We need a new way to measure COVID

[marmar]

We need a new way to measure COVID
By Abdul El-Sayed


(Detroit Metro Times) Throughout the pandemic, Europe has been a harbinger of what’s coming next on this side of the pond. And across Europe, COVID cases are climbing. In the U.K., the current weekly average looks like it did on Christmas of 2020, during the country’s worst surge. The Netherlands is experiencing a pandemic record high in cases right now.

Last week, in the U.S., after months of declines, cases started to climb. It’s only natural to be concerned when cases of a pandemic disease start to go up. After the massive holiday surge last year, it’s not surprising that the news of increasing cases as we prepare for Thanksgiving would set off alarm bells. But there’s another way that Europe’s experience should be instructive: COVID deaths are substantially lower than they have been in the past.

As our anti-COVID armament changes, looking simply at mounting case rates is giving us an increasingly distorted picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve now reached a place where we need a better way to measure it.

Take the U.K., for example. Despite the same number of cases as they experienced last Christmas, the U.K. is experiencing only 27% as much mortality. In the Netherlands, even with record-setting case rates, mortality is only a quarter as high as it was during the next highest case surge over the holidays last year.

The main reason, of course, is vaccines. Though we tend to think of vaccines as reducing case transmission, vaccines were always intended to reduce symptomatic illness. And they do — which is why the mortality rate is so low across Europe. There’s also a lot more testing now. We’re no longer in the Bad Old Days of 2020 when we simply couldn’t catch up with the glut in COVID tests. Today, testing is done quickly, simply, and cheaply. In the U.K., they offer every single person two rapid tests per week. Increased testing means that more of the asymptomatic cases we might have missed in the past are counted alongside symptomatic ones. ..............(more)

https://www.metrotimes.com/detroit/we-need-a-new-way-to-measure-covid/Content?oid=28588325#.YZ-_iJaLaoc.link

[The Magistrate]

1. Sound Points All, Sir

[Ace Rothstein]

2. Hospitalizations are probably the best metric moving forward.

[Shermann]

3. About that massive holiday surge last year...

The exponential growth started in early October, well before the holiday season. This growth continued until Thanksgiving or so, then actually slowed, then peaked around New Years before the rapid decline. So the rapid increases and decreases are inconsistent with holiday get-togethers being the primary cause (although they certainly contributed to spread). The peak occurred much too early for weather to be the primary cause as well. The models don't show any of this oscillation. The reality is that this has never really been explained conclusively.

The current surge began in late October. So there is a possible correlation there, but it could easily be chance.

[Blues Heron]

5. I think those dips were just holiday reductions in testing and reporting

That winter wave actually peaked Jan 8 with over 300,000 daily cases reported.

Scroll down at the link to see the chart

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Blues Heron]

4. one minor quibble - cases have been rising for at least three weeks

Scroll down to see the daily cases graph

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Yonnie3]

6. I have been following Virginia hospitalization data

I track hospitalizations of confirmed and suspected cases in Virginia
How many in the ICU
How many on vents

There is a shift in the data.

Approximately one quarter of the hospitalized folks are in the ICU and half of them are on vents. In late August there was a jump in the percentage on vents from 10~25% to the 50% I see now.

I used the suspected cases because I was looking at hospital asset availability and suspected cases use the same resources.


EDIT to add:

to me that data indicates the cases are more serious.

[Laurelin]

7. It's not all skittles and beer in the NL though

Deaths are down but hospitals are screaming that they're overwhelmed and we're sending patients to Germany. And we're far more vaccinated than most of the US.

[Blues Heron]

8. This guy acts like we've never seen a Covid dashboard

Its not like hospitalizations are being overlooked.