General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDOW down over 1000 points!
I think I'll go back to decorating the house for ⛄🎄
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)From yesterday, this isnt going to look good in the 401k at days end.
Shermann
(9,062 posts)Demovictory9
(37,113 posts)Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)A HERETIC I AM
(24,876 posts)
Be in it for the long haul or not at all.
Shermann
(9,062 posts)dweller
(28,410 posts)Scrivener7
(59,522 posts)dawg
(10,777 posts)and that's what spooks them more than anything.
Amishman
(5,929 posts)In other words, stocks overall are trading at too high a price relative to their earnings and total assets.
Current Shiller P/E ratio is 38.8 and is based on the S&P 500. Historical mean is 16.8, median 15.8
All time high was Dec 1999 at 44.1 - right before the dot com bust. Prior to that, the only time it was ever at 30 or more was October 1929 - right before the Black Tuesday crash.
I see two possible ways this extreme overvaluation works itself out. Either A) we get a crash. B) sustained inflation, prices rising rapidly drives up earnings and reducing the ratio.
True Dough
(26,667 posts)I agree with your assessment. The markets have been "frothy" for a long time. Cycles are inevitable.
oioioi
(1,130 posts)Thanks for pointing this out. Equity and real estate prices don't have room to go higher. Fiscal liquidity flood and unsustainable interest rates are now pressuring wages and consumer prices. Supply chain weakness and full employment are aberrant. Depressed sectors like travel, entertainment, tourism, etc. seem to be offset by present economic restructuring and fiscal stimulus - we can dream, but this transition won't last forever.
With another year of COVID curtailing economic activity, rising inflation, accelerating climate change indicators amid stirring geopolitical uneasiness, it's difficult to find a solid argument for an exuberant equities outlook. The scenario of rapid prices pushing up earnings in dollar terms won't fix bloated P/E ratios - equity prices can't outpace an extended period of inflation with consequent wage and social pressure. Hello UBI?
ProfessorGAC
(76,704 posts)We've got 2 giant companies with revenues a third of market cap. Revenues, not earnings. One of them showed pretax earnings of 2% of market cap. This is irrational.
By contrast, Walmart has a market cap of around 60% of revenues. This made their earnings nearly 40% of market cap.
I know 2 companies don't exert that much leverage on the whole market index, but they're the extreme examples, not the only examples of irrational valuation.
CanonRay
(16,171 posts)I mean like Wednesday. Great timing as usual...
Scrivener7
(59,522 posts)Chipotle just before the norovirus nonsense. But in the end the Chipotle stock profits paid for most of my new car.
jmbar2
(7,989 posts)beaglelover
(4,466 posts)beaglelover
(4,466 posts)your money in the market today.
Wounded Bear
(64,324 posts)Probably some profit taking for xmas shopping cash.
durablend
(9,269 posts)Of course TPTB will make sure we never see it and blame Biden for it.
Beakybird
(3,397 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(69,851 posts)Shermann
(9,062 posts)Beakybird
(3,397 posts)gulliver
(13,985 posts)bucolic_frolic
(55,140 posts)The initial Virus mutation news will fade, but it has confirmed the deflationary theme that has been floating around for about two months. Commodities are falling, speculation bubble pricked, bitcoin too, and underneath it all the level of debt.
Ron Green
(9,870 posts)when we ought to do the exact opposite?
Why continue to consume at a previous level?
Why accumulate money thats not tied to actual goods?
Why use debt to expand life experiences?
Why support any economic growth?
COVID-19 and its pandemic, and now its variants, along with the climate crisis, are serving as lessons to the world; sadly theyre mostly being ignored.
onenote
(46,142 posts)Sarcasm
Ron Green
(9,870 posts)No sarcasm.
We need to learn to live small on this earth, and we need to do it right now.
onenote
(46,142 posts)Interesting.
Ron Green
(9,870 posts)healthy planet. If youve noticed, lots of jobs are going unfilled at the moment, as people reassess their priorities and wage slavery is called into question.
Maybe one result of the pandemic will be a new and better economics. And it aint the financial markets that will lead the way.
GoCubsGo
(34,914 posts)It goes up. It goes down. It was at a record high just a couple days ago. I'm sure the media will spin this as a "disaster for Biden," while ignoring it completely when it goes up and breaks another record in a few days.
IcyPeas
(25,475 posts)iemanja
(57,757 posts)over the next few weeks. But yeah, I'm watching mine too.
iemanja
(57,757 posts)That's the broader indicator.
Xavier Breath
(6,640 posts)Mattress helps us sleep at night.
ProfessorGAC
(76,704 posts)...the Dow is up 15.5% & the S&P 24.2% year to date.
Johonny
(26,178 posts)It's not even a correction, people are acting like it's a bear market in this thread.