Dem turnout was at record highs in the last round of elections. So was the opposition's
...that signals Democrats will need to turn out even more voters in the next round.
The upcoming midterms are dominated by one confounding political dynamic: the party out-of-power will show up in large numbers to try and reverse the previous loss. All midterm elections favor 'anti' vote, and energizes voters looking to stick it to the opposition.
Conversely, the folks who just won and have their pols in office don't have the same energy, especially if they're mostly satisfied with the president and legislators they just elected. There's just not as much steam to generate among them as you would in a sour grapes voter.
Democrats will be challenged to draw more voters to the party in the midterms, and the most consequential parameters of that challenge lie in the dynamics of either advocating for more (progressivism), or moderating those appeals (centrism) to mollify or improbably appeal to republican or conservative voters.
President Biden and the Democratic leadership put forward a broad and ambitious legislative agenda which has been steadily advancing; infrastructure bill passed, and BBB on the way. The opportunity remaining to both further advance the Democratic agenda and elect more Democrats is neatly embedded in what's yet to be accomplished.
Progressive Democrats will unquestionably press for more progress on issues like voting rights, immigration reform, climate change, justice reform, affordable education and healthcare.
Decidedly more 'moderate' Democrats will press the party to limit these initiatives as a political strategy, in favor of interests other than progressive change. Issues like taxing the wealthy to pay for social spending, limiting moneyed influences on our elections, protecting voting rights, and lowering the costs of medicine, are all subject to resistance from moderate Democrats looking to limit or stifle those progressive initiatives.
Will voters be more compelled to come to the polls because Democrats are progressing in what we've promised voters, or will they be motivated to the polls by Democrats moderating or limiting President Biden's and our Democratic leadership's agenda, as recalcitrant Dems like Manchin and Sinema have done throughout?
Or, will it have little to do with legislative initiatives, at all? While Democrats make steady progress for Americans, will demagoguery about what we're trying to accomplish rule the day?
Whatever the direction of the midterms, we'd likely better get cracking on enacting the things we say we want, because anything still in the air can be easily argued down and dismissed in an election. Better to stand behind what we've done, than what we're promising we'll someday accomplish.
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