremely poorly -like the senate president losing to a truck driver who spend under 200 dollars on his campaign.



Also it is starting to look like the only clear losses that night were Virginia's statewide races. The house of delegates in virginia looks like it may be a tie after all.

[ColinC]

9. The polls narrowed closer to the election

As is expected. They showed him winning between 4-6 points. A 2.6 (or more) win is well within the MOE.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Nope.

Only one poll, the conservative outfit Trafalgar had it narrowing. In that poll, he led by two.

The final polls:

FDU +9
Rutgers +8
Monmouth +11
Stockton +9
Emerson +6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_ciattarelli_vs_murphy-7372.html

[onenote]

11. The pre-election polls generally showed Murphy with between 49 and 51 percent.

That turned out to be pretty damn close (and well within the margin of error).

[Drunken Irishman]

17. The margins were not close. At all.

The polls were way off.

[onenote]

24. The polls missed Ciaterrelli's support

But they were pretty accurate in forecasting the limits of Murphy's support.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. Which is even more damning.

That means he failed to win over even a marginal amount of undecideds. Exact same thing played out in 2020 and 2016 with Trump.

[onenote]

27. I'm not suggesting the result wasn't bad

But it wasn't as "out of the blue" as the breathless press coverage has suggested given that for months Murphy couldn't generate any momentum and was scoring favorability ratings between 42 and 50 percent. His opponent was held back initially by low recognition numbers, but slowly was building support.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. I beg to differ.

It was out of the blue because not only does Murphy have a strong approval rating (only something like a 38% disapproval), polls pointed to a comfortable win against a guy who had led a Stop the Steal rally a year ago.

In fact, I think New Jersey is a more surprising outcome, even with it being a win, than Virginia.

[lees1975]

43. Not really

Youngkin was always within three or four points of McAuliffe, and closed the gap in the last few days. The composite polls in New Jersey were further off but there are some national network polls in there that make assumptions which weren't really present. But Morning Consult and YouGov were within their margins of error in both states.

[lagomorph777]

48. Youngkin seemed consistently very close to McCauliffe.

It appeared to me that the polls were pretty close to correct here.

Sadly.

[kimbutgar]

5. All the media wants to do is attack the Democrats and portray repukes are for the

Working class when it’s a joke that they really don’t care about them.

I’ve haven’t been been able to watch msnbc since Monday. It doom and gloom while not highlighting Murphy was re elected.

[JustAnotherGen]

13. Yep

So can people please leave NJ out of the doom and gloom?

I was at an event last night in support of Pride Network - the room was on fire, fired up, and excited!

It is a solid win!

[SoCalDavidS]

15. Who Cares?

YIPPEE!! So the media is not giving enough credit for one victory rather than another loss.

We still lost VA. It's great that we won in NJ, but the fact we won by 3% or 30% is stupid and irrelevant. A Win is a Win, and a Loss is a Loss.

It's like a baseball team bragging about winning one game 10-0, when they lost the 2nd game 2-1. Again, a win is a win, and a loss is a loss.

And we failed by not winning VA, a state we should have held.

[sunonmars]

18. I would not trust a poll ever again, they are a mess.

[Celerity]

28. not so much in terms of predicting the NJ Dem's per cent, in that they were pretty damn accurate

actual results as of now



the polls

[spanone]

20. GOP's Ciattarelli Digs In Despite Murphy's 65,000-Vote N.J. Lead -Another asshole who won't concede

Last edited Sun Nov 7, 2021, 06:47 PM - Edit history (1)

(Bloomberg) -- Three days after New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy won re-election, Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli has yet to concede. The Associated Press called the tight race for the Democratic incumbent on Wednesday night. Murphy now leads by 65,242 votes.

“No one should be declaring victory or conceding the election until every legal vote is counted,” Ciattarelli said in a video message posted on Twitter on Thursday.

Here’s a look at where things stand:

Tight race:

The margin is 2.6 percentage points -- 50.9% for Murphy and 48.3% for Ciattarelli, according to the AP.

Murphy’s lead has continued to widen since AP declared him the winner.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jersey-gop-candidate-governor-still-182340801.html

[WarGamer]

21. But isn't NJ a dark blue like +20 D State?

[SMC22307]

22. No. (n/t)

[former9thward]

29. Interesting you did not give the stats.

Its 63% D and 36% R.

https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/election-information-svrs.shtml

So +27 D state.

[WarGamer]

36. thanks, I suspected something like that!

[former9thward]

30. Yes

Its 63% D and 36% R.

https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/election-information-svrs.shtml

So +27 D state.

[ColinC]

31. Yes but with a very strong history of electing republicants

Especially in off year elections when democrats hold the WH. In fact this is the first time since 1981 where the president's party did not lose the governorship in NJ.

[LowerManhattanite]

44. THIS.

A thing that many non-tri-state area folk don’t realize is that is that NJ is the major white flight capital that retrograde New Yorkers and much of the city’s police department and fire department rank and file run away to to escape people of color and progressive policies. At one time, the concentration in NYC was mostly in the southern Brooklyn and Staten Island — but it’s those have browned up, (Brooklyn a lot, S.I., just enough to notice) the bridge and tunneling city emergency workers have moved en masse across the river.

The other thing is that NJ’s Essex County which holds the most populous single city in New Jersey — Newark, is one of a fairly small group of municipalities with an actual “Liberal” bent. So yes, while the numbers of Democrats are huge, they are concentrated n places like Newark, Irvington, East Orange and Trenton. Large swaths of the state look like and vote like honest to God flyover country.

[Celerity]

32. +16 D, and yes, other than fat fuck Christie the Rethugs haven't won state-wide for 24 years

in terms of POTUS (last Rethug to win was Bush in '88), US Senate (last Rethug to win an election was in 1972, the Nixon massive landslide), or Gov. The only 2 other Rethug Govs since the 1960's were very moderative, Christine Todd Whitman ('93 and '97), and Thomas Keane (who won in an insanely close race in 1981, a 1,797 vote win, plus won in 1985)

https://www.270towin.com/states/New_Jersey

[ColinC]

39. Presidential GOP candidates usually run far to the right of the state. Governor candidates do not.

They usually run as liberal republicans or more to the center of where the state is politically. The presidential history of the state does reflect where it stands with most of it's gubernatorial candidates. In governors races, NJ is more of D+3.9 state.

[JI7]

33. Not when it comes to Governors

[Drunken Irishman]

35. Beyond Christie, no Republican has won that state in 20 years.

Christie has proven the exception.

In 2017, Murphy won by 15 points.
In 2013, largely on the back of his handling of Hurricane Sandy, and leaning into Obama, Christie won by 22 points.
In 2009, Christie beat the embattled Corzine by 4 points.
In 2005, Corzine won by 10 points.
In 2001, Jim McGreevey won by 14 points.

When you ignore Christie, the Democrats have won by double-digits in all but one election (this one). Even with Christie, McGreevey, Corzine and Murphy all won by double-digits and Corzine's run came after McGreevey resigned due to personal problems (he also came out of the closet).

Christie has been the only Republican since Christine Todd Whitman in 1997 to get any traction - outside this doofus who ran this go around. Every other election hasn't been particularly close.

[ColinC]

38. Your post demonstrates quite well that historically NJ is not a +16 D state for governors

IMHO if it was, regardless of the situation, Christie would not have been able to win by 22 points. The average Democratic lead in the timespan you provided is 3.93 points. So for governors races in the last 20 years, NJ is a D+3.93 state. I think this is largely the case because GOP governor candidates usually run near the center of of where the state is politically. National GOP candidates generally run far to the right of the state.

[Drunken Irishman]

40. Only one Democrat has won by fewer than ten points - Murphy this past November.

They either lose or win big.

Murphy's election absolutely has proven the exception. This is a fact that really can't be debated.

[ColinC]

42. Sure. But the claim being debated is whether it is a +16 D state

If you average all of the elections for governor in the last 20 years, we get an average D win of +3.9. I think this is because in presidential elections, Republicans will run far to the right of where the state usually is, and governor candidates usually don't. Regardless of reasons for each individual race, Governor races give the state an average of Dem +3.9, as opposed to Presidential races Dem +16.

[Drunken Irishman]

45. The claim is more correct than not.

There is a significant partisan advantage for Democrats in New Jersey. That doesn't mean fluke elections don't happen. There are anomalies in every state (see Alabama electing a Democrat Doug Jones to the senate) but at the end of the day, there are one-million more registered Democrats in New Jersey than Republican.

Total, about 40% of New Jersey voters are registered as Democrats, with only 23% registered as Republicans. That means there is a 17 point partisan gap there, just as the poster said.

It doesn't mean every election will amount to the Democrat winning by that much, or even average out to that margin but it does mean they start with a significant advantage compared to the Republican, which is why the Democrat, when they win, typically wins big. Except for last Tuesday.

[ColinC]

47. Just because you have a partisan advantage in registration

Doesn't mean everybody registered are strong democratic voters. And elections are the best metric to decide that. Having moderate to liberal Republicans win somewhat frequently shows that the state is not as strong a democratic state in governor races as in other ways.

[Drunken Irishman]

49. No but the history of New Jersey certainly points to that.

They control every level of government. The governor, assembly, both US Senate seats and 10 of 12 congress districts. It's clear Democrats have a decidedly large advantage in the state, which is represented by their large partisan divide with Republicans, plus the fact only one Republican has won a gubernatorial or senate race twice in the last 20 years - Christie and his two elections.

[ColinC]

50. You are absolutely right.

I guess my point is just more that Republicans have shown very clear success at running statewide in a way that appeals to Democratic voters -RINO types whose success I think, would speak to the success of the Democrats in their states because they have to run on Democratic policies to win. I don't think this last election speaks to Democrats' becoming more unpopular because Republicans run essentially on more democratic policies in order to win statewide. And because those policies are so popular that republicans have to run on them, I would argue it speaks to the success of Democratic policeis and the overall success of theparty in the state -even though you will have the occasional liberal republican win -or close governor race.


I would be more concerned if a Trump candidate got as close a this guy did against Murphy...

[Drunken Irishman]

52. I do agree. I wish Jack Ciattarelli was more of that mold...

I'm very unsettled by the fact New Jersey almost handed the governor's seat to a guy who led a Stop the Steal rally last year.

As awful as Christie is, and he's awful, he's even more reasonable than the new Republican Party. I am terrified that they're playing just well enough in Democratic states to actually pull out a win in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Josh Mandel as a senator? I think it's possible.

[BumRushDaShow]

51. Since Philly is still South Jersey's media market

I'm still stuck back on this guy -

[Cha]

26. omg! Doom & Gloomers

in M$$$$$< * Elsewhere Need to Let this Sink IN!

[Scurrilous]

37. K&R

[UTUSN]

41. K&R

[BradAllison]

46. We were supposed to win NJ comfortably from the outset. n/m

[ColinC]

53. I like to think anything above 51% is comfortable

So far he is ahead by 2.9% and 51% of the vote.

Just because the votes didn't come in in the order we would have liked on election day doesn't make the victory any less substantial.