Prediction: SC does NOT overturn Roe v Wade...

[brooklynite]

They uphold limited window for abortion access in Mississippi law.

[Polybius]

1. So the new limit will be that states can ban abortions after 15 weeks?

You may be right.

[Tomconroy]

2. As good a result as you could hope for. I read that the only abortion clinic in MS

doesn't do abortions after 16 weeks, so it's possible the court just says a 15 week limit isn't an undue burden on what still is a woman's right to an abortion. One question from Roberts seemed to suggest that was what he was thinking. Then he just has to find one more non-bombthrower

[mcar]

3. They won't formally overturn Roe

they will, however, gut it so that it is overturned. Roberts and his Republican colleagues can claim it is not overturned, thereby having it both ways.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

4. That is the same as overturning Roe in the real world

I listen to the oral argument and I am really depressed. Again you are wrong in your analysis. Doing away with the viability test will effective overturn Roe in the real world First it would be 15 weeks, then 12 and finally it will end up at 6 weeks which effectively eliminates Roe

[bullwinkle428]

5. It will be a DE FACTO overturn, as opposed to DE JURE, but

the end result will essentially be the same.

[FBaggins]

6. They might be able to do so...

... but I don't think they can keep Casey alive while upholding the Mississippi law.

[ismnotwasm]

7. Yes, I think that's what this looks like.

Many more lawsuits to come

[beaglelover]

8. That's what all the experts are saying on the TeeVee.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. How can you have a limit when you don't or can't know you're exceeding the limit?

[Torchlight]

10. A riveting presumption

I have no guess on this. Just a wait and see sense of eventual resolution.

[JohnSJ]

13. It is the analysis from the Washington Post

[Torchlight]

16. And I still have no guess as to the outcome.

[JohnSJ]

11. That limited window is effectively overturning Roe V wade. Even assuming someone only

wanted an abortion if there were severe birth defects, 15 weeks isn't necessarily enough time

and it won't end here either. This is going to be pushed for all cases, rape, incest, and life of the mother, and I can see them pushing it for various birth control also

The SC is determining the viability at 15 weeks, and what they are saying is 15 weeks is more than enough

As usual this will never affect those with means

and I would add, when Susan Sarandon was warned that abortion rights were at stake in 2016 she said that the potential of a trump presidency packing the SC with anti-abortion judges wasn't a realistic possibility.

and in case some forget, Ms. Sarandon did a BBC interview ahead of the 2016 election saying she though Clinton would win, and that her goal was to shake up the political system with a third-party, and would not feel any regret if trump is elected president because she does not "vote with my vagina"

That is white privilege

so for those in their "wisdom" refused to vote for Hillary in the general election by either voting third party or not voting, THANKS FOR NOTHING

and it did make a difference

In every critical swing state Hillary lost by less than 1%, while Jill Stein received 1% of the vote in those critical swing states

[electric_blue68]

14. I'd say...

white, well off, and in a Blue State privilege.
Was furious with Saradon.

and I aboslutely voted for Hillary.

[JohnSJ]

15. Thank-you. You are absolutely right. It won't impact the affluent

[electric_blue68]

17. No problem 👍

[betsuni]

35. +1

[StevieM]

38. Gary Johnson took more votes from HRC than Stein did IMO.

And at the end of the day it wouldn't have mattered had it not been for James Comey's antics. He dominated that election from start to finish.

The fake email controversy redefined Hillary as a politician and as a human being. Without Comey's misconduct it never would have destroyed her the way that it did and she would have beaten Trump by a very comfortable margin.

[d_r]

12. Are the fetuses going

To have some sort of time stamps? Expiration dates?

[elleng]

20. Something like that, sorry, not sarcastic, because as science progresses, 'viability' changes,

fetuses can survive out of the womb at earlier stages.

The law should reflect these changes, that is, the right to abortion should be codified.

[Demsrule86]

25. When I had a amnio 20 years ago...I would not have been permitted to have an abortion

past the first trimester...And if the Mother's like is in danger or the Fetus is not viable...I don't give two fucks...and abortion needs to be offered regardless of the timing. I miscarried some years ago...and it was hell to carry around a dead baby for four days before the procedure could be done...I can't imagine what it is like for women in Georiga now who are investigated for miscarriage and told to carry dead babies around for months.

[Bok_Tukalo]

18. I believe it will be overturned.

Kegger sounded like he was staking out overturning Roe as the middle ground in the argument; claim the Constitution is neutral on the issue of abortion. I believe there are 5 justices ready to overturn Roe. The question is whether or not Roberts joins them.

[gldstwmn]

19. This is settled law. If they tinker with this then they are

handing us the mid terms. The court needs to be expanded. I imagine Justice Roberts is not pleased with this as his wish for his tenure on the court was for it not to become political and it is becoming just that. The loss of Ruth Bader Ginsburg is proving to be a devastating blow for this country.

[JohnSJ]

21. No. The loss of Hillary in 2016 was devastating, because some refused to either vote third party or

not vote at all

I don’t think this will change anything with the midterms, good or bad

It will be more dependent on the economy

[Demsrule86]

23. It seems from your moniker that you are a man and I think you are wrong...women will hand the GOP

a defeat in the midterms if Roe is done away with.

[JohnSJ]

30. Yes, I am a guy, who is very pro-choice and women's rights, worker's rights, Civil Rights,

Environmental Rights, etc

I thought the same thing you did in 2016, that there would be no way that a sexist, bigot, and racist would occupy the WH. There was no question in 2016 that the SC was at stake, and I presumed that women would come out in force, and not allow that to happen.

It didn't quite work out that way though, and add what has happened with redistricting, will make it even more challenging

I believe the percentage of white women who voted for Trump was something like 47%, compared to 45% for Clinton, and in the 2018 midterms, it was about 50-50, and the republicans gained two seats in the Senate in 2018. In 2020 we barely won the Senate and House.

I hope Roe is preserved, and I don't mean with the 15 week limit, which is an insult, and the fact that the Mississippi law doesn't even allow an exception for rape and incest, should have every women in the country voting against any republican running for office in the midterms, but because that didn't happen in 2016 when it was very obvious what would happen if trump won, makes me very uneasy.

[betsuni]

37. Agree.

"The weak effects of gender consciousness are not surprising. Unlike racial solidarity among African-Americans or racial attitudes among whites, gender consciousness has not typically been a substantial force in modern American political behavior. As the political scientists Nancy Burns and Donald Kinder have written, 'The social organization of gender emphasizes intimacy between men and women; the social organization of race emphasizes separation between whites and blacks. Separation fosters solidarity among African Americans. Integration impairs solidarity among women.'" Sides, Tesler, Vavreck, "Identity Crisis"

[gldstwmn]

28. Says a man.

[JohnSJ]

31. What kind of sexist inuendo is that? In 2016 it was pretty obvious what would happen to the SC if

trump won

[StevieM]

39. I appreciate your comments but I feel like you (and others) are failing to recognize the dominant

factor in the 2016 election.

It was James Comey. He was more important than all other factors combined IMO. He totally detroyed the Democratic nominee with his illegitimate behavior.

[JohnSJ]

40. Comey was the coup de grce so to speak

[Demsrule86]

22. I think it would be the end of the court if they overturn Roe...as Sotomayor said there is nothing

in the constitution that makes SCOTUS the final arbiter. I think states will be allowed to restrict abortion in terms of timing etc, but this may end the debate on whether it is legal or not...

[mahatmakanejeeves]

24. Dave Weigel: Very good chance of Roe being overturned in June, and decent chance of ...

Very good chance of Roe being overturned in June, and decent chance of a SCOTUS opening right after that with Biden nominating a Black female judge.

Link to tweet

[Wounded Bear]

26. I agree. I don't think Roberts will allow an outright overturn of Roe...

but the restricted version will probably pass.

[JohnSJ]

32. That restricted version is effectively the end of Roe. 15 weeks is an insult, and the fact that the

Mississippi law does not even make an exception for rape or incest, makes it even more insidious

[Wounded Bear]

33. I don't disagree at all...nt

[JohnSJ]

34. I know, I am just blowing off steam, not toward you at all

[former9thward]

36. Roberts is just one vote of nine.

He can't stop anything that five others want.

[FakeNoose]

27. It means anti-choice wins

It means that no woman has the right to choose whether she will give birth or not.

It means the Bernie Bros who refused to vote for Hillary in 2016 have gone ahead and screwed all of us.

[gldstwmn]

29. I don't see how looking backwards helps this in any way.

We need to look ahead. Our entire world has undergone drastic changes since 2016.

[Voltaire2]

41. Distinction without a difference.