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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 05:52 PM

“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” (with up dated confirming data re SC)

Last edited Thu Jan 12, 2012, 07:14 PM - Edit history (2)



Edited to add that PPP is tweeting that SC Santorum supporters are leaving for Gingrich.


@Nate_Cohn SC voters are now dropping Santorum for Newt. Earlier polling had suggested the reverse.



If the latest polling is correct then Romney is in big trouble.

His lead in South Carolina is gone and he is running third place in North Carolina


http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/aiken/2012-01-11/sc-poll-mitt-romney-has-small-lead-over-newt-gingrich

As the GOP presidential nomination race settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.

The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll conducted for The Augusta Chronicle by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.

Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 percent fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucuses is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the runner-up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13 percent.

. . . .



“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a nonpartisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”





http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/11/nc-2012-primary-25-gingri_n_1199950.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
25% Gingrich
24% Santorum
22% Romney
9% Paul
4% Huntsman
4% Perry
1% Roemer


Given that Romney's only compelling argument is that he is inevitable and can win elections he will have to come up with something big if these polls are correct.

If they are correct they will prove my long standing prediction that this will not be decided during the pre convention period but will be decided at the convention, even though almost no one else thinks that this is even remotely possible. This civil war is going to go on and on and on.

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Reply “This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” (with up dated confirming data re SC) (Original post)
grantcart Jan 2012 OP
FSogol Jan 2012 #1
arely staircase Jan 2012 #8
City Lights Jan 2012 #2
sharp_stick Jan 2012 #5
City Lights Jan 2012 #6
grantcart Jan 2012 #10
jsmirman Jan 2012 #3
bluestateguy Jan 2012 #4
grantcart Jan 2012 #7
riverwalker Jan 2012 #9

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 05:55 PM

1. Good, It is to our advantage if this "race" drags out to the bitter end, forcing

Willard to spend time and money fighting the other clowns.

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Response to FSogol (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 06:56 PM

8. yes, let it be long, drawn out and brutal - ultimately resolving nothing, thus

leading to a big nasty convention battle. those convention battles never happen in modern times, but a nasty, months long bloodletting from these demons battling for control hell should be politically advantageous for the good guys (us) and just fun to watch.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 05:59 PM

2. That is music to my ears.

The longer it drags on, the better. May they all be battered and bruised (figuratively speaking) by the time it's over.

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Response to City Lights (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 06:03 PM

5. Why figuratively speaking?

Personally I think a WWE cage match debate with all of the contenders would make for compelling television.

They could all try to fight there way to the top of a ladder where Rick Perry's coyote killin' handgun is hanging by a thread and the one to get it wins the nomination.

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Response to sharp_stick (Reply #5)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 06:08 PM

6. I do not want to promote violence of any kind.

Is that wrong?

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Response to City Lights (Reply #6)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 07:13 PM

10. literally no, figuratively yes.


Ever notice how many people use 'literally' when they mean 'figuratively'?


"I mean did you see how fast that car was going, he was moving, literally at the speed of light", lol

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 06:01 PM

3. As some would say

"from your lips to G-d's ears" - with anyone and everyone being free to substitute the deity of their choice.

I *do* think there is some advantage to fighting through a primary in as many states as possible in terms of building organizational structure and momentum, but it would seem that the advantages would be outweighed by the disadvantages here.

Primary after Primary of them - at minimum, killing the candidacy of any potential nominee by the holding of feet to the fire and callings to the carpet for past stances, and at maximum, producing a *truly* unelectable candidate - I think I can get behind that.

Because I think the party is only so many steps away from internal collapse/implosion. The more time they get, the more failing support beams get kicked down in the melee.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 06:02 PM

4. In the 2008 primaries we heard constant hand wringing about Obama and the white working class

The same hand wringing should be made for Willard Romney.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 06:43 PM

7. kick for the edit

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Jan 12, 2012, 07:00 PM

9. hope it drags on and on

Let them keep flinging poo at each other, by the time of the convention, the whole country will be disgusted with GOP.

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